Sky Bet Championship Play Off Final Preview 2019

Aston Villa v Derby County

(Sky Sports Football/Main Event 2:oopm, kick off 3:00pm)

Well that flew by didn’t it: the most boring ‘richest’ game in the world is here once more, although let’s not get too excited.

The recent history of the final has been dominated by low scoring games, half of which had to go to extra time to be settled. The last time we saw more than two goals scored and both finalists actually scoring was in 2012: five of the last six matches finished 1-0 and on average we had to wait about an hour for a goal

However, the fact that a 5th v 6th final is such a rarity may mean that it’s a tendency breaker – but as you’re about to find out, that may not be a good thing for one of the teams involved.

And let’s not forget that one of these teams will become the first club since Crystal Palace in 2013 to be promoted to the Premier League having won fewer than 80 points.

Aston Villa

Beaten finalists 2018. Last ten regular season away games: 5-3-2 13-9 – almost exactly the same as last season.

Their current streak of seven games without an away defeat is Villa’s best form on the road this season, but all of those games were against sides with an average finishing position of 14th, including two wins against  teams that were relegated and ‘that’ equaliser at Leeds last month that was possibly a parting gift from Marcelo Bielsa. Then there’s this interesting stat: they had the second worst home defence last season (only Rotherham conceded more) but the fourth best away defence in the Championship – and that could be crucial, considering Derby finished with an away goal difference of -5.

Villa scored the sixth most away goals last season but that was still 18 fewer than they did at Villa Park. They also failed to beat any of the teams that finished above them on the road but won 3-0 at Derby in November:

Overall: don’t be fooled by the ‘big name’ nonsense – Villa weren’t actually as good as they were in 2017/18, but that was one of the reasons Steve Bruce was replaced in October and Dean Smith seems to have got the best out of the team. However, let’s not forget that they finished thirteen points behind runners up Sheffield United, which is more than twice the difference from 2017/18, when they finished six points behind Cardiff – who were relegated from the Premier League in April. Villa might be a big fish in a small pond in the Championship, but if they go up that situation will be reversed.

Derby County

Winners: 2007; Finalists: 1994, 2014; Semi Finalists: 1992, 2005, 2016, 2018.

Last ten away regular season games: 1-5-4, 9-16

Take a look at that record: over the last 25 years, The Rams have reached the playoffs seven times and have only been promoted once – and then were historically awful.

With the benefit of hindsight, Derby’s win at Leeds in the playoff semi final might actually just be an indication of how dramatic Leeds’ end of season implosion actually was rather than showcasing Derby’s promotion credentials. Before they won at Bristol City (with the help of card happy referee Darren Bond) they’d gone eight games without a win and hadn’t won an away game in 2018; those last ten games mentioned above were all against similar teams to those that Villa have done well against recently.

Derby did win their regular season games at WBA and Norwich but remarkably they also only picked up one point from nine available at those teams that will be playing in League One next season. The Rams also conceded in all but three of their away games last season and had the tenth best away defence in the Championship; they’ll have their hands full with Tammy Abraham but it’s also fair to say that they’ve been over reliant on Liverpool loanee Harry Wilson for goals.

Yet it’s not inconceivable that Derby will win promotion: they earned four more points that Blackpool did in 2009/10 and the same amount as Sheffield Wednesday earned when they reached the finals in 2015/16 but it was Blackpool who went up. In terms of Derby’s play-off history, this season’s team won three more points than the side that lost to Leicester in the 1994 final, but nine points fewer than the iteration that lost so dramatically in the 2014 final.

Head to head: Villa have won six of the last ten meetings and only lost twice – both of those defeats were at Derby.

Previous finals – last ten only:

Today’s game is only second time that a sixth placed team has actually reached the final over the last decade. The last sixth placed finisher to win the final was Blackpool in 2010.

It’s the first 5th v 6th final since West Ham v Preston in 2005 – West Ham won 1-0.

Higher placed teams have won exactly half of last ten finals.

The last six finals have all featured under three goals, the last time both teams scored was all the way back in 2012 (West Ham 2-1 Blackpool)

Verdict: history is against Derby here. They finished 3rd when they lost to QPR in the 2014 final and that team was a lot better than this season’s version but as you can see here, this year’s team seems to have more in common with the QPR side that beat them five years ago – which might be very significant.

On the other hand, history is also against Villa. The last team to return to a playoff final after losing it at the end of the previous season were West Ham in 2005, even though Crystal Palace (1997) and Leicester (1994) had both managed that feat before then. Villa fans can take some comfort that in both of the previous all-Midlands finals the higher placed finisher won both.

Now bearing in mind that I have a record of getting these wrong, I’m going to back Villa to win promotion – especially if they score first, as I’d also expect them to get another within ten minutes as Derby have to adapt tactically. It’s also worth remembering that Derby failed to score in both games against Villa this season and they were particularly vulnerable to Conor Hourihane.

Update: Derby and Charlton will be playing in the Championship next season.

 

2018 Playoff Final: The Aftermath

ICYMI…

Congratulations to Fulham – I told you they’d win promotion a year ago 🙂

However, things have taken a turn for the worse for Villa. Yesterday CEO Keith Wyness was suspended from his position following suggestions that a winding up order had been issued by HMRC over an unpaid multi-million pound tax bill. This morning there have been reports that Dr Tony Xia might have problems selling the club: we’ll monitor the situation as it develops.

Next scheduled post is June 21st, when the fixtures are released. The pre-season previews will be appearing in the first week of July, but I’m not entirely sure what format they’ll be in this time round.

2018 Playoff Final Preview

Saturday’s game is the eighth playoff final I’ve covered for this blog.

Before we go any further, I have to warn any Fulham fans that I don’t have a great record of accurately predicting the outcome of this game.

Aston Villa v Fulham

(Saturday 5pm kickoff, Sky Sports Football/Main Event will begin broadcasting at 4pm)

Statistically I always treat this as an away game for both teams and there’s a big difference between them in this respect.

Aston Villa

Last ten aways: 5-1-4, 14-9. Five clean sheets, failed to score in four games.

Don’t read too much into those numbers. Only two of those five wins were recorded against teams that finished in the top ten and Villa’s away record against the other teams in the top six was worse than that. Although their win at Middlesbrough in the first leg of the semi final duplicated the result at the Riverside at the end of December, it’s worth remembering that they only picked up 13 away points from 33 available against the other clubs in the top half of the Championship and Steve Bruce’s side failed to beat Brentford, Derby and Millwall either at home or away. Indeed, Preston had a better overall away record than Villa.

Villa have been pretty settled this season – four players have appeared in 40 or more games – and their main sources of goals are Albert Adomah and Conor Hourihane, who have scored 25 times between them this season. A note of caution here: Adomah hasn’t scored away from Villa Park in the league since mid-November and hasn’t scored at all since the start of February. He’s currently 3/1 in the ‘anytime goalscorer’ market.

Fulham

Last ten aways: 6-2-2, 16-9. Three clean sheets, failed to score in one game.

This season Fulham’s away record against the other teams in the top six was far better than Villa’s. The Cottagers earned nine more away points against the teams in the top half of the table than their opponents did (only Wolves had a better record on the road this season), but interestingly one of the reasons Fulham are playing in the final rather than watching it is that they failed to beat either Brentford or Bristol City this season. It’s also interesting to note that Fulham are going into the final having not won on the road since beating Millwall in April: they haven’t lost three away games in the Championship since the end of 2014.

As you might expect, Fulham have also been settled this season: six of their squad have made 40 or more appearances this season including the phenomenal teenage ‘defender’ Ryan Sessegnon, who has an extremely bright future ahead of him regardless of whether he stays at Craven Cottage or not. The arrival of Serbian international striker Aleksandar Mitrovic from Newcastle at the start of February was an inspired managerial move by fellow Serb Slavisa Jokanovic: unlike Albert Adomah, Sessegnon and Mitrovic have both scored away goals recently and are first and second favourites in the ‘anytime goalscorer’ market.

Head to head

This is where it starts looking ominous for Villa. They’ve only won three of their last ten games against Fulham and only two of the last six.

Random stats

I’ll be returning to this theme in a moment, but the last five finals have produced a grand total of just four goals in 90 minutes with two going to extra time. The last time both teams scored in the final was six years ago when West Ham beat Blackpool.

This is the first final between teams that have finished 3rd and 4th in the final table since 2015, when Norwich beat Middlesbrough. Generally speaking, the higher placed team have won half of the last ten finals.

Six of the last ten playoff winners have won at least 80 points, including five of the last six. In four of the last six finals, both teams have won at least 80 points. That’s significant – as is the fact that no team over the last decade has reached the final having won more points than Fulham did this season.

Verdict

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I picked Fulham for promotion before 2017/18 began so I can’t go against them now. One thing that may go in their favour is that the weight of expectation on Aston Villa – who have never appeared in a playoff final – may be too much: Steve Bruce played down reports of a ‘feisty’ training session earlier this week – which is odd, considering how Villa ‘won’ the Fair Play title in the Championship this season.

However, I do think there will be a few goals in this game. Nobody scored more away goals than Fulham this season – nine more than Villa – but eight teams (including Villa themselves) conceded fewer away from home than Fulham did.

In their away games this season, Villa have vulnerable in the fifteen minutes after half time: just over a third of the goals they’ve conceded on their travels have been scored during that period. However, almost a quarter of the goals they’ve scored have come between the 61st and 75th minute.

It’s the final 15 minutes that could be explosive. Fulham have scored 35% of their away goals in that period. However the Cottagers are defensively vulnerable at the end of each half whilst Villa often go on a defensive footing during that period: indicates that it might come down to Fulham looking for a late winner and seeing how the Villa defence holds up.

Owing to yet another family occasion, it’s unlikely there’ll be an update immediately after the game but I’m hoping to have something in place as soon as possible.

Fulham are up after a 1-0 win on Saturday – report to follow ASAP.

Villa’s Impressive Run Sees Them Continue Automatic Promotion Push

Villa Park

Aston Villa set out a two-year plan to return to the Premier League when they were relegated in 2016, and after a very good recent run, they look to have every chance of achieving that.

Villa have been in great form recently, winning their last five games to cement their playoff spot and push them closer to automatic promotion.

With 53 points, Villa currently sit in third position in the Championship, and they have Derby in their sights, who are above them by just one point. Derby hold the second key automatic promotion spot, and after a good run recently that will be what The Villans have their sights on. Wolves are currently at the top of the table, and they have built up a substantial lead over the chasing pack. They are 12 points ahead of Villa right now, but the more optimistic fans down at Villa Park may think they have a chance to chase them down, based on the play we have seen from them since Christmas.

The latest Championship betting has Villa at evens to be promoted and with their fantastic run looking like it could continue for a few more weeks yet, those odds could plummet should Villa keep things up. Over the coming weeks, Villa have a nice schedule where they can make further inroads into Wolves’ lead.

During February, three of the five games Aston Villa play come against teams that are currently in the bottom half. Two of those three games are up next, against Burton and a big local derby against Birmingham. Those two games represent great opportunities, and anything less than six points from those two games would probably be seen as a failure.

‘Aston Villa – The Holte End’ by Philip Halling (CC BY-SA 2.0)

After those two games, Villa travel to Fulham for their toughest game of the month. Here they face an in-form team, who, just like themselves, hold a playoff spot right now. The month is rounded off with games against Preston and Sheffield Wednesday and by the time we get there, Aston Villa could find themselves in a very good position in the Championship.

Promotion was always the aim for Aston Villa at the start of the season, although with the Championship being so tough, it was always going to be a struggle. However, so far Villa have set off well, and their recent run of form has not only put them in with a chance of promotion, but it has put them in with a chance of automatic promotion. From here until the end of the season, this will be the aim for Villa, and something they certainly look capable of doing.

With 17 games to go this season, Aston Villa are making a push for promotion back to the Premier League. Their recent form has taken them to a great position, and their upcoming schedule could help them climb further up the table. This is an exciting time to be a Villa fan, with a return to the Premier League a genuine possibility this season.

Annual Premier League Survival Battle Has Taken Its Toll On Sunderland

“Rotherham v Sunderland” (CC BY 2.0) by Chris

Just a few months after being relegated from the Premier League, Sunderland find themselves faced with the realistic prospect of dropping divisions for a second consecutive season. The clubs are currently sat second-bottom of the Championship table, having won just one of their 11 games.

During their time in the top flight, the Black Cats were regular candidates for relegation from the top tier and from the outset were just 4/1 to be relegated in last season’s Premier League betting relegation odds. Pressure at the bottom isn’t strange to them, then, but life is looking anything but rosy at current and dropping down another tier could, of course, cause them serious financial harm. Economically, the northeast club were one of the worst performing clubs during their time in the top flight with only two of the league’s richest club’s (Manchester City and Chelsea) making less profit since 2008.

As a result, the club are ill-prepared for the financial commitments required to haul themselves back to the top flight at the first attempt. For fans of the club who were perhaps hoping that relegation would offer a chance to regroup and come back stronger, their illusions have already been shattered. And new boss Simon Grayson has done little so far to suggest that the club can at least consolidate their position in the second tier with any ease.

The club’s epic struggle to survive in the top flight has taken its toll on a club whose owner has seemingly lost interest and whose better players have moved on to pastures new. Last year’s decision to hand responsibility for survival to David Moyes proved to be a misguided one as the club sunk to a new level of despair and negativity.

“Villa Park” (CC BY-ND 2.0) by jwillier2

With no funds to compete with the Championship’s new breed of big spenders, the future does not look good at the Stadium of Light. Even former Premier League regulars Aston Villa could only manage a 13th-place finish in the Championship last term, despite spending £72m during the two transfer windows. This year, the Midland side are improving slowly but they have plenty of experience in their side and a boss who knows what it takes to get out of this league. If teams like Villa have found it tough going, Sunderland may be left wondering just what hope there is left for them.

The recent international break may have come at just the right time for Grayson and his men, who would have been desperate to get back on the training ground after their recent draw against Preston North End. If they are going to break their nine-game winless streak and haul themselves out of the drop zone then they will need to make the most of the talent they have available. With three of their next four matches at home and on-loan striker Lewis Grabban and highly-rated youngster Josh Maja set to return, October could be a crucial month for the Mackems.

If there is no sign of improvement during this period, Grayson’s future will surely be debated. Although it is hard to imagine who else would want to take on what looks increasingly like a thankless task.