Category: Blackpool

It’s Play Off Time!

Over the last few seasons, I’ve spent a fair amount of time musing about The Curse Of Fourth but then QPR earned a jammy victor over Derby a year ago and so this year it’ll have to be The Disadvantage Of Finishing Fourth. Unfortunately, my old laptop has finally given up the ghost and may have taken all my spreadsheets with it; as I also have a family birthday to attend this weekend, this preview is an overview. With any luck, I’ll be able to write a comprehensive preview for the final.

Brentford

Last ten games: 4-4-2

Record against the other playoff teams: 1-1-4 (lost twice to Middesbrough, failed to score in both games)

Playoff record: losing semi finalists 1990/91, 1994/95, 2004/05, 2005/06 (third tier), losing finalists 1996/97, 2001/02, 2012/13 (third tier)

Doesn’t look good does it? You don’t qualify for the playoffs by being an average team but it’s pretty clear to me that those four defeats in six games against their immediate rivals indicate that the Bees aren’t good enough to go any further this season. How they react to any potential disappointment will be crucial, especially as Mark Warburton will be leaving as soon as the season is over. Getting this far might be the high point in this particuar era at Griffin Park; the Bees are the first team to reach the Championship playoffs after having won promotion from League One at the end of the previous season since Bristol City in 2008 and that didn’t end well for the Robins.

Ipswich

Last ten games: 5-2-3

Record against the other playoff teams: 2-1-3 (lost twice to Norwich, failed to score in either game)

Playoff record: losing semi finalists 1986/87, 1996/97, 1997/98, 1998/99, 2003/04, 2004/05 (all second tier)

The signs of a revival in the fortunes of the Tractor Boys started when Mick McCarthy took over the reigns at Portman Road in November 2012 and the incremental improvement – including a very good defensive record at home – has resulted in their first playoff spot for a decade, but the sad truth is that Ipswich have been victimised by their near neighbours recently. Their playoff history is disastrous and sixth placed teams do not have a good record in the Championship playoffs. Last winners: Blackpool in 2010. Even if Town don’t go up, I doubt they’ll be playing in League One in five years time.

Middlesbrough

Last ten games: 6-1-3

Record against the other playoff teams: 5-0-1 (beat Brentford by an aggregate score of 5-0)

Playoff record: losing semi finalists 1990/91 (second tier)

In form, good record against the other three teams but although there’s no longer a full blown Curse of Fourth, it’s fair to say that over the last decade fourth placed teams have not done well. One win – last season – and three losses in four finals in that period does not bode well. That being said, Boro had the best defensive record in the Championship in 2014/15 based on a very tight record at the Riverside (only Sheffield Wednesday scored more than twice) and my initial doubts about Aitor Karanka’s suitability for the job have long since disappeared. So basically in a good position to return to the Premier League after six seasons in the second tier, just as long as Karanka doesn’t send Dimitrios Konstantinopoulous up for a corner…

Norwich

Last ten games: 6-3-1

Record against the other playoff teams: 3-0-3 – only one side scored in all of those games, which the punters amongst you might want to take note of.

Playoff record: none.

Arguably the in form team of the quartet, but their form against the other three teams is either boom or bust and they have no previous form in the post season. Not only that they somehow managed to lose twice against an unremarkable Reading side this season, but the Canaries failed to beat Rotherham and also lost both games against Middlesbrough without scoring. Alex Neil has been an excellent appointment but he may have to finish the job next season. Third placed clubs have reached the final in eight of the last ten seasons, but have only won half of those finals. The last triumph in the Championship playoffs by a third placed team was West Ham, who’d also been relegated from the Premier League at the end of theprevious season.

Verdict: Norwich are the favourites to reach the final at the very least, but over the last decade newly relegated teams are three times more likely to lose in the semis as they are to win the whole thing. That leaves the door open for Middlesbrough, who ultimately lost out on automatic promotion after that mad game at Fulham but who weren’t that far off the pace of either Bournemouth or Watford. Ipswich are an intriguing prospect and could be amongst the pacesetters in the autumn; Brentford are a genuine wild card, but both of them face an uphill battle in the semi finals.

Title, Playoff Places On The Line

So who’s ready for the last day of the regular season?

At the top:

Either Watford or Bournemouth will win the title. Middlesbrough could theoretically be promoted, but there’d be a very serious enquiry if that was the case. Ipswich, Derby, Brentford and Wolves will have to divide two playoff places between them, with a very real possibility of a Norwich/Ipswich playoff semi final.

Bookie’s verdict: The Hornets are short priced to win the title; but they can’t split Norwich or Boro to win the playoffs. Surprisingly, Wolves are the rank outsiders.

At the bottom:

Just the sound of apathy and broken dreams combined with tumbleweed.

Where to watch it:

Sky Sports have two live games (Derby v Reading, SS1 and Blackburn v Ipswich on SS2), which means that in all likelihood the ex-pros on Sky Sports news will spend a couple of hours screaming and making daft noises every time something even moderately exciting happens between noon and 2pm. If for some reason you miss everything, the one thing the Football League Show will probably be remembered for are their time stamped montages and so you’ve got the choice of waiting until almost midnight to watch the highlights on BBC1 or recording/downloading/whatever.

What to watch out for:

Sheffield Wednesday have only won twice in their last ten league visits to Vicarage Road and haven’t won consecutive league games there since the mid 1980s; they won last season’s game…Bournemouth have only won two of their eleven away games against the teams in the current top half of the table in 2014/15 – remarkably, that includes their astonishing 8-0 win at Birmingham City in October. Stat of the entire season: the Cherries have only ever won four times at Charlton in the league, but the last two victories were forty years apart. The last success: April 1975.

Three of the four teams competing for the last couple of playoff places are at home: the odd men out are Ipswich, who haven’t beaten Blackburn at Ewood Park in the league since August 1991. Town’s victory at Watford last month has been their only win in their last half a dozen away games; I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, but I think it’s a case of ‘there’s always next season’ for Ipswich.

It’s not that straightforward for the other three either. Between them, Derby and Wolves have failed to beat Millwall, Reading and Wigan at home this season, which goes some way to explain why both of them are having to go the long way round to reach the Premier League. Brentford drew with Millwall and beat Reading at Griffin Park, but with both the Bees and Wolves having to play teams that have already been relegated it’s hardly a walk in the park. For the record, Wigan have won four of their last five league games at Griffin Park, Reading have won four of their last five league games at Derby…and Millwall haven’t won at Wolves since August 1928.

Something you may have missed (I know I did):

Last week Blackpool became the first team to go an entire season without an away win in the second tier since Bradford City ‘achieved’ that feat in 1989/90. Their last away success was a 2-0 win at Wigan just over a year ago…

There will be an update as soon as the games finish, but you’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out if either Preston or MK Dons will be joining Bristol City in next season’s competition.

Update: Bournemouth won the Championship with a win at Charlton forty years after their last one; Watford drew with Sheffield Wednesday. Norwich/Ipswich and Middlesbrough/Brentford are the playoff games. Reading won their fifth game at Derby in the last six to send the Rams down to eighth place and emphasising once again that the defeated playoff finalists from previous seasons don’t have much of a chance to win promotion at the end of the following season.

I’ll be back on either Wednesday/Thursday with the playoff preview.

Game of the Week: Norwich v Middlesbrough

I really don’t want to start yet another post with a discussion about how tight things are at the top so at the risk of annoying Derby fans,  even though the rams beat Blackpool 4-0 during the week, results elsewhere meant last season’s defeated playoff finalists won’t be going up automatically.

This evening there’s a huge game at Carrow Road (Sky Sports 1, 7;45 kick off), notably because it’s the last game this season between the current top six. Norwich are undefeated against their immediate rivals at home, whilst Middlesbrough have been pretty ropey on their travels against the same teams; three defeats in four games with their only goal coming at Derby last month.

The Canaries also seem to have the advantage of playing two of the strugglers in their games following this one but don’t let that fool you. Four of Norwich’s nine defeats in the Championship have been against teams in the bottom half of the table, including a brace against Reading. City travel to Rotherham next weekend in a game that could also be significant for the Millers, but I’d be worried if I was a Canaries fan. A five game unbeaten streak and only one defeat in fifteen indicates another loss is coming soon.

Boro have been goalshy generally on the road this season, failing to score in nine outings this season and only picking up three points in those games. As I mentioned earlier, their away form against the other promotion candidates has been poor but their recent performances on the road also haven’t been much to write home about. Five defeats in the last six (including at Reading and Forest) doesn’t augur well for this evening, especially as Boro have only won once in the league at Carrow Road since November 1997, although they have drawn half of their last ten trips to Norfolk.

Verdict: I can’t see middlesbrough winning this one, but with both Bournemouth and Watford not playing until tomorrow afternoon, a draw would be a potential disaster for both teams if they want to win automatic promotion.

Tuesday night’s game at the New Den was eventful wasn’t it! More red cards than goals and a rare home win for the Milwall. That result means that the only significant game at the bottom is Wigan v Brighton. If the Latics lose, that’s it; they’ve only lost two of their five meetings with the Seagulls in Lancashire since the sides met for the first time in October 1987 but as mentioned earlier this week, Wigan have been terrible at home. It doesn’t help that the only aspect of Brighton’s performance that’s recognisable from last season is their stingy away defence – they’ve only conceded three fewer goals than Bournemouth on their travels.

As for the FA Cup, I simply can’t see Reading stopping Arsenal. Without wanting to dust off the old cliches one more time, although it’s about time a second tier team won the competition again, Reading simply don’t fit the profile. Southampton, Sunderland and West Ham were all amongst the better second tier sides during the seasons they won the FA Cup in the mid to late 1970s and early 1980s, which isn’t something that The Royals can claim this season; just one win in their last ten and on course for their worst league position since they were promoted from the third tier in 2002 isn’t exactly the stuff cup winners are made of. Their 1927 counterparts had won the old Third Division South during the previous season and – apart from knocking out Manchester United in the third round – didn’t have a particularly tough set of games. This season’s Royals have had a similar run; Arsenal are the first team they’ve met from a higher division and Reading have never beaten the gunners in any competition.

There may not be any updates on Saturday if there’s anything to report, as I’m attending a very significant game…

Down and Out in Blackpool and Wigan

Well, it’s three weeks since the last post and the only thing that’s been settled is that Blackpool have been relegated. No suprise there; the Tangerines were 6/4 for the drop at the time I wrote their season preview in August. all that remains at the bottom is who will be joining them in League One next august. This might be where the remaining surprises are: even though Millwall and Wigan look doomed, none of the clubs from Reading onwards can’t afford to take their eyes off the ball over the next month.

As a matter of housekeeping, Gary Caldwell is Wigan’s new manager after Malky Mackay was sacked on Monday. In keeping with the policy of promoting former players with no managerial experience, Neil Harris is in temporary charge of Millwall, but I’ll be returning to the Lions later.

At the top, nothing appears to have changed but that’s not exactly true if you dig deeper. Any of the top eight could still go up, but the curse of losing the playoff final seems to have struck again. Derby had been top as February drew to a close but seven games without win seems to have condemned the Rams to the playoffs once again. For what it’s worth, I’ve got Bournemouth winning the title by a point and Norwich edging out Watford on goal difference for automatic promotion; the Hornets are the most improved team of those sides in the competition last season, but it’s worth emphasising how well both Brentford and Wolves have performed since promotion from League One last May.

So what’s on the menu this weekend? There are two games tonight: Bournemouth may be able to temporarily improve their lead at the top if they can win at Brighton (Sky Sports 1, 7:30pm for idle studio chatter, 7:45pm for the game) and having won their other five away games against the dirty half dozen at the bottom, Eddie Howe’s men are favourites to take all three points. A defeat for the Seagulls combined with a Wigan win at Fulham would make the bottom of the table even more interesting, but as usual there’s a catch. Brighton haven’t lost at home to the Cherries since September 1988 and Wigan haven’t won at Fulham since October 2006 – when both sides were in the Premier League.

Tomorrow there are two games that will have an impact on both ends of the table. Rotherham travel to Middlesbrough with a seven point cushion between them and Millwall but one away win since Christmas is nothing to write home about, as are the seven defeats in ten away games that the Merry Millers have suffered against the teams in the top half of the table. Conversely, Boro’s two home defeats have been to sides that probably should have done better this season, so they can be caught off guard under the right circumstances: Rotherham’s best chance of coming away with something is a draw as they’ve not won on Teeside since March 1965, when they won 5-3!

Game of the day is at the New Den, where Watford are the visitors. Millwall’s 2-1 win over Charlton last Friday was their first home win since October (!) but they’ve not won consecutive home matches in the same season since September 2013 and have won three points from 24 in home games against the current top ten, so their chances of staying up depend almost entirely on winning tomorrow. The main problem facing Neil Harris is that Watford have been pretty merciless against the strugglers this season, winning nine of their ten games against the current bottom six and losing only lost two of their ten visits to Bermondsey since February 1998; it’s all very well talking about belief, but it’s been clear for a few seasons that both talent and ability have been missing from Millwall and to some extent their current position has been inevitable for a while. If they are relegated, it may be a few seasons before Millwall are back in the Championship.

I’ll be back early next week for a look at the last midweek programme of the season.

Update: Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Watford all won. Wigan and Millwall are still seven points adrift of Rotherham.

Reading Need To Step Up This Evening

Tonight’s big question is whether Reading can reach the semi finals of the FA Cup for the first time in donkey’s years – coverage of the quarter final replay against Bradford City is on BBC1, kick off 7:30pm. The Royals are favourites but have only won three of their ten home games in the Championship since the start of November and four of their ten home ties in the FA Cup since January 2007. The 2-1 victory over Brighton last Tuesday was their first at home since the end of January and the first of Jamie Mackie’s goals was the first time Reading had scored at home in the league at home for almost six hours.

Then there’s this gem: Reading’s record at home against Bradford is awful. One win in Berkshire in the last ten meetings can’t really be interpreted as anything else, but the only time Reading have beaten the Bantams in a cup game at home was way back in February 1988, when Bradford lost in extra time of the quarter final of the long forgotten Simod cup.

Extra time is a possibility this evening. The prize is a trip to Wembley to face Arsenal in the middle of next month, but I’d be surprised if either side got past the Gunners in the semi final.

There’s more or less a full midweek programme on Tuesday and Wednesday, but with eleven points between Bournemouth and Wolves and the possibility of any of the top five taking over at the top the overall situation remains as unclear and competitive as it has been for most of the season. The outstanding game is Derby v Middlesbrough. The Rams came from behind to earn a draw at Carrow Road on saturday, whilst Middlesbrough ultimately ran roughshod over Ipswich in the lunchtime game. Derby have won three of the last four encounters in the league when they’ve had home advantage over Boro, but those wins are the only victories in eight matches in Derby since the start of the century.

The bottom of the table got fractionally more interesting following Wigan‘s win at Rotherham, but with Blackpool and Millwall both losing it’s only really the last relegation place that’s still to be decided. Despite the victory, Wigan are still six points adrift of safety and have to play Brighton, Millwall and Fulham in an eight day period next month as well as entertaining Watford tomorrow.

I’ll be back on Friday for a look at the weekend’s games but after that I’m taking a break although I may be back for Easter Monday’s games.