GOTW: Leeds v Sheffield United

Well the last week or so was eventful.

Whether Darren Moore’s departure from WBA was a shock or not seemed to depend on how closely you follow the Championship.

If you don’t follow the competition closely, it was a surprise. If you do, it wasn’t – his dismissal clearly falls into the category of ‘You were supposed to win automatic promotion’, which clearly shows how little research the WBA ownership had done. There were some structural issues too: the Baggies’ defence is not quite good enough yet. However, what Moore has now is invaluable: managerial experience at this level. I’m pretty sure that we haven’t heard the last of him.

I’m not going to waste my time recapping what happened at St Andrews last Sunday other than to mention the fact that Sky Sports repeated the incident as often as they possibly could – I’m old enough to remember the likes of Jimmy Hill and Brian Moore stating very clearly that they wouldn’t be showing footage of pitch invasions as it was providing hooligans with the publicity they wanted.

Game of the week is a no-brainer: Leeds v Sheffield United (Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 12:30pm) is a Yorkshire derby between the clubs in second and third place who are only separated by two points. There have been four meetings in the league between the local rivals since the turn of the century – and Leeds have only won one of those matches, a single goal win in September 2010.

Other games to keep an eye on: Rotherham v Norwich and Wigan v  Bolton.

Championship involvement in the FA Cup may come to an end this weekend: the two sides left in the competition have home ties against Premier League teams: Swansea v Manchester City (BT Sport 2, 5:20pm) and Millwall v Brighton (BBC1, Sunday 2:00pm)

There’s an international break next weekend, so if it’s at all possible I’ll be back in two weeks.

GOTW: Leeds v WBA

To start this week’s post, an announcement.

Due to a major change in my professional life, for the next few weeks I’ll be posting on an ‘as and when’ basis due to being a lot busier than normal. I’m going to aim to post something at least once a fortnight, so please bear with me.

GOTW: Leeds v WBA (this evening, 7:45pm, Football/Main Event)

Only four points separate these two going into this evening;s game – Leeds have only lost twice at Elland Road since October but they’ve only won one game on the road this year and that’s the reason they’ve dropped out of the automatic promotion places. The Baggies have won four straight away games but haven’t won five in a row away from the Hawthorns at this level for ten years.

Baggies wins at Elland Road are few and far between: the last time they met in the league was 12 years ago and although West Brom won that encounter, they hadn’t won in Yorkshire before then since October 1978.

Other matches with implications at both ends of the table: Ipswich v Reading, Millwall v Norwich and Wigan v Middlesbrough

Neither Ipswich nor Bolton can escape the gravitational pull of League One this weekend but Reading have been thrown a lifeline by Rotherham‘s inability to win any of their last six games. Millwall and Wigan both have some breathing space but if they lose at home to their top six opponents they’ll be dragged right back into the relegation scrap.

The only other televised game this weekend is the Steel City Derby at Hillsborough on Monday (Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 7:45pm): it would take an improbable set of events for Sheffield United to leap into pole position, but it is possible – so I’d say if it looks likely, it’s probably a must watch.

I’ll be back soon, if anything dramatic happens I’ll post ASAP.

FA Cup Fifth Round Special

Considering that only three Championship teams reached the Fifth Round of the FA Cup last season, a 100% increase in that level combined with one guaranteed place in the Quarter Finals represents an improvement.

I’ve got a hunch that the winner of Swansea v Brentford might not be the last second tier club left in the Cup – and who knows what might happen after that, especially if the draw for the Quarter Finals in favourable.

Before we go any further, I’ll be covering Millwall’s game at Doncaster Rovers at Buzzin’ League One football and due to a combination of factors I’ll be limiting this post to the FA Cup only.

One of the interesting aspects of this weekend’s ties is how many of the second tier clubs left in the competition haven’t reached this stage for a while.

QPR v Watford (this evening, 7:45pm, BT Sport 2)

First meeting in the competition, which surprised me. Will be the ninth meeting between the clubs since 2000; Watford have only won twice (3-1 December 2010), first meeting for almost five years. First time QPR have got this far since 1997 largely because their home form in the competition is awful; they haven’t reached the quarter finals since 1995 and haven’t won in the Championship at Loftus Road since Boxing Day.

Brighton v Derby (Saturday 12:30pm, BT Sport 2)

Although this will be their fourth encounter in the cup, it’s the first since a Third Round game in January 1961 that Brighton won 3-1 at the old Goldstone Ground. The last league meeting was a couple of years ago and the last time the Rams won at Brighton was the 2014 playoff semi final: they also won the corresponding league game in the previous August. The Rams have been regulars at this stage in recent seasons but haven’t gone beyond it since 1999.

Bristol City v Wolves (Sunday 1pm, BT Sport 2)

Only other meeting in the FA cup was at Molyneux 46 years ago when Wolves won by a single goal and went on to reach the semi finals before losing to eventual runners -up Leeds. Wolves have won half of their last six visits to Ashton Gate, all three wins coming since 2010 including a dramatic victory in December 2016. City haven’t got this far for 18 years and haven’t reached the Sixth Round since 1974 – for those of you with long memories, that was the season the Robins beat Leeds United in a replay at Elland Road.

Swansea v Brentford (Sunday 3pm, no TV coverage)

It probably should not come as a huge shock to see that the tie that guarantees at least one Championship club a quarter final spot doesn’t get any TV coverage. Third meeting in the competition, although once again you’ve got to go back to the early seventies for the last one which Swansea won at Griffin Park after a draw at the Vetch Field. Swansea got this far last season before losing to Spurs in the next round, but Brentford haven’t reached this round since 2006 and it’s been 30 years since they got any further.

Back next weekend, if there any upsets I’ll update this post.

Are Leeds Going To Blow It?

Welcome to this week’s episode of ‘typical anti-Leeds drivel’, if you’re a Leeds fan of a certain disposition you might not want to continue reading.

Here’s what happened at Elland Road last weekend in the clash between the top two:

Leeds have now lost four of their last six games after a seven game winning streak that ended at the end of December. It’s unclear if this is a blip or not – after this weekend’s game they don’t face another top six club until next month – but there’s suddenly a defensive frailty about them. If any Leeds fans want to take a look at what happened to Marseille in the 2014/15 season, they might see something that should worry them.

As we go into this weekend’s games, only ten points separate the top seven, which could mean the last third of the season is more unpredictable than we might have imagined even a month ago. Currently no-one looks like a side that could win automatic promotion, but to put that into context the only team that has more or less no chance of mathematically reaching the playoffs is Ipswich.

Nonetheless, Middlesbrough v Leeds (tomorrow 1pm, no TV coverage) is our game of the week this week even though neither team is currently on fire. Boro were dumped out of the FA Cup earlier this week by Newport, which probably shouldn’t have been that much of a shock considering their record at the Riverside since mid-September – where Tony Pulis’ side has won just twice in ten games. That being said, their away form has sustained their league position and Boro haven’t lost at home to any of the teams currently above them in 2018/19.

Leeds’ recent come from behind win at Rotherham was their first away success since before Christmas but although they’ve got a reasonably straightforward looking run in, this game will be their last chance until the start of next month to win any away points due to QPR‘s continued involvement in the FA Cup.

Leeds have only won one of their last five visits to the Riverside – an early Alex Mowatt goal earned all three points in February 2014 – and the last time both of these teams scored in a game at Middlesbrough was just under eight and a half years ago. Given that Boro have the best defence in the division, I wonder how likely it is to happen again?

The only other game that will have an impact on the table is at Millmoor, where Wigan are the visitors. Reading would have to win at Sheffield Wednesday to overtake Rotherham, but considering Wigan haven’t won a game away from home since August (thirteen in a row), the Latics might be due a rare success. The Millers have only won twice at home since October but actually have a decent home record against the other strugglers.

TV games: Aston Villa v Sheffield United (this evening, 7:45pm), Stoke v WBA (Saturday 5:30pm) and Norwich v Ipswich (Sunday, noon) all look as if they were chosen well in advance. The Old Farm derby is usually televised but might well be one to avoid given the respective positions of the protagonists in the table: Norwich have beaten Ipswich twice by three clear goals in the last 25 years and I’d not be surprised if that happened again in what might be the last league derby between the teams for a while.

I’ll get back to the FA Cup next weekend, but with six teams left in the competition, I’m beginning to wonder if something rather rare might happen. With all due respect to Newport, imagine the possibilities if Manchester City were drawn against the winners of Chelsea/Manchester United in the quarter finals…

The Championship’s Biggest Movers in Early 2019

Blades 4-1 Tigers” (CC BY 2.0) by domfell

The Christmas period can often play a crucial part in shaping the course of the league heading into the New Year.

With games coming thick and fast, teams can easily drop out or force their way into contention for automatic promotion and the play-off places.

This year has been no exception with some of the top teams faltering while a couple of upstarts have forced themselves into the reckoning.

Leeds United lost two games in a row in January at the turn of the year, but as of 16th January, retained a four-point gap at the top thanks to poor results for their rivals. That includes Norwich City, who went on a four-game winless run, and West Bromwich Albion, who drew two and lost one following their Boxing Day win over Wigan Athletic.

Blades at the sharp end

This opened the door for Sheffield United who won four in a row over the festive period, leapfrogging into second place. Prior to that, they had only won three in 11 and looked out of contention for automatic promotion. Chris Wilder’s men are now third favourites for the title in the Championship betting markets and priced at Evens to get promoted.

Robins bobbing along nicely

Looking a little further down the table, Bristol City are another club on an upward trajectory. The Robins bounced back from four straight defeats to go unbeaten from the end of November through to the middle of January. Before that run, Lee Johnson’s men were languishing down in 15th place, but they now sit in seventh, just two points outside of the play-off places. Despite their uplift in form, they can still be backed as long as 20/1 to achieve promotion.

Tigers on the prowl

Three points and three places further back, Hull City are the league’s in-form team. With five straight wins from the middle of December topping off an 11-game unbeaten run, Nigel Adkins’ men have powered their way into playoff contention. On 23rd October, they were second bottom with just nine points from their opening 13 games and looked certain to become relegation candidates.

Now, just four points outside of the playoff zone, the Tigers are still not getting much attention from the bookies, who had them as long as 25/1 for promotion at the time of writing, but no team has a better record over the last 13 games. If they can bolster their squad in January while maintaining their current momentum, they could well be in the mix come May.

Case in point

On November 5 last year, Fulham were 17th place in the table having won just four of their 16 games. They went on to finish third in the table losing just three of the next 31 games and secured promotion via the playoffs.

Winning runs don’t win Championships or promotion alone and all three teams mentioned will need to maintain consistency over a longer period if they are to stay in contention for ascension to the Premier League.