FA Cup 3rd Round Preview 2019

Happy New Year!

Although it’s the FA Cup that takes precedence this week, you must have failed to notice that there were some interesting (to say the least) games over the Christmas period.

I’ll return to the League next week, but suffice to say the holiday programme in the Championship was as entertaining and unpredictable as ever.

It’s the usual format for the FA Cup: I’ve selected the most and least competitive ties for each of the possible divisional combinations with an ‘honourable mention’ where appropriate for games that might provide some talking points. All kick offs are 3pm today unless stated.

Premier League Opposition

Derby v Southampton

Fifth meeting in the FA Cup, Derby have yet to lose any of their ties against the Saints since their first meeting in the competition 130 years ago. Last match: 2-0, 21 years ago.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Derby couldn’t be any more Derby at the moment: they’ve only lost one of their last six home games but haven’t won since the start of December. The Rams haven’t also won a home FA Cup tie for four years.

Until winning at Huddersfield just before Christmas, Southampton had lost five of their last six away games  although to be fair that includes a League Cup defeat on penalties at Leicester. They’ve only lost one of their last six away FA Cup games, at eventual winners Chelsea last season.

Manchester City v Rotherham (tomorrow, 2pm)

It would go down as one of the all time FA Cup upsets if Rotherham won at the Etihad, but there are a number of reasons to suspect that’s not going to happen.

This game will be their third meeting in the cup: 40 years ago Rotherham drew at Maine Road but lost the replay 4-2 at Millmoor. However it’s worth remembering that since 2010, Rotherham have only won two of their last seven away FA Cup ties and they’ve not won an away game in the Championship since April 2016. Hardly inspires confidence does it?

Possible upset: Bristol City v Huddersfield (today, 5:30pm)

All Championship

A question of priorities in both of these games, with the game at Loftus Road being the most interesting one considering the results over the Christmas period. Leeds and WBA are aiming for automatic promotion, after a poor start QPR are only four points of the playoff places and Wigan‘s recent run of terrible form could mean that the Latics are sucked into a relegation battle that looked unlikely a few weeks ago.

QPR v Leeds (tomorrow, 2pm)

This will be their third meeting in competition, the most recent was in February 1987 when Leeds won by the odd goal in three before reaching the semi finals. The first and only match in the FA Cup in London was 87 years ago (QPR won 3-1) but that was held at the White City Stadium.

Leeds have only lost two of their eight trips to Loftus Road since 2000 and won the last game they played there by 3-1.

WBA v Wigan (12:30pm)

First meeting in the FA Cup but Wigan’s second trip to the Hawthorns in ten days – the Latics lost 2-0 on Boxing Day – but that was the first time West Brom had won at home since mid November and their momentum seems to have slowed down in recent weeks. That’s still loads better than Wigan’s away record: without a win in eleven and earning just two points from the 33 available over that period. It seems inconceivable that they were in the top ten when they beat the Baggies in October.

Honourable mention: Millwall v Hull (Sunday, 2pm)

League One Opponents

Accrington Stanley v Ipswich

Have never met in any competition, but there’s an above average change that this might be the first of many encounters over the next 12 months – this one has upset written all over it. Stanley’s flirtation with the League One playoffs was brief but they seem to established themselves as a solid mid table side in the increasingly polarised landscape of the third tier even though they’ve only won two of their last ten games. Ipswich have lost six of their last seven road trips in the Championship and haven’t scored an away league goal for over seven hours.

Brentford v Oxford

Third meeting in comp but the first since January 1964: in the two previous games at Griffin Park the teams won once each. Neither team has been particularly good form recently: Brentford have only one of their last ten games but weren’t beaten over the Christmas period whilst Oxford haven’t won an away game in League One this season and have lost three in a row in the same competition.

Since 2000 at Griffin Park: 3-1-1, last meeting was a 4-0 Oxford victory in the League Cup in August 2015.

Other games to monitor in this category: Luton v Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough v Peterborough. Head over to Buzzin’ League One Football for a quick look at those matches.

Opponents from outside the EFL

Sheffield United v Barnet (tomorrow, 2pm)

First ever meeting in any competition; the Blades had an outstanding Christmas (more of that next week) and have only lost one home FA Cup tie in the last seven years. Oddly enough, Barnet’s win at Bristol Rovers was only their second victory in an away FA Cup tie in the last seven years: this looks spectacularly one sided.

If anything unexpected happens – and I think it’s possible in a couple of games – I’ll be posting an update on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

Championship Xmas Post 2018

Welcome to the annual renewal of the Post of Christmas Past.

This week – as is usually the case in this post – you’ll be learning who will probably win promotion and who will probably be relegated at the end of the season.

However, this year there’s something different about Christmas in the Championship…but naturally you’ll have to read the entire post to find out what it is.

Despite thinking that the Sheffield United had a decent chance of beating WBA last weekend, the actual result didn’t disprove my theory that Chris Wilder’s team aren’t automatic promotion candidates even if they are one of the better teams in the division.

On to the sprouts and turkey. Over the past half decade, a team is more likely to be promoted if they’re in the top three on Boxing Day evening. Only once in the last half decade has a team been promoted after being outside the top six on 26/12 and that was Norwich in 2014/15, but last season Bristol City became the fourth club in the last five seasons to be in the top six at close of play on Boxing Day not to win promotion.

Here’s where the plot thickens and where I’m also likely to risk drawing the wrath of Leeds fans once again – but I’d recommend reading the rest of these next couple of paragraphs. I wouldn’t be too surprised if either Derby or Leeds are in the top six at the end of Boxing Day and end up blowing promotion – both clubs have been in exactly that position at least three times over the last five years and haven’t managed to cross the line. Derby in particular seem to have issues: they were third in 2014 and top a year later but blew it; that’s why it’s actually really difficult to gauge Frank Lampard’s ability as a manager: the Rams could have a cardboard cut out of Brian Clough in charge and still be ‘there or thereabouts’ every season. If we go back a few years, the same was true of Cardiff, who are now two points outside the Premier League relegation zone and preparing to face Manchester United tomorrow.

If – as looks likely – Leeds are in the top two, that’ll be their highest position after the Boxing Day programme since they were promoted back to the Championship in 2010. This season they’re arguably the most balanced team in the division and finally look like the real deal, but because I’m a neutral it would be wrong of me not to have a nagging doubt about their promotion chances. We’ll see but I’ll be pleased if I’m proven wrong.

At the wrong end of the table, the teams in the bottom five after the Boxing Day games are far more likely to be relegated – in fact, over the last five seasons all of the relegated teams were in the bottom five on the evening of December 26th. The bottom two are usually – but not always – doomed and I think it’s probably time to stick a fork in Ipswich and Bolton. The Tractor Boys have to beat both Sheffield United and QPR in their next two games to stand any chance of escaping the bottom three and Bolton have been in this predicament in three of the last four seasons.

As for who might accompany them, it also shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that both Millwall and Rotherham are struggling either but if Sheffield Wednesday‘s defence gets much worse they’ll have a fight for survival on their hands – and as I was writing this, they sacked Jos Luhukay. I’d also keep an eye on Brentford, the wheels seem to have come off since Dean Smith left for Aston Villa, with new boss Thomas Frank losing eight of his first ten games. Reading – who have a tough looking three game schedule coming up – aren’t out of the woods either.

I normally take the mickey out of the scheduling of live games over the festive period, but this is where the big difference is this season. There is ONE Championship game over Christmas and that’s Sheffield United v Derby (Boxing Day 3pm); Sky Sports seem to have finally realised that showing multiple games over the holidays is a waste of time. The new contract with the EFL has not gone down well at all with the clubs (especially the so-called ‘bigger’ ones or as I like to call them, the moaners who think they should be in the Premier League) and I suspect the midweek red button service may not have gone down as well as Sky Sports may have thought it might have done.

Saturday December 22nd

An interesting one as three of the top six are away at teams in the bottom six: Middlesbrough‘s trip to Reading features two sides that have combined for one win in their last twelve outings. I can’t see Sheffield United having any problems with Ipswich or Rotherham troubling WBA. As I wrote that, I suddenly had the feeling that at least one of those games will provide the weekly upset that the Championship is well known for.

Sunday December 23rd

Aston Villa v Leeds (Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 1:30pm kick off)

Wednesday December 26th

I’ve already mentioned Derby v Sheffield United, but the games at Norwich, Bolton and Millwall all look like they’re worth following – especially as Rotherham are the guests at Bolton and Reading make the journey to South London. It could be one of those key afternoons at the bottom of the table.

Saturday December 29th

Norwich host Derby and Ipswich travel to Middlesbrough.

Right, that’s me done for another year. Back for the FA Cup Third Round, have a Happy Christmas and thanks for reading.

GOTW: Lions v Tigers

Making a goalkeeping mistake in a high profile game to give your nearest rivals a vital away win is never a good idea.

Yet that’s exactly what happened to Sheffield United last Saturday lunchtime:

I managed to get my predictions for that one – and the WBA/Brentford game on Monday – wrong, so perhaps I should lay off the crystal ball gazing for a bit 🙂

The focus shifts to the bottom of the table this week, although there’s only one game between the bottom six tomorrow so Millwall v Hull automatically becomes Game of the Week.

There’ll be brief details of the FA Cup draw at the end of the post, but suffice to say this will be the first of two meetings in a less than a month between these two at the Den.

Although the Lions have gone five games without a win, their record at home isn’t that awful: the recent reverse at the Den against Birmingham City was their first defeat at home since the end of September and having already hosted six of the current top ten, Neil Harris’ team can look forward to a somewhat easier run of home games in 2019. That being said, Millwall are two points worse off at this stage than they were when they were relegated at the end of 2014/15 and having seen them live recently I have to say that it’s no surprise that they’re struggling.

Hull currently have a three game away unbeaten streak going and have discovered their shooting boots after a run of five games where they only scored once between the end of August and mid October. Fraizer Campbell has scored three of their seven goals in the last three games and he’ll need to keep that type of run going over the next few months: the Tigers still have to play at eight of the teams currently in the top ten including a visit to Leeds at the end of the month. On the flip side, they’ve won three of their four encounters with the sides that are currently below them and if their recent form continues the best possible scenario is a mid table finish.

Head to head: Hull have only won twice at Millwall in ten games since December 1984; the Tigers last win at the Den was almost six years ago. Last season’s encounter in South London finished 0-0 – Hull have only scored twice in their last five visits to Millwall.

Verdict: in games between the bottom six this season, the home team has only lost three times but none of those duels featured either Hull or Millwall. The Tigers have already won at Rotherham and Bolton this season and I’d not be too surprised if they earn at least a point tomorrow.

There are two other games to note that could have an impact at both ends of the table. Bolton travel to Norwich having not won any of their last ten games and having not won at Carrow Road for eighteen years; in the Saturday evening televised game, managerless Reading play Sheffield United – the Royals finally dismissed Paul Clement on Wednesday, a move that shouldn’t have come as a massive surprise to regular readers of this blog.

The other televised game takes place this evening: WBA v Aston Villa would have been Game of the Week if Villa had been in the top six. This is the first time the clubs have met outside the top tier since 1987; Villa haven’t won at the Hawthorns for just over a decade.

Finally this week, the draw for the third round of the FA Cup resulted in seven ties against Premier League opposition (only Bristol City and Derby were drawn at home), four all Championship games, six clubs play League One opposition, Sheffield United will host Barnet of the National League and both Bolton and Middlesbrough are currently waiting for next week’s replays to find out their opponents. Off the top of my head, Derby are capable of beating Southampton and Ipswich will be lucky to escape Accrington Stanley with a replay. More to follow in the first post of 2019.

I’ll be back next weekend!

GOTW: Millwall v Sheffield United

The big news last weekend was that Leeds lost at home for the first time since March.

Two Che Adams goals in the first half an hour gave Birmingham their first away win since April and their third victory at Elland Road in the last five years.

And yes, I have tried to look for official highlights from either team but none seem to exist.

That result – combined with Middlesbrough’s goalless draw with Swansea – means that there’s now only a three point gap between Leeds and seventh placed Brentford.

At the bottom it was a fairly straightforward win for Reading:

The victories for Birmingham and Reading change the landscape at the bottom a little bit: nobody is in danger of being cast adrift this weekend but I’m beginning to wonder if Alex Neil will last the entire season at Preston.

There are two teams left in the League Cup: Derby (who beat Manchester United on penalties) and Nottingham Forest (who beat Stoke). For any casual Premier League fans reading this, Derby are slightly better than they were last season: Donald Trump could be their manager and they’d still finish in the top six without getting promoted.

We reach the ten game milestone this weekend – it’s hard to believe we’re already a third of the way through the season even though there’s another eight months left. After this weeks games we’ll have a far clearer picture of what’s going to happen although the next 15 or so games between now and Boxing Day will make it even clearer. If you’re going to win promotion or avoid relegation now’s the time to make a move: which is why this weekend’s game of the week is an important one for both teams.

Millwall v Sheffield United

The Lions aren’t that bad at home and I’d expect them to avoid relegation, but there are a couple of things Neil Harris needs to tweak. Only Ipswich and Rotherham have scored fewer goals so far and although Millwall have only lost two of their last ten games at the New Den, they’ve blown leads in three of their four outings in South London this season. Swansea beat them at the start of the month despite playing with ten men for most of the game after Courtney Baker-Richardson’s straight red card for an awful tackle on James Meredith.

The Blades recovered from their recent defeat at Bristol City by picking up four points from the next two matches. I know I’ve picked their matches for two of the last three games of the week but I think they’re a good measure of the comparative strength of the top six as I think there’s a possibility that they’re overrated at the moment. 80% of their points have been earned against teams currently in the bottom half of the table and they’ve got a habit of conceding late goals.

Millwall have won seven of the last ten games between the clubs in South London – the last time the game ended in a draw was in a Third Division game at the Den in March 1980, so it’s about time that outcome happened again.

There are two other games to look out for tomorrow, both of which are bottom six/top six matches: Hull v Middlesbrough and Preston v WBA.

This weekend’s televised games are as follows:

This evening: 7:45pm: Bristol City v Aston Villa (Sky Sports Red Button), Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds (Sky Sports Football/Main Event); on Saturday at 5:30pm it’s Rotherham v Stoke (Sky Sports Football/ Main Event), which is a rare one as they’ve not met since August 2004 and Stoke haven’t won at Rotherham since April 1993.

Finally another reminder that there will be no post from me for the next couple of weeks, although if anything dramatic happens I’ll post a quick recap.

GOTW: Reading v Hull

Something a bit different this week, but first a quick recap.

Last weekend’s game of the week ended in 1-0 victory for Bristol City over Sheffield United, but the most significant action came at Carrow Road:

That was Boro’s first defeat of the season and their first setback on the road since April. The damage wasn’t as bad as it could have been though as Leeds drew at Millwall and then both of the leading pair won their midweek games – which means Leeds are now a point ahead of Middlesbrough and are the only unbeaten team left in the Championship.

This week’s game of the week is between two clubs that are struggling at the moment. Rather than preview the game of the week, I’m going to take a wider look at the current situation at the bottom of the table, specifically where I think a managerial change might be imminent. There are five clubs that are seriously under performing so far this season:

Hull City

It’s been well over half a decade since Nigel Adkins had any sort of success as a manager: he’s been in charge at Hull for almost twice as many games as his predecessor (the hapless Leonid Slutsky) but is only fractionally more successful than the Russian was (0.23 of a point per game). As it stands, Adkins and his toothless tigers are lucky there are three teams worse than they are: if they survive this season, they may not get the same chance in 2019/20. Regarding tomorrow’s game, they’ve only lost three of their last ten aways in the Championship but only kept clean sheets in two of those matches – and as you’ll read in a minute, that’s cause for optimism at the Mad House.

Ipswich Town

Second favourites for relegation. Paul Hurst was only appointed at the end of May and hasn’t even been the boss at Portman Road for ten games, yet there were some dire predictions being made about Town’s fortunes this season before a ball was kicked in anger that I laughed off before the season but seem to be coming true. This time last season Ipswich were in the playoff places and were eleven points better off, but one win in their last ten games is cause for concern; the only other team without a league win so far are Birmingham, but they’ve only lost twice and seem to have turned something of a corner under Garry Monk.

Millwall

This is a ‘wait and see’ situation that is complicated by the presence of a club legend. The Lions didn’t exactly start last season particularly well either, but they improved a lot from December onwards. Don’t be surprised if that happens again in 2018/19 but also be aware that Neil  Harris has been in the job for three and a half years and since the start of the century only Kenny Jackett has been in the job longer. If their away form improves, they should climb up the table; if it doesn’t then Harris may be under pressure.

Preston North End

This is a surprise. After eight games in 2017/18 the Lillywhites were in fourth place and although they didn’t quite make the playoffs they were never out of the top ten after the end of January. I’m tempted to say that they’re in this position due to a particularly tough opening set of away games, but losing at home to Reading indicates a deeper malaise than I think anyone may have suspected. Alex Neil is doing a slightly better job with Preston than he did at Norwich, but that ultimately that wasn’t good enough to save his job in East Anglia and he may be heading the same way if the current poor run continues.

Reading

The Royals have been in the bottom seven of the Championship since last Boxing Day and are among the favourites for relegation. In a similar situation to Ipswich in as far as Paul Clement inherited a mess from the Jaap Stam era, but Clement has had 18 games to sort the situation out and doesn’t seem to have had any impact whatsoever. He didn’t last a full season at either Derby or Swansea and could make this an unwanted hat-trick if Reading don’t turn the corner soon. They’ve lost five in a row at home and haven’t beaten Hull at home for 13 years, despite having four attempts to do so.

Other games to watch out for this weekend: Leeds v Birmingham, Sheffield United v Preston and WBA v Millwall – all of those will have an impact on either end of the table.

Televised games: Wigan v Bristol City (this evening, 7:45pm kick off, Sky Sports Football/Main Event) and QPR v Norwich (Saturday evening, 5:30pm kick off, Sky Sports Football/Main Event). The former – between two sides in the top ten – looks more attractive than the latter, which looks as if it was chosen because it’s not far from Sky Sports’ studios rather than because it’s a decent looking game.

A couple of bits of housekeeping for you: there will be no posts on Friday 5th October (nephew’s birthday), Friday 12th October (international break) and Friday 26th October (family holiday/birthday in France).

But I will be back next weekend 🙂