Championship Teams Who Can Surprise in the 2020 FA Cup

Championship sides are often in an interesting position in the FA Cup.

They aren’t far down enough the English football ladder to prompt support for the magic of the FA Cup, but they aren’t fancied to take down the titans of the Premier League in most cases either.

But there are some Championship sides heading into next season who have a real shot at making some noise in the FA Cup, and upsetting the natural order of the tournament.

Wigan Athletic

Wigan Athletic had one of the most interesting FA Cup runs of all-time, when they managed to win the entire tournament despite getting relegated from Premier League competition in the same season. Perhaps more interesting was who Wigan had to beat to earn that trophy, as they managed to hold a potent Manchester City attack scoreless in a 1-0 FA Cup winning victory that shocked the football world.

City, of course, are on the verge of yet another FA Cup title as they are the favourites to win the tournament as they reached the final against Watford. Paddy Power has the Citizens at 1/5 odds to win the game in normal time to secure the domestic treble for the 2019-2020 season, a feat that has not been performed by a Premier League side to date. If anything, the continued rise of City has made what Wigan did in 2013 even more impressive.

As for this year’s team, there isn’t a lot of resemblance between the Wigan side that won the FA Cup and the side now. But the club and its supporters know full well how to navigate the tournament, something that gives them an advantage over most Championship sides who have yet to experience the same levels of success in the competition.

Middlesbrough

Manager Tony Pulis said that he considered the season for Middlesbrough to be a successful one regardless of whether or not the team ends up in the Premier League again. But the team could be in for more success next season, as they look like they would have a real shot to disrupt the traditional powers in the FA Cup thanks to one of the most stout defences in English football.

Boro allowed just 41 goals in 46 league matches in the Championship in the 2018-2019 season, tying them with Sheffield United for the best defensive mark in the league. Boro only knocked in 49 goals for the year, which could be cause for concern against higher-profile opponents, but their defence will likely keep them in games against even the biggest teams in the England club ladder, which could help them pull off some upsets en route to a magical cup run.

There are a lot of things that can change that can derail one of these teams or elevate another Championship team. The additional of newly promoted or relegated teams into the league can affect the balance of power, as can transfers and other forms of player movement. But as it stands right now, don’t be surprised if Wigan or Boro turn some heads from the Championship in the next FA Cup.

2018/19 Championship Playoff Preview

Here we are again!

Four teams that weren’t quite good enough to win automatic promotion competing for a position in the bottom half of the Premier League and there’s a good chance that at least one of them will back here next season.

Aston Villa and WBA have played in the Premier League within the last five years, but neither Derby nor Leeds have played in the top tier for over a decade.

The odd thing about this season’s playoffs is that although Leeds were one of the most improved teams this season, both Villa and Derby weren’t as good as they were in 2017/18. That’s also emphasised by looking at the head to head record between the four teams: Leeds only lost once in their six games against other teams in the playoffs, whereas the other three sides lost at least twice – Derby lost four of their six games against playoff teams and actually had a goal difference of -7. The other thing to note is how few draws their have been in these games: just the one, when Leeds drew with Villa a couple of weeks ago.

Villa and Leeds are the favourites, but it’s been a while since losing playoff finalists returned to the final and won it – the last occasion was when West Ham won in 2005 after losing to Crystal Palace in 2004.

Finally, does anyone remember the Curse of Fourth? It’s been joined by the Curse of Sixth: only three teams in the last decade that have finished in either fourth or sixth place have been promoted via the playoffs. Bad news for Derby and WBA in that case.

Therefore statistically speaking, it looks like Leeds should go up. It’s never that simple though.

Aston Villa v WBA (Sky Sports Football/Main Event 12:15pm)

A local derby in the playoffs so that’ll be fun for the neutrals. Until last weekend Villa had won five consecutive home games but the defeat against Norwich was the first time VIlla had lost at home since mid-February. This season they’ve been beaten at Villa Park three teams but have drawn twice in their next home outing. A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world for either team today, but would definitely give the Baggies an advantage next week.

The head to head record at Villa Park is interesting: WBA have won two of the last three matches there but those victories were the first since 2011. Villa have only won two of the last six.

Verdict: this is going to be a tight one.

Derby v Leeds (Sky Sports Football/Main Event 5:15pm)

Just three home defeats all season indicate that Derby are a force to be reckoned with, but two of those reverses were heavy defeats against Villa and Leeds and they only won three of their nine games at Pride Park against teams that finished in the top ten. The other side of the argument is that Leeds need to stop Derby scoring this afternoon, something that has only happened five times this season – and the Rams have only lost twice when they’ve failed to hit the net.

Leeds are on a four game streak without a win and haven’t won on the road since before Easter, but as I mentioned earlier, their away record against the top six – and indeed the top ten – is much better than Derby’s. The other problem Leeds have in this game is that they’ve got a poor record at Derby: although United won convincingly at Pride Park in August, before then they’d only won one of their last ten league games there.

Verdict: anything could happen here, but overall it’s going to be down to which manager prepares his team better. I don’t actually think Frank Lampard’s made much of a difference to Derby, but after what happened a couple of weeks ago against Aston Villa, my opinion of Marcelo Bielsa has gone up – even if my opinion of Pontus Jansson hasn’t.

I’ll update this post ASAP after today’s games and there’ll be a short post once we know who’s going to reach the final.

Aston Villa 2-1 WBA

Derby 0-1 Leeds

Update: Aston Villa will face Derby in the final. Villa won on penalties and Derby won at Elland Road in a very dramatic game.

 

Regular Season Round Up

Champions: Norwich City

Promoted: Sheffield United

Playoffs: Aston Villa v WBA, Derby v Leeds

Relegated: Rotherham, Bolton and Ipswich

New arrivals: Barnsley, Cardiff, Fulham, Huddersfield, Luton and one from Charlton, Doncaster, Portsmouth or Sunderland.

There will be a full playoff post coming at the end of the week.

GOTW: Leeds v Aston Villa

Apologies for the lack of posts recently, it’s entirely due to work commitments.

I couldn’t really go another week without an update though, so although this is a quick one it contains a lot of information!

WBA v Rotherham (3pm Saturday)

This is more about Rotherham than WBA. The Millers could still save themselves from an immediate return to League One with a win, but given that WBA are on a five game unbeaten streak at the Hawthorns and Rotherham have won only once on the road this season, then it looks unlikely – indeed, the Yorkshire need to at least match Millwall‘s result at home to Stoke to stand any chance of that and they won’t know the score from the New Den until about half way through the first half due to the early kickoff in South London.

Leeds v Aston Villa (noon Sunday, Sky Sports Main Event/Football)

Every season there seems to be a very late season encounter between clubs that either ends up being a playoff final or semi final and lo and behold here we are again.

Leeds have lost four of their last ten at home – including last week’s defeat against Wigan, in which the Latics played with ten men for all but 14 minutes of the game and came from behind to win – whilst Villa have won five straight on the road. That being said, it’s worth remembering that Leeds haven’t lost at home to Aston Villa since Christmas 2000 but three of the last five encounters at Elland Road have been drawn.

At the bottom of the league it’s down to avoiding the last relegation place, with Bolton and Ipswich having already been relegated. The EFL took the unprecedented decision to postpone Bolton’s game against Brentford this afternoon after the Bolton players went on strike over unpaid wages.

That’s it for this week, I’m going to try my best to cover the end of the season even if the posts are briefer than usual.

GOTW: Bolton v Ipswich

Norwich beat Middlesbrough in last weekend’s game of the week:

That wasn’t the end of Middlesbrough’s misery either. On Tuesday evening they also lost at home to Bristol City, a result that leaves Tony Pulis’ side in eighth place.

Overall there wasn’t much change at the top last weekend: I think the top four have probably sewn the automatic promotion places up although there are still 21 points to play for and arguably any of the top seven sides could still reach El Dorado without negotiating the playoffs.

I’ll come to the bottom of the table when I get to the game of the week preview, but that situation hasn’t changed at all.

However, we know a little bit about how 2019/20 will look:

Steve McClaren was sacked by QPR earlier this week with former Watford and Derby midfielder John Eustace taking over as caretaker manager for their game against Norwich tomorrow lunchtime (Sky Sports Football/Main Event 12:30).

McClaren had been in charge at Loftus Road for almost a year but had recorded his lowest win percentage in club management since his stint at Newcastle a few years ago.

Surprisingly, we also know the identities of two of the clubs that have been relegated from the Premier League: Fulham and Huddersfield will be back after one and two seasons respectively in the Promised Land. This is the earliest that two clubs have been relegated from the top tier since Ipswich and Leicester at the end of the 1994/95 season.

Bolton v Ipswich

An important game at the bottom of the table but one that is unlikely to be the start of a miracle escape from relegation.

The tumult continues in Lancashire: the players took strike action in support of backroom staff on Monday, on Wednesday the club was given until May to pay off the remaining debt on the tax bill and although administration appears to have been avoided, this is hardly the sort of preparation the players need before such a big game.

On the field, the story for Bolton is dire. Two home wins since the start of October with just even goals in fourteen games over that period tell the story of how bad things are on the playing side.

Ipswich’s record on the road is just as bad, but there are signs that Paul Lambert has made them into a team that’s difficult to beat away from Portman Road. They’ve not lost an away game since mid-February but although they’ve not won on their travels since October, they’ve drawn their last three matches and were really unlucky not to win at Wigan at the end of February. That might stand the Tractor Boys in good stead next season, but has come too late to save them now.

Head to head: the last four encounters at Bolton have finished all square. The last time Wanderers beat Ipswich was in a Premier League game just over 17 years ago.

The other games worth tracking this weekend are matches where playoff contenders play teams that could find themselves relegated if the next few weeks don’t see an upturn in their fortunes. It surprised me to find out exactly how bad WBA‘s record at Millwall has been: admittedly the Baggies haven’t exactly been visitors to Bermondsey in recent years, but they’ve never won at the New Den and you’ve got to go back to April 1987 for their last win at the old Den.

Tomorrow will be Wigan’s fifth game at Ashton Gate since the start of the century but the Latics have only beaten Bristol City once, sixteen years ago. Three of those last five encounters have ended all square and with the hosts not having won at home since mid-February there’s a slight chance that might happen again….although Wigan haven’t won on the road since August and have lost five of their last six away matches.

All being well, I’ll be back next Friday. Enjoy the weekend.