Sky Bet Championship Preview 2019-20

The hard facts are as follows:

If you want to win the Championship you need to earn at least 90 points and to go up without a detour via Wembley you’ll need at least 89 in the bag.

Those amounts have changed a bit over the last couple of seasons, but something else has to0 – even though at the moment it may only be possible to draw provisional conclusions.

Consider this – odds quoted below are for promotion, regardless of how it’s achieved:

Of the twelve teams that won Automatic Promotion over the last six seasons only two had been relegated from the Premier League at the end of the previous season – indicating that despite receiving parachute payments not only were those clubs not good enough to stay in the top tier but that they also weren’t good enough to finish in the top two at the end of the following season. If you look at the same stats over the last decade, only four of the new arrivals from the Premier League were promoted.

However, for me the main change is where the teams that eventually won automatic promotion had finished at the end of the previous season in the Championship.

Seven of those 12 – including two of the last six winners – had finished between tenth and fifteenth at the end of the previous season. I was going to to consider the teams that finished in those positions last season, until Hull and Sheffield Wednesday changed managers but at time of writing – a day before the season starts – Wednesday still haven’t replaced Steve Bruce and although Grant McCann is a good choice for Hull, I can’t see the Tigers making waves in 2019/20.

That being said, Preston (14th – 10/1), Brentford (11th – 9/2) and Swansea (10th, 10/1) are worth considering. Brentford in particular had a strong finish to last season, Preston recovered well after a poor start and Swansea now have a full season in the Championship under their belts.

The obvious contenders are Leeds (7/4F) and WBA (4/1), but there’s as much chance of both of them having playoff hangovers as there is of them finishing in the top two.

Leeds were the second lowest scoring side in the top six last season, whilst only ten teams conceded fewer goals than the Baggies; three of them were relegated. Slaven Bilic might be a step in the right direction, but his recent body of work is unconvincing and although he’s managed West Ham in the Premier League, he has no experience in the Championship. Leeds’ fans should also be aware of the fact that only two of the favourites to win automatic promotion over the last decade actually achieved a top two place.

Moving on to the playoffs, a couple of seasons ago I would have said that 70 points was enough for a top six finished, but that’s also changed: now the magic number is 72.

The post season is where the teams relegated from the Prem tend to have their best chance of an immediate return but it’s been three seasons that a club that had been relegated won at Wembley: the last two winners were teams that had reached the semi finals at the end of the previous season (so Leeds and WBA again!)

I’d still expect teams that finished in the top half to be competing for playoff spots but probably only Cardiff (7/2) from the teams that weren’t good enough to stay in the Premier League to challenge for the post season and that’s almost entirely down to Neil Warnock’s knowledge of how to win promotion.

Again, when I started writing this preview I’d included Birmingham (18/1) and Nottingham Forest (13/2) in the ‘possibles’ list but I’m going to discount them as I’ve got no idea what’s going on with either of them. Forest are overrated at the start of every season and you’ll be reading about the Blues in a moment.

The one team that should at least be making a serious attempt at a top six finish is Bristol City (15/2). The Robins have come close to the playoffs over the last couple of seasons and a combination of managerial stability and impressive recruitment over the summer might push them into promotion contention – although like so many other clubs, they need a proven striker.

I can’t see either Derby (13/2) or Middlesbrough (11/2) doing much this season. Frank Lampard’s move to Chelsea belies the fact that he did next to nothing with the Rams and Jonathan Woodgate is going to need at least one season to change the legacy of Tony Pulis’ defence first style at the Riverside.

Moving swiftly downwards…the odds quoted below are for relegation.

As a general rule over the last half dozen seasons, anything less than a 1.1 points per game and you’re in trouble as is any team finishing below sixteenth place at the end of the previous season.

Using that criteria, Reading (3/1) and Millwall (4/1) are the obvious contenders for the drop this season. As for other possible strugglers, in four of the last six seasons at least one of the promoted teams have struggled and I think this is where Luton (9/2) could be candidates. The last team to win successive promotions from League 2 was Rotherham a few seasons ago and the Millers never finished higher than 21st before being relegated at the end of 2016/17.

Both Charlton (9/4F) and Barnsley (5/2, 2F) have relatively recent experience at this level but that’s doesn’t mean either can be complacent. At one point over the summer it looked as if Lee Bowyer wouldn’t be with the Addicks for much longer whilst The Tykes have something of a reputation as a yo-yo club and haven’t finished in the top half of the second tier since it was renamed the Championship.

If you’re looking for outsiders, even though I’m a fan of Mark Warburton I think QPR (7/2) might continue to struggle and after a couple of seasons where Birmingham (9/2) had apparently turned the corner, I’m expecting the Blues to regress back to the team that struggled especially as the appointment of Pep Clotet is baffling, considering he did nothing at all at Oxford and didn’t last a full season at Malaga either.

It’s also highly unlikely that any of the new arrivals from the PL will be relegated to League One: Sunderland remain the only team since 2013/14 to have completed that particularly unenviable double.

TV Games: one a day from Friday to Monday – all Sky Sports football, kick off times in brackets.

This evening: Luton v Middlesbrough (7:45pm), Saturday: Forest v WBA (5:30pm), Sunday: Bristol City v Leeds (4:30pm), Monday: Huddersfield v Derby (7:45pm)

I’ll back next Thursday with a brief preview, but from now on it’s uninterrupted coverage until the first international weekend of the campaign…in a month.

Opening Weekend 2019/20

The fixtures for the new season were released this morning, here are the opening weekend’s games:

Friday August 2nd

Luton v Middlesbrough (7:45 – Sky Sports Football)

Saturday August 3rd

Barnsley v Fulham, Blackburn v Charlton, Brentford v Birmingham, Millwall v Preston, Reading v Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke v QPR, Swansea v Hull, Wigan v Cardiff, Nottingham Forest v WBA (5:30 – Sky Sports Football)

Sunday August 4th

Bristol City v Leeds (4:30 – Sky Sports Football)

Monday August 5th 

Huddersfield v Derby (7:45 – Sky Sports Football)

We already have a number of new managers: Birmingham and Hull have yet to name replacements for Garry Monk and Nigel Adkins respectively, but Luton, QPR, WBA. Middlesbrough and Swansea all have new managers.

The League Cup fixtures are out later on today but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Right, guess who’s off to start putting a preview together…

Sky Bet Championship Play Off Final Preview 2019

Aston Villa v Derby County

(Sky Sports Football/Main Event 2:oopm, kick off 3:00pm)

Well that flew by didn’t it: the most boring ‘richest’ game in the world is here once more, although let’s not get too excited.

The recent history of the final has been dominated by low scoring games, half of which had to go to extra time to be settled. The last time we saw more than two goals scored and both finalists actually scoring was in 2012: five of the last six matches finished 1-0 and on average we had to wait about an hour for a goal

However, the fact that a 5th v 6th final is such a rarity may mean that it’s a tendency breaker – but as you’re about to find out, that may not be a good thing for one of the teams involved.

And let’s not forget that one of these teams will become the first club since Crystal Palace in 2013 to be promoted to the Premier League having won fewer than 80 points.

Aston Villa

Beaten finalists 2018. Last ten regular season away games: 5-3-2 13-9 – almost exactly the same as last season.

Their current streak of seven games without an away defeat is Villa’s best form on the road this season, but all of those games were against sides with an average finishing position of 14th, including two wins against  teams that were relegated and ‘that’ equaliser at Leeds last month that was possibly a parting gift from Marcelo Bielsa. Then there’s this interesting stat: they had the second worst home defence last season (only Rotherham conceded more) but the fourth best away defence in the Championship – and that could be crucial, considering Derby finished with an away goal difference of -5.

Villa scored the sixth most away goals last season but that was still 18 fewer than they did at Villa Park. They also failed to beat any of the teams that finished above them on the road but won 3-0 at Derby in November:

Overall: don’t be fooled by the ‘big name’ nonsense – Villa weren’t actually as good as they were in 2017/18, but that was one of the reasons Steve Bruce was replaced in October and Dean Smith seems to have got the best out of the team. However, let’s not forget that they finished thirteen points behind runners up Sheffield United, which is more than twice the difference from 2017/18, when they finished six points behind Cardiff – who were relegated from the Premier League in April. Villa might be a big fish in a small pond in the Championship, but if they go up that situation will be reversed.

Derby County

Winners: 2007; Finalists: 1994, 2014; Semi Finalists: 1992, 2005, 2016, 2018.

Last ten away regular season games: 1-5-4, 9-16

Take a look at that record: over the last 25 years, The Rams have reached the playoffs seven times and have only been promoted once – and then were historically awful.

With the benefit of hindsight, Derby’s win at Leeds in the playoff semi final might actually just be an indication of how dramatic Leeds’ end of season implosion actually was rather than showcasing Derby’s promotion credentials. Before they won at Bristol City (with the help of card happy referee Darren Bond) they’d gone eight games without a win and hadn’t won an away game in 2018; those last ten games mentioned above were all against similar teams to those that Villa have done well against recently.

Derby did win their regular season games at WBA and Norwich but remarkably they also only picked up one point from nine available at those teams that will be playing in League One next season. The Rams also conceded in all but three of their away games last season and had the tenth best away defence in the Championship; they’ll have their hands full with Tammy Abraham but it’s also fair to say that they’ve been over reliant on Liverpool loanee Harry Wilson for goals.

Yet it’s not inconceivable that Derby will win promotion: they earned four more points that Blackpool did in 2009/10 and the same amount as Sheffield Wednesday earned when they reached the finals in 2015/16 but it was Blackpool who went up. In terms of Derby’s play-off history, this season’s team won three more points than the side that lost to Leicester in the 1994 final, but nine points fewer than the iteration that lost so dramatically in the 2014 final.

Head to head: Villa have won six of the last ten meetings and only lost twice – both of those defeats were at Derby.

Previous finals – last ten only:

Today’s game is only second time that a sixth placed team has actually reached the final over the last decade. The last sixth placed finisher to win the final was Blackpool in 2010.

It’s the first 5th v 6th final since West Ham v Preston in 2005 – West Ham won 1-0.

Higher placed teams have won exactly half of last ten finals.

The last six finals have all featured under three goals, the last time both teams scored was all the way back in 2012 (West Ham 2-1 Blackpool)

Verdict: history is against Derby here. They finished 3rd when they lost to QPR in the 2014 final and that team was a lot better than this season’s version but as you can see here, this year’s team seems to have more in common with the QPR side that beat them five years ago – which might be very significant.

On the other hand, history is also against Villa. The last team to return to a playoff final after losing it at the end of the previous season were West Ham in 2005, even though Crystal Palace (1997) and Leicester (1994) had both managed that feat before then. Villa fans can take some comfort that in both of the previous all-Midlands finals the higher placed finisher won both.

Now bearing in mind that I have a record of getting these wrong, I’m going to back Villa to win promotion – especially if they score first, as I’d also expect them to get another within ten minutes as Derby have to adapt tactically. It’s also worth remembering that Derby failed to score in both games against Villa this season and they were particularly vulnerable to Conor Hourihane.

Update: Derby and Charlton will be playing in the Championship next season.

 

GOTW: Bolton v Ipswich

Norwich beat Middlesbrough in last weekend’s game of the week:

That wasn’t the end of Middlesbrough’s misery either. On Tuesday evening they also lost at home to Bristol City, a result that leaves Tony Pulis’ side in eighth place.

Overall there wasn’t much change at the top last weekend: I think the top four have probably sewn the automatic promotion places up although there are still 21 points to play for and arguably any of the top seven sides could still reach El Dorado without negotiating the playoffs.

I’ll come to the bottom of the table when I get to the game of the week preview, but that situation hasn’t changed at all.

However, we know a little bit about how 2019/20 will look:

Steve McClaren was sacked by QPR earlier this week with former Watford and Derby midfielder John Eustace taking over as caretaker manager for their game against Norwich tomorrow lunchtime (Sky Sports Football/Main Event 12:30).

McClaren had been in charge at Loftus Road for almost a year but had recorded his lowest win percentage in club management since his stint at Newcastle a few years ago.

Surprisingly, we also know the identities of two of the clubs that have been relegated from the Premier League: Fulham and Huddersfield will be back after one and two seasons respectively in the Promised Land. This is the earliest that two clubs have been relegated from the top tier since Ipswich and Leicester at the end of the 1994/95 season.

Bolton v Ipswich

An important game at the bottom of the table but one that is unlikely to be the start of a miracle escape from relegation.

The tumult continues in Lancashire: the players took strike action in support of backroom staff on Monday, on Wednesday the club was given until May to pay off the remaining debt on the tax bill and although administration appears to have been avoided, this is hardly the sort of preparation the players need before such a big game.

On the field, the story for Bolton is dire. Two home wins since the start of October with just even goals in fourteen games over that period tell the story of how bad things are on the playing side.

Ipswich’s record on the road is just as bad, but there are signs that Paul Lambert has made them into a team that’s difficult to beat away from Portman Road. They’ve not lost an away game since mid-February but although they’ve not won on their travels since October, they’ve drawn their last three matches and were really unlucky not to win at Wigan at the end of February. That might stand the Tractor Boys in good stead next season, but has come too late to save them now.

Head to head: the last four encounters at Bolton have finished all square. The last time Wanderers beat Ipswich was in a Premier League game just over 17 years ago.

The other games worth tracking this weekend are matches where playoff contenders play teams that could find themselves relegated if the next few weeks don’t see an upturn in their fortunes. It surprised me to find out exactly how bad WBA‘s record at Millwall has been: admittedly the Baggies haven’t exactly been visitors to Bermondsey in recent years, but they’ve never won at the New Den and you’ve got to go back to April 1987 for their last win at the old Den.

Tomorrow will be Wigan’s fifth game at Ashton Gate since the start of the century but the Latics have only beaten Bristol City once, sixteen years ago. Three of those last five encounters have ended all square and with the hosts not having won at home since mid-February there’s a slight chance that might happen again….although Wigan haven’t won on the road since August and have lost five of their last six away matches.

All being well, I’ll be back next Friday. Enjoy the weekend.

GOTW: Leeds v Sheffield United

Well the last week or so was eventful.

Whether Darren Moore’s departure from WBA was a shock or not seemed to depend on how closely you follow the Championship.

If you don’t follow the competition closely, it was a surprise. If you do, it wasn’t – his dismissal clearly falls into the category of ‘You were supposed to win automatic promotion’, which clearly shows how little research the WBA ownership had done. There were some structural issues too: the Baggies’ defence is not quite good enough yet. However, what Moore has now is invaluable: managerial experience at this level. I’m pretty sure that we haven’t heard the last of him.

I’m not going to waste my time recapping what happened at St Andrews last Sunday other than to mention the fact that Sky Sports repeated the incident as often as they possibly could – I’m old enough to remember the likes of Jimmy Hill and Brian Moore stating very clearly that they wouldn’t be showing footage of pitch invasions as it was providing hooligans with the publicity they wanted.

Game of the week is a no-brainer: Leeds v Sheffield United (Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 12:30pm) is a Yorkshire derby between the clubs in second and third place who are only separated by two points. There have been four meetings in the league between the local rivals since the turn of the century – and Leeds have only won one of those matches, a single goal win in September 2010.

Other games to keep an eye on: Rotherham v Norwich and Wigan v  Bolton.

Championship involvement in the FA Cup may come to an end this weekend: the two sides left in the competition have home ties against Premier League teams: Swansea v Manchester City (BT Sport 2, 5:20pm) and Millwall v Brighton (BBC1, Sunday 2:00pm)

There’s an international break next weekend, so if it’s at all possible I’ll be back in two weeks.