The playoffs are never as straightforward as that though. Over the past ten seasons, only four clubs have won the first leg: the good news for Blackpool is that only one team (Ipswich in 2004) lost the second leg and were eliminated from the tournament. The bad news for Blackpool: only one club that finished fifth and won the first leg actually went on to win promotion in the playoff final – that was Burnley in 2010.

Birmingham finished fourth and lost the first leg. I mentioned the curse of fourth place last year and although I wouldn’t wish it on anyone, it looks very much as if it’s about to claim another victim. It’s been a long season for the Blues and you’ve got to wonder about the impact of playing in the Europa League at the start of the season: tonight’s match could be a game too far.

However, I’m sure that Ian Holloway’s side also won’t want to be reminded that in four of their last five league games at St. Andrew’s they’ve lost by two or more goals, including a 3-0 defeat in the Midlands on New Year’s Eve. Blackpool were already two goals down when ex-Bluenose Barry Ferguson was sent off, to be swiftly followed by Holloway who was dismissed for protesting against the decision a little vehemently for referee Craig Pawson’s liking.

With so much at stake tonight’s game could turn into a torrid affair, but the main aspect on the field will be how the defences cope. Birmingham have only lost once at home this season and had the best home defensive record, keeping clean sheets against Blackpool, Reading and Southampton and only conceding once goal against Cardiff and West Ham but they simply cannot afford to let Blackpool score.  If Kevin Philips finds the back of the net, I can’t imagine that he’d want to celebrate against the club he left at the end of last season.

As a neutral, although I was impressed with the way West Ham dispatched Cardiff over two legs, it felt as if something has been missing from the playoffs so far: hopefully we could be in for something less one sided this evening and we may not know the outcome until it’s almost time to go to bed.

As usual, there’ll be an update after the game: the next scheduled post will be before the playoff final on May 19th, but as we’ve seen over the past couple of days ’silly season’ seems to have started earlier this year.

Update: Birmingham City 2, Blackpool 2: the Tangerines scored either side of half time and although the Blues fought back to level the game, it’s Blackpool who’ll be playing West Ham at Wembley. Let the cliches begin.

In another story that broke today, there are a lot of rumours flying around that Cardiff City will be rebranded during the summer. The main part of the exercise appears to be changing their kit colours from blue and white to red – which will apparently make them more popular in Malaysia, which is where the club owner Vincent Tan is from. Whether being more popular in Malaysia will turn them into a team that is a genuine promotion candidate rather than perennial playoff underachievers presumably hasn’t been discussed yet.

Back to the Championship playoffs now and although I’m tempting fate I’d be very surprised if West Ham blew their chance of promotion at home to Cardiff (Sky Sports 1, 4:30pm). The Bluebirds would have to win by three clear goals to stand a chance of reaching Wembley: they’ve only scored two in three meetings since the mid 1920s – and lost two of those matches! If the Hammers reach the final, they’ll be the first side from the capital to play in a second tier playoff final at Wembley since Charlton in 1998.

The first leg of the other semi finals finished with a slender victory at Bloomfield Road for Blackpool, thanks to an own goal from Birmingham defender Curtis Davies on the stroke of half time. Having already declared that West Ham are as good as through to the playoff final, I’m going to make another rash prediction and say that the second leg at St Andrews will provide the semi final drama that seems to happen every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes to extra time or even penalties.

There’s also the chance that we may learn the identity of another club that’ll being playing in the Championship next season as Blackburn Rovers have to beat Wigan tonight to have any chance of staying in the Premier League. There’ll be an update after that game finishes.

West Ham reached Wembley after beating Cardiff 3-0; Blackburn Rovers lost 1-0 at home to Wigan and will play in the Championship next season.

Charlton were promoted weeks ago and it looked like Sheffield United would be joining them only one season after the Blades had been relegated from the Championship. However, following a defeat at Milton Keynes Dons and a draw with Stevenage, it’s Sheffield Wednesday who are in the driving seat tomorrow. The Owls – who were relegated on the final day of the 2009/10 season – haven’t lost a league game since mid February and took full advantage of the misfortune suffered by their rivals by beating Carlisle and Brentford.

As luck would have it, both Sheffield clubs face teams that will be playing in League 2 in August. United have to make the long journey down the M5 to Exeter City, while Wednesday entertain Wycombe Wanderers at Hillsborough. I’d be surprised if they didn’t both win and with so much at stake I’d be very, very surprised if either of them lost.

Regardless of which club is promoted, the presence of Wolves, Charlton and either – or possibly even both – Sheffield clubs in the Championship next season is something to get excited about. Multiple Yorkshire and London derbies aside, average attendances for both Sheffield clubs and Charlton in League 1 this season were higher than half the averages in the Championship so there’s a distinct possibility that attendances will rise next season. If Wednesday are promoted, Milan Mandaric and Dave Jones will be back: if – as seems likely after last night – Cardiff are still in the Championship next season that should give an extra edge to those games.

It’s a shame that most of us have got to wait another three months for the next game isn’t it!

The games begin this evening when West Ham travel to Cardiff City for the second time in the last couple of months: goals from Kevin Nolan and George McCartney earned the Hammers all three points at the City of Cardiff Stadium at the beginning of March, which made up for the 1-0 defeat the Bluebirds inflicted at the Boleyn Ground in the first game of the season.

This looks like a tight match: West Ham have only lost twice in their last 10 visits to the Welsh capital but haven’t beaten Cardiff in consecutive league games since the late 1920s! The hosts haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders recently – indifferent form including five draws in their last six games – put paid to any chances of automatic promotion but Malky McKay has rebuilt the team and made them difficult to beat at home. This is not the same Cardiff side that has quite frankly failed to perform in the post season in recent years and they could cause a surprise.

West Ham were considered hot favourites to win the Championship this season but despite having been in the top two for most of the season it became apparent towards the end of the campaign that both Southampton and Reading had been consistently better than the Hammers: there seems to be some optimism about the playoffs based on the assumption that third place is the best place to finish, particularly as four of the last six winners finished just outside the automatic promotion places. Hammers fans with longer memories might remember that it took West Ham two seasons to achieve promotion from the second tier last time they played at this level: additionally, over the last ten seasons four clubs of the clubs that finished behind the top two crashed out of the semi finals and Sheffield United lost both finals they took part in.

Tomorrow night’s semi final between Blackpool and Birmingham is liable to be just as intriguing but for completely different reasons. Birmingham have had the misfortune to finish in fourth place: the last team to finish fourth in the second tier and achieve promotion was Charlton Athletic, way back in May 1998. The Blues also had the worst away record of any of the top six teams this season and although they earned a point in Lancashire at the end of November (thanks to a late equaliser from Nikola Zigic) they’ve failed to win at any of their closest rivals this season: they’ve only won once in their last ten visits to Bloomfield Road.

Blackpool are one of only two teams to have beaten both Reading and Southampton at home this season (the other was Cardiff) and have only lost once at home since New Year’s Day: Ian Holloway hasn’t abandoned the style of play that earned a lot of praise in the Premier League last season – only Reading scored more goals at home this season and despite being nearly 40 Kevin Phillips has been in vintage form this season – but the Tangerines have tightened up at the back and may be a better side this time round than they were in 2010.

I’m not going to make any predictions about tonight’s games as I’m expecting them to be close contests: losing in the first leg is unthinkable so not losing is almost the order of the day. It’ll be interesting to see what happens: I’ll be back later with an update and there’ll be a brand new post up tomorrow.

Update: two first half goals from Jack Collison gave West Ham a 2-0 win at the City Of Cardiff Stadium. The last three clubs that finished third and also won the first leg of the semi final were promoted – Watford, Derby and Hull between 2006 and 2008.

The Saints made fairly short work of Coventry City on Saturday lunchtime: after Billy Sharp and Jose Fonte had given them a two goal lead after 19 minutes at St. Mary’s, the situation looked beyond West Ham no matter how many goals they scored against Hull. Although Southampton were top of the table for the majority of the season, they had to settle for second place after losing at home to Reading in the middle of this month: the consolation for the runners up is that they return to the Premier League for the first time since the 2004/05 season.

Although Wilfried Zaha gave Crystal Palace the lead against Cardiff at Selhurst Park, goals from Peter Whittingham and Don Cowie earned Cardiff all three points against the Eagles and made the final gap between sixth and seventh place look larger than it was for most of the season. Middlesbrough lost at Watford due to a late goal from Troy Deeney and missed out on the playoffs: Boro fans may be disappointed now, but over the summer they should begin to appreciate that this season has seen a turning point for the club’s fortunes.

It seems a bit odd writing about the playoffs on the last day of April, but in some respects it’s actually good to get everything out of the way earlier than usual. This season’s tournament is very different to previous seasons: all of the clubs that were relegated from the Premier League last season are in with a chance of going straight back up but the last team that was promoted via the playoffs in the season following relegation was Leicester in 1996!

Although all four playoff contestants have taken part in the second tier playoffs in the last decade, Blackpool and Cardiff have the most recent experience, having played each other in the memorable final at the end of 2009/10. They’re supposed to be the outsiders this season which is a bit odd considering that clubs finishing in fifth and sixth place have produced two of the last three winners and half of the successful teams over the last 20 seasons. Having said that, Cardiff have qualified for the playoffs in three consecutive seasons and were losing finalists on one occasion.

This season it’s down to Birmingham to end The Curse Of Fourth Place, which dates back to the dramatic penalty shoot out between Charlton and Sunderland in May 1998: Charlton were the last team to be promoted from the Championship to the Premier League after having finished in fourth position. Since then, fourth place has produced six losing finalists in fourteen seasons including Cardiff (2010) and West Ham (2004) and Blues fans probably don’t need reminding that it took them three consecutive attempts at the playoffs at the turn of the century before they defeated Norwich in 2001.

West Ham are the favourites to go up by winning at Wembley, which seems to be based on the logic that third place has provided four of the last six playoff winners rather than any recent form. There hasn’t been a London club in the playoffs since Crystal Palace lost in the semi finals to Bristol City in 2008 and West Ham were the last side from the capital to win the tournament when they beat Preston in Cardiff seven years ago.

I’ll be back on Thursday with previews of both of this week’s semi finals, but there’ll also be a special post on Friday taking a look at the situation at the top of League 1: the last promotion place is between Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday and will be decided one way or another on Saturday afternoon. Whatever happens, the Championship will definitely be welcoming back one of the big guns in South Yorkshire next season.

We’ll start with the last playoff place. Cardiff are two points ahead of Middlesbrough with a superior goal difference so it would appear that the Bluebirds appear to have the advantage: Cardiff also seem to have an advantage over Middlesbrough in as far as their record at Crystal Palace is better than Boro’s recent results at Watford. Selhurst Park has been a relatively happy hunting ground for Cardiff City over the last few games: three wins and a draw in their last five league games at Palace is a reasonable haul.

Another one of the reasons that Middlesbrough are at a disadvantage going into what might be their final game of the season is that their record at the Riverside this season. If Boro had won even half of the games they’d drawn at home they’d be in fourth place: their away form has also been substandard recently – the 1-0 victory at Derby was their first away success since the beginning of March – and they haven’t won at Watford in the league for twenty years.

Turning our attention to the scenario for the remaining automatic promotion place, the advantage is with Southampton, who haven’t been out of the top two spots for the entire season. The Saints don’t necessarily even have to win their game at St Mary’s against Coventry (BBC1, 12:30pm) to go up as West Ham would have to beat Hull (Sky Sports 2, 12:30pm) by more than two goals.

However, it’s fair to say that the fixture computer has been kinder to Southampton than West Ham. Coventry have won just three of their 20 league games at either St Mary’s or The Dell since 1985 and although the Sky Blues will not want to leave the Championship without putting up a fight, their away record against the top six this season has been awful: a very late injury time goal from Oliver Norwood earned a point at Cardiff last month but Coventry have lost the other four games and failed to score in three of them.

Although West Ham have spent the entire season in the top three, three wins in ten games isn’t exactly promotion form and the drop off in their home form since Christmas looks as if it’s cost them automatic promotion: over the course of the season, they’ve only won three of their eight games against other sides in the top ten at the Boleyn Ground. Hull haven’t won at West Ham since 1990 but although the Tigers have only lost twice away from home against the sides directly above them (2-1 at Southampton and 1-0 at Middlesbrough) they’ve not scored in either of their league games in London this season. Given that Hull have also conceded the fewest away goals in the Championship this season, it could be a very frustrating lunchtime in East London.

I’ll be looking at the playoffs at the start of next week, but the dates are worth mentioning:

First Legs:

6^th v 3^rd: Thursday May 3^rd, kick off 7:45pm

5^th v 4^th: Friday May 4^th, kick off 7:45pm

Second Legs:

3^rd v 6^th: Monday May 7^th kick off 4:30pm

4^th v 5^th: Wednesday May 9^th kick off 7:45pm

Final

Saturday 19^th May, 3pm at Wembley Stadium – the Champions League final takes place in Munich later that day, so it might be an idea to book the television in advance!

We also know the identity of another club that’ll be playing in the Championship next season – Wolves return to the second tier after having lost 2-0 at Molineux to Manchester City on Sunday afternoon. If anyone’s counting that leaves two clubs from both the Premier League and League 1 to join in next season: don’t be too surprised if whoever accompanies Wolves from the Premier League is instantly installed as ante post favourite to win the Championship next season.

I’ll be back on Friday with the last post of the regular season.

Southampton are currently winning at Middlesbrough. More later.

However by the time ‘El Clasico’ kicks off in Barcelona some of those issues could be resolved due to the outcome of just one game but I’ll come to that in a minute. Looking back at Tuesday’s games it looks like Southampton have sown up the other automatic place while West Ham have avoided the Curse Of Fourth Place (they can’t finish lower than third) but should be mindful that only seven teams that finished in third place have been promoted via the playoffs in the last 20 seasons.

The biggest issue at the top of the Championship this weekend is a combination of policing and TV scheduling. The game between Cardiff and Leeds is a 12:30pm kick off, which means that Middlesbrough will know exactly what sort of result they need against Southampton (tomorrow Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm) in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, if the Saints win at the Riverside, it doesn’t matter how West Ham do at Leicester (Monday, Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) as automatic promotion will have been settled.

At the bottom, things couldn’t be any simpler. If Bristol City beat Barnsley, then both Coventry and Portsmouth will be down regardless of how they do. The game between the Robins and the Tykes is automatically the most important game this weekend.

The similarities between the teams are worth mentioning. Apart from beginning with ‘B’ and wearing red shirts and white shorts, both clubs lost their best strikers to West Ham in the last transfer window and although they’ve been consistently poor away from home over the last couple of seasons, in 2011/12 their home form has collapsed to the same level you’d expect from teams struggling against relegation. If Bristol City survive this season, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise if they’re joined by Barnsley amongst the favourites to go down a year from now.

Bristol City’s recent performances have turned what looked like a hopeless situation a few weeks ago into one where they control their own fate: the problem is that it’s unclear whether this is the start of a medium term improvement or the end of desperate yet possibly successful attempt to avoid relegation. Five of City’s last nine defeats at Ashton Gate have been by one goal and despite having scored the same amount of goals as Coventry this season they’ve only failed to score twice in the last ten home games.

On the other hand, Barnsley’s away from has been atrocious for some time. Since drawing with Millwall in August they’ve only won three times on the road and have lost eight of their last ten aways: the game at the New Den at the beginning of the season was also the last time they kept a clean sheet away from Oakwell. Although the Tykes are safe, you have to wonder if that’s going to work in their favour tomorrow or not. They aren’t under any pressure but facing a side desperate for Championship survival backed by a partisan crowd isn’t exactly a fun way to spend a Saturday afternoon – especially when you consider that Barnsley haven’t won at Bristol City since 1993.

Considering both clubs have had trouble scoring this season there could be a few goals tomorrow – there have been 36 goals in the last ten league meetings between these two at Ashton Gate with 14 of them coming in the last two.

I’ll be back tomorrow with an update, but it might not be until after the Middlesbrough/Southampton game.