GOTW: Millwall v Fulham

To no-one’s great surprise, Wolves were promoted to the Premier League last weekend:

Only Aston Villa, Cardiff and Fulham can still win automatic promotion.

After that any of the other clubs in the top nine could still go up, but although neither club are mathematically out of it, I don’t think either Brentford or Bristol City will make the playoffs.

As I’ve been writing for the past few weeks, I think Burton and Sunderland have had it, but the battle to avoid 22nd place is still very tight. Right now I think Barnsley have too much to do.

Millwall v Fulham (7:45 pm, Sky Sports Football, Main Event)

A televised game of the week this late in the season is basically a can’t miss for those of you who are able to watch it. The clubs involved have had remarkably similar runs since Christmas and are top of the current six game form table. Additionally, there always seems to be one late season match that turns out to be a dress rehearsal for the playoffs and this could be the one.

The Lions have a 17 game unbeaten streak going into this one: they’ve not lost at home since the start of November (to Burton!) and haven’t conceded more than one goal at the New Den since Boxing Day.

Lee Gregory has pitched in with 5 of 18 in that period but the defence hasn’t been breached in three and a half hours of play at the New Den. That record might not last much longer: after Fulham, the Lions host Villa in the last home game of the season in what might turn out to be a showdown for home advantage in the playoffs.

Fulham are just as impressive: 21 games without losing with their last away defeat coming way back in mid December at Sunderland. On the road they’ve been not been as impressive defensively as Millwall have been at home but four straight away wins is plenty of proof how good the Cottagers are at the moment.

Half of the last five league meetings between the pair at Millwall have ended in draws, but Millwall haven’t beaten Fulham at home since they won by the odd goal in seven in an old Division Three game at The Den in April 1982.

Verdict: so far this Millwall haven’t lost any of the three home games they’ve played against teams that are above them, but their only victory was against Middlesbrough in December and it’s fair to say that Boro are a different proposition altogether now Tony Pulis has taken over. Fulham have lost at both Aston Villa and Wolves this season but have won at both Cardiff and Middlesbrough since the turn of the year and for that reason – in addition to their record against Millwall – I can’t see the Cottagers losing.

The other factor here is that if Millwall lose narrowly, only Derby can overtake them.  The Rams face Middlesbrough tomorrow.

Sunderland v Burton

A classic ‘if, then, or else’ game if ever there was one: the loser will be playing Accrington Stanley in League One  but there’s a combination of results where both clubs could go down regardless of what happens at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland have record two home wins in their last 21; Burton’s mini revival around Christmas didn’t last and the Brewers have only won once away from home in their last eight attempts.

I’ll be back with an update on Sunday.

Here it is: Wolves are your 2017/18 Sky Bet Championship title winners.

Sunderland have been relegated. Wigan Athletic have been promoted.

Author: Mike Roberts

A football fan since the 1970s, I take my inspiration from the standard of writing that made Shoot! magazine streets ahead of anything else back in the day. I'm also a complete and utter stathead, which I blame on being exposed to American sports at the end of my teens.