If Southampton win and West Ham lose at Ipswich, the Saints will go top. If Cardiff win, they’ll move into second place regardless of how West Ham do and the Bluebirds will also have a two point advantage over Southampton. If it’s a draw and the Hammers win, Big Sam and company will have a five point lead at the top at the end of January – the same situation as QPR were in at the end of January 2011.

So what can expect from tonight’s games? Well, unsurprisingly to regular readers Southampton v Cardiff  is yet another one of those games where one side seems to be at a tremendous disadvantage. Cardiff have been awful at Southampton over the years – the last time the Bluebirds won a league game at the Dell was in October 1962 and they’ve only picked up two points in the ten games on the South Coast since then.

Moving away from the long term outlook, a look at this season’s form indicates that one side may be a flash in the pan and the other is consistent if not spectacular. Cardiff have only lost two away games in the league this season and are currently on an eight game undefeated streak on the road as well as looking forward to the Carling Cup final in a few weeks time. Since losing 4-3 at Peterborough in mid October the Bluebirds have kept four clean sheets in seven games and only West Ham and Hull have conceded fewer away goals this season. To put that another way, Cardiff have conceded eight fewer goals away from home than this time last year: that’s the type of form that wins promotion. Remarkably, this is a totally different Cardiff side to last season’s – only Darcy Blake and Peter Whittingham from the team that started at Doncaster were in the starting eleven in the disastrous playoff semi final against Reading in May.

In contrast, Southampton’s fantastic start to the season at St Mary’s (ten consecutive wins) has hit the skids in recent weeks. They’ve not won at home since Boxing Day and failed to score in their last two games. Although he’s been suspended recently, top scorer Rickie Lambert hasn’t scored at home since his injury time equaliser against Blackpool on December 10th and Nigel Adkins decision to sign Billy Sharp from Doncaster shows how serious the goalscoring issue is. In the past I’ve discussed how important momentum is to newly promoted teams and it would appear that Southampton’s may have run out a little earlier than they were hoping.

There could also be some implications for the rest of the season. After tonight’s game, the only home game Southampton have left against a side currently in the top six is against Reading in April – they still have to travel to Hull, Middlesbrough and West Ham. Although they’ve beaten those teams at St. Mary’s, it’s fair to say that Southampton don’t travel well. Cardiff are in a similar position: their only remaining away game against a top six side is at Middlesbrough (in March) and having already won at Hull and Reading, a third away victory against their immediate rivals could be vital in the next few months.

The other game that will have an impact on the top – and also potentially at the bottom – of the table is at Portman Road. Ipswich have been terrible at home recently- one win in the last seven games – and have obvious defensive issues, so it’s not a good time to be playing the league leaders. It also doesn’t help when West Ham are also one of only five teams this season that have scored 20 or more away goals and haven’t lost in a league game at Ipswich since Christmas 1989.

I’ll be back at the end of the week with a quick round up of the midweek games and a look forward to the weekend’s games – which begin and end with derbies – but I can’t help thinking that whatever happens at St. Mary’s this evening, West Ham will still be top.

It’s the fourth round of the FA Cup this weekend and there are ten Championship clubs left in the tournament, but only one guaranteed spot in the fifth round. There are also two league games taking place this weekend and we’ll come to them later.

From a Championship perspective, the pick of the ties is this evening’s meeting between Watford and Spurs (7:45pm, ESPN) although it’s worth pointing out that The Hornets have never beaten Spurs in a cup competition and have only beaten Tottenham twice in 12 games at Vicarage Road. Having said that, despite their less than impressive league position at the moment, Watford have only lost two of their last ten home games and with the Premier League club having an injury crisis as well as a manager in the dock at the moment, the game could make very interesting viewing.

The rest of the cup ties this weekend are a mixed bag: arguably the biggest chance of an upset is at Pride Park, where Derby entertain Stoke City. In terms of upsets being caused against Championship sides, Birmingham make the trip to Sheffield United in a game that looks like anything but a straightforward and both Leicester and Hull will have to be at their best when Swindon Town and Crawley visit.

The only all Championship tie would normally be a candidate for game of the week: Southampton haven’t been at their best away from home recently (two wins in the last ten) and so the last place the Saints would probably want to visit at the moment is Millwall, who seem to have rediscovered the art of scoring goals recently.

However, once again this is one of those games where the away side has dominated the home team in recent meetings: Millwall have only won once in the last ten meetings between the clubs in all competitions in South London and you’ve got to back almost three and half decades to find the last time the Lions beat the visitors at home.

The other two televised games follow the same pattern as those of the Third Round. Newcastle haven’t played at Brighton (5:15pm, ESPN) for almost 20 years – and the last time Brighton played Newcastle in the Cup was in 1982/83, when the Sussex club reached the final and were beaten by Manchester United in a replay following the ‘…and Smith must score’ game. Despite having been knocked out of the African Cup of Nations, Newcastle will be without Senegalese strikers Papis Cisse and Demba Ba for the game.

ITV aren’t well known for changing what appears to be a winning formula and their coverage of the FA Cup seems to be evolving into ‘Sunderland v Championship club’ : Peterborough were the Mackems victims in the last round and this time they’re playing Middlesbrough (ITV1, 1:30pm). It’s been a while since they met in a Cup competition  when they weren’t in the same division, but it’s even longer ago since they met in the FA Cup at Sunderland: January 1934 to be precise, when Sunderland progressed to the Fourth Round after winning a replay at Ayresome Park.

There’s a full league programme on Tuesday night, but four clubs decided to bring forward their games to Saturday afternoon, which gives us a chance to take a look at two clubs that we’ve not mentioned recently. Game of the day in the league is Peterborough v Portsmouth: only two points separate them at the moment, but although Pompey have maintained their somewhat schizophrenic form this season (playoff material at home, bound for League 1 away), The Posh dropped out of the top ten in November and have only recorded two wins in their last ten games, so this is the type of game that could tell us how the rest of the season might pan out for these clubs over the rest of the season. Pompey were rocked by Tuesday’s news that they face a winding up order and could face administration – which is something  they’ll desperately want to avoid – a ten point deduction would automatically send them to the bottom of the  table.

With less than a week to go on the transfer deadline there’s still not been a great deal of activity, although Reading – who face Bristol City in the only other league game tomorrow have been in the middle of it. The Royals have signed Tomasz Cywka on a free transfer from Derby and Jason Roberts from Blackburn Rovers, but apart from some loan moves that’s been about it this week. However, by the time I preview Tuesday’s matches there may be news on more moves – including a possible conclusion to the Nicky Maynard saga.

Cardiff’s point at Doncaster shouldn’t have come as a surprise – as I pointed out last week the Bluebirds have a good record at Donny – but Middlesbrough chose last weekend to lose at home to Burnley for the first time in almost 30 years. Southampton and West Ham both won on the road and so in the space of an hour and a half the situation was back to almost exactly the same as it was a fortnight ago.

At the bottom of the table all six teams failed to win – Ipswich moved above Bristol City, but despite establishing a two goal lead over Blackpool the Tractor Boys failed to pick up three points. The biggest losers last weekend weren’t Millwall – although the dismissals of Adam Dunne and Shane Lowry during a 6-0 hammering by Birmingham isn’t exactly a contender for performance of the week – but Coventry City. The Sky Blues not only lost 1-0 at Pride Park, but Lukas Jutkiewicz joined Middlesbrough: the 22 year old striker was responsible for scoring nine of Coventry’s 20 league goals this season and his departure leaves a gap that may not be filled anytime soon.

The FA Cup replays took place earlier in the week: it was the turn of Leicester turn to stop Nottingham Forest from scoring and a hat-trick from Jermaine Beckford ensured that the Foxes will entertain Swindon at the King Power Stadium next weekend. Millwall took their frustrations out on Dagenham & Redbridge with three goals from Darius Henderson and a brace from Harry Kane and will play Southampton. Birmingham became the only Championship side to defeat a Premier League team in the cup so far this when a goal from Wade Elliott at Molineux saw the Blues into the fourth round. Brighton had to come from behind at the Racecourse Ground to beat Wrexham on penalties and will have a lucrative fourth round tie against Newcastle.

There are three candidates for game of the week this weekend: Doncaster visit Bristol City in the only game between teams in the bottom six and a win for either side could prove invaluable in the long term as current form indicates that Nottingham Forest won’t get anything at West Ham. So the choice this week is the potential playoff matchup between Reading at Hull at the Madjeski Stadium.

As you might expect from clubs in fifth and sixth place, neither club has a particularly strong record against the other clubs competing for promotion.  Despite an inconsistent start – as recently as the end of November they were in the bottom half of the table – Reading have only lost one of their last ten league games at home (to Cardiff) whereas Hull have lost at both Middlesbrough and Southampton in the last seven weeks. The Tigers don’t have a particularly good record in Berkshire, having only won twice in the ten visits to Reading since England won the World Cup and this looks like a difficult game for them, especially as Reading have won four consecutive games at the mad house and Hull haven’t been scoring much away from the KC.

Last game of the week is one the rare televised Monday night games outings for Championship teams when Leicester travel to St. Mary’s to take on the leaders (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) . If West Ham can pick up at least a point against Forest – which seems highly likely – than Southampton will have to make sure they don’t lose to Leicester. That outcome is also highly likely as this is yet another one of those games where history is favours one team. Leicester have failed to score in five of their last six games at either St. Mary’s or The Dell and have only won once on the South Coast since 1970.

Apart from Lukas Jutkiewicz’ move to Middlesbrough, there hasn’t been a great deal of business in the transfer market. Norwich have agreed terms with Leeds captain Johnny Howson and Ben Mee has joined Burnley from Manchester City but the two eye catching deals involve a player with no club and an ex-manager. Kelvin Etuhu – jailed for six months following a conviction for assault last year – has joined Portsmouth, while former Doncaster boss Sean O’Driscoll has joined Nottingham Forest as first team coach: if Forest continue their current form, it’s not inconceivable that O’Driscoll may find himself back in management sooner rather than later.

I’ll be back early next week with a round up of this weekend’s games and a preview of the second leg of the Carling Cup semi final. I’m also toying with the idea of having a full scale rant about a certain Premier League manager’s frankly ignorant ideas about having B teams from the Prem playing in the Championship, which I might save for next weekend…

This week as it’s more or less a case of ‘as you were’ in the Championship due to the FA Cup games last weekend and only one league game during the week when Birmingham beat Ipswich on Wednesday night. The Blues have now managed five single goal wins in the league at St Andrews this season: Nikola Zigic scored twice to move Birmingham two points outside the playoff spots with a game in hand and a much better goal difference than Hull.

The Serbian striker’s goal also condemned Ipswich to their third consecutive defeat. To make matters worse for the Tractor Boys – who have now lost ten of their last 15 games – under fire boss Paul Jewell made headlines for the wrong reasons following his post match comments about fourth official Amy Fearn.

After the irregular patters of the last few weeks and with the exception of the only televised game this weekend, we revert back to the traditional Saturday afternoon kick offs. With only two of the top six clubs at home this weekend there’s a chance that either Middlesbrough or Cardiff could go top if both Southampton (at Nottingham Forest) or West Ham (at Portsmouth) lose, while the only thing certain at the bottom end of the table is Coventry cannot escape the bottom three regardless of how they do at Derby.

By the time Reading kick off at Watford on Saturday evening in the weekend’s only televised game (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm), there may be a new team at the top of the Championship for the first time since September – so it makes sense that Nottingham Forest v Southampton is game of the week.

Those of us of a certain vintage will remember the 1979 League Cup Final between these two clubs, but it’s extremely unlikely that Steve Cotterill will be forcing his Forest side to drink their way through a crate of champagne this evening to prepare for the Saints. Considering the recent ups and downs of both clubs it’s a surprising that tomorrow’s game is only their second meeting at the City Ground this century, but equally surprising is that the hosts haven’t scored at home in the league since Marcus Tudgay netted another injury time winner against Ipswich in mid November.

On the other hand, Southampton are beginning to look as if they’ve run out of momentum. The leaders have only won twice since the end of November and haven’t won an away game since beating Coventry at the Ricoh Arena on Guy Fawkes Night: Rickie Lambert’s equaliser at Portsmouth before Christmas is the only goal Southampton have scored in their last four away games in the Championship.

If Southampton stumble at Nottingham Forest, it looks as if Cardiff may be best placed to take over top spot. The Bluebirds travel to Doncaster – and not to put too fine a point on it, Rovers’ record at home to Cardiff is absolutely terrible. Since their first league meeting in September 1947, Cardiff have only lost twice in 15 games at either the old Belle View stadium or at the Keepmoat.

Finally this week, nothing much seems to have happened in the transfer market so far but there are persistent rumours that both Billy Sharp and Lukas Jutkiewicz may be moving from Doncaster Rovers and Coventry City respectively, with Leicester City (surprise surprise) being the destination for one or maybe even both of them. If both Sharp and Jutkiewicz leave their current clubs before the winter window closes, it’s probably safe to say that there’ll only be one relegation place left to fill…

The fourth round will in all likelihood weed out even more Championship sides, with three clubs (Middlesbrough, Derby and Watford) facing Premier League opposition, leaving only Hull and Blackpool looking reasonable chances for progress to the fifth round.

Of the four sides facing replays, only Birmingham City emerged with any real credit having held Wolves to a draw in the Saturday lunchtime kick off. Millwall failed to score away from home again (this time at Dagenham & Redbridge) and despite taking the lead Brighton were held at home by Wrexham. None of the clubs with unresolved third round games have easy looking ties in the next round if they win their replays – neither Nottingham Forest or Leicester will fancy a visit from Paolo Di Canio’s Swindon, who knocked out Wigan at the Country Ground on Saturday.

Four clubs were knocked out by opposition from Leagues 1 and 2, although they can all make the excuse that they’ll be concentrating on the league. Reading – who’ve reached the quarter finals in the last two seasons – lost to Stevenage, who the Royals beat last year. West Ham lost to a late goal at Hillsborough: Sheffield Wednesday have now knocked out Championship teams out of the cup in the third round in consecutive seasons without conceding a goal. Wednesday’s victims last season – Bristol City – lost at Crawley and Doncaster lost at home to Notts County: both of those last two games could be League 1 matches next season.

At least the Championship is guaranteed a place at the Carling Cup final at Wembley at the end of February, so hopefully Crystal Palace and Cardiff can provide two games to remember. It’s only really over the last few seasons that Cardiff have reversed a long term trend of performing badly at Selhurst Park: even though the Bluebirds lost their last visit in the league (to a single goal from South African international Kagiko Dikgacoi last March), they’ve won three of their last six meetings in South London. The only other time these sides have met in this competition was in September 1969, when Palace won 3-1: the hosts went on to win seven of the next ten meetings between them.

Looking at more recent form, a couple of things stand out: Palace will have to score at least two goals to win. The Eagles haven’t done that since mid October in the league, but they’ve managed it in every round of this season’s Carling Cup including the brace that beat Manchester United in the last round. The other stat that is worth remembering is that there’s not been a draw between these two in South London since December 1984 and both Palace (at home) and Cardiff (away) have been involved in a lot of undecided games recently: Cardiff’s only other away game in the Carling Cup was a draw at Oxford United back in August and the Bluebirds only won on penalties at the Kassam Stadium.

There hasn’t really been much to report in the transfer market, although the rumour mill is grinding out the usual stories (most of which involve anyone that’s ever scored a goal in the Championship being linked with Leicester), so the only piece of news worth mentioning is that despite overseeing three consecutive league defeats, Nick Barmby has been appointed as permanent manager of Hull City.

I’ll be back on Friday afternoon with a recap of tonight’s game plus a look forward to the action at the weekend.

We’re now past the half way stage in this season’s nPower Championship and results over the Christmas break have set up what looks as if it could be an exciting conclusion to this season’s campaign.

At the top, the clear winners over Christmas were Cardiff and Reading, both of whom have clearly put their playoff misery behind them. The Bluebirds are now only two points behind Southampton and West Ham and although Reading’s festive season ended with a defeat at the Cardiff City stadium the Royals are now back in the top five for the first time since August.

The holidays couldn’t have gone any worse for Southampton and Hull. The leaders could only pick up three points from the nine available and lost their undefeated home record when a goal from Stephen Pearson gave Bristol City a surprise win at St. Mary’s and Southampton’s first home defeat in the league since losing to Brentford in December 2010. Apart from Ipswich – who I’ll be discussing in a moment – Hull were the only side not to record a win in their last three games and lost all three by a single goal. A few more poor results from the Tigers could see them slide dramatically down the table: they’ve already lost ten games this season.

However, Derby were clearly at the top of Santa’s Christmas list, having won all three of their games – an especially impressive feat as the teams they faced were fellow competitors for the playoff positions. The Rams are currently two points away from the top six and Nigel Clough’s team seem to have got over their poor form in November, when they only picked up one point.

At the bottom, Bristol City and Coventry picked up six points in three games but even that feat was something of a false dawn for the Sky Blues, who went back to the bottom of the table after losing to West Ham. They’re now three points behind Doncaster, seven points from safety and face a real battle to avoid dropping back into the third tier for the first time since 1964. Follow strugglers Nottingham Forest ended their goal drought when Marcus Tudgay opened the scoring after five minutes in their 3-1 win at Ipswich, but the Tractor Boys only picked up one point in their three games and could be sucked into a relegation battle.

Ipswich have been terrible recently – nine defeats in twelve games have seen them drop from sixth in mid October to 20th going into next week’s game at Birmingham City. The East Anglian side have conceded the most goals in the Championship so far this season (only Doncaster have a worse away defensive record) and it looks as if their form at Portman Road will be crucial over the next month: Cardiff, Middlesbrough and West Ham all have to travel to East Anglia.

For at least one weekend all the Championship clubs can put the league aside: the third round of the FA Cup takes place this weekend. Although I’ve pointed out more than once that the chances of a second tier club winning the competition are remote, it’s also worth pointing out that Championship clubs have reached the quarter finals at least in each of the last five seasons.

Blackpool, Watford, Middlesbrough, Brighton & Reading seem to have the best chances of making it to the fourth round, while Burnley, Cardiff, Leeds and Portsmouth already look as if they’re the teams that are going to be concentrating on the league for the rest of the season.

Three games involving Championship sides are being televised, starting with Birmingham v Wolves (ESPN Saturday 12:30pm) – these two were playing in the Premier League last season, but both were in the second tier when they last last met in the cup sixteen years ago. On that occasion Wolves won the replay after a draw at St. Andrew’s, which looks like it could happen again as this game looks as it if could be short of goals.

Sunday lunchtime’s game between Peterborough and Sunderland (ITV Sunday 1:30pm) is only the third meeting between these two sides at London Road in all competitions, but the Posh will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the first time they ever played Sunderland: a 7-1 defeat in the fourth round of the cup at Roker Park in 1967. That scoreline is unlikely to be repeated, but I’d not be surprised if there are goals in this one: the hosts have only failed to score in one home league game this season but have also only kept one home clean sheet in the Championship in 2011/12.

The last game of the round is also the final game on TV: Leeds drew with Arsenal at the Emirates in last year’s competition before losing the replay at Elland Road so Monday evening’s game  (ESPN Monday 7:45pm) gives the Yorkshire side a chance of revenge. Thanks to the Leeds fans it should be a good atmosphere at the Library, but there are a couple of big problems for Leeds if they want to progress: they haven’t won away since November and it looks increasingly likely that they’ll have to contend with the second coming of Thierry Henry.

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a roundup of the notable stories from the FA Cup plus a preview of the Carling Cup semi final first leg between Crystal Palace and Cardiff City and any transfer news that’s worth printing.

After having made a rash prediction a fortnight ago, I’ve obviously temporarily jinxed both Southampton and West Ham. Having taken the lead against Blackpool at St. Mary’s, the Saints only managed to salvage their unbeaten run thanks to an injury time equaliser by Rickie Lambert after the visitors had taken the lead thanks to a howler by Southampton’s Polish keeper Bartosz Bialkowski.

West Ham didn’t just lose at Reading, they imploded. You have to wonder if Big Sam wound his players up a little too tightly: Joey O’Brien can’t really complain about his two yellow cards for wild tackles, but although there was an element of taunting in Jimmy Kebe’s behaviour towards the end of the game, Jack Collison’s rush of blood was unpardonable and Neil Swarbrick was right to show the Welsh international a straight red card.

Hull won more comfortably at Coventry than the scoreline suggested and are in a good position going into Christmas programme. Despite the amazing comeback by Ipswich in the tea time game at Oakwell, the benefit of hindsight suggests that something spectacular might have been on the cards: prior to the game, there’d only been two other matches in the Championship this season that had featured eight goals: there are no prizes for guessing which teams were involved in a 5-3 defeat at Cardiff and a 7-1 drubbing at Peterborough.

This weekend is the penultimate Saturday programme for 2011 but with each club playing three games being played between Boxing Day and the 3^rd round of the FA Cup, you often hear pundits make the assumption that results over the festive season have a disproportionate impact of the success or failure of a club over the entire season. For example, this time year the three clubs that were eventually promoted were in the top six, while at the bottom half the clubs in the bottom six were eventually relegated. It was a similar story in 2009/10.

It might be more realistic to argue that results over the Christmas period give a long term indication of which direction a club could be heading. Last Christmas Coventry were in the last playoff place: after losing at Cardiff the Sky Blues only won one of their next sixteen games and have been in decline ever since. On the other hand, Middlesbrough were in the bottom six last Christmas but a 3-1 win at Preston was the start of a five game unbeaten run that effectively kick started their season.

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, Tony Mowbray’s finest 90 minutes in charge of Middlesbrough was their first win in Cardiff since October 1970. The end of season victory was as important for Boro as it was damaging for Cardiff: Mowbray’s side have shown that their form at the end of last season wasn’t a fluke. On the other hand, Cardiff have been rebuilt by Malky McKay – only two of the side that collapsed against Middlesbrough back in May played against Millwall last weekend – and are actually performing at a slightly better level than they were last season. There’s a clear incentive for both sides to go for the win this weekend as there’s a mathematical possibility that if this game produces a winner and West Ham fail to beat Barnsley, then either Cardiff or Boro could go second.

The big game at the wrong end of the table features two clubs that currently have a lot in common. Nottingham Forest are learning the same lesson as Bristol City did a year ago: when you have three managers in a calendar year, a collapse in home form and forget how to score goals it’s hard to be successful in the Championship. Although Messers McInnes and Cotterill were taken on to reverse the decline in South Bristol and the east bank of the Trent, it’s increasingly looking as if Steve Cotterill may have the harder job. The Forest boss could benefit from history this weekend though as Bristol City’s record against Forest at Ashton Gate is dire: the Robins haven’t beaten Forest in the league since December 1974 despite having had ten opportunities to do so. Four of the last six games between the sides in South Bristol have ended in draws – a result that neither side needs right now.

There are two televised games this weekend: if you don’t mind interrupting your Sunday lunch, the South Coast derby between Portsmouth and Southampton should be worth watching on (BBC2, 1:00pm) especially as it’s only the fourth league meeting at Fratton Park since Southampton won the FA Cup in 1976 and the third meeting in all competitions this century. Pompey’s home form is as good as any of the promotion contenders while it’s worth remembering that Southampton haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since August and lost their last two away games to sides in the bottom six.

On Monday night The Bleak Old Shop Of Stuff is on BBC2, which might have been a better name for Crystal Palace v Birmingham City (Sky Sports 7:45pm), which is the last game in the Championship before Christmas. Neither club has been in a particularly good run of form recently – despite knocking Manchester United out of the Carling Cup Palace haven’t won at Selhurst Park or scored more than one goal in a league game since mid October, while Birmingham have lost four of their last five games and have failed to score in three of those.

All being well I’ll be back before the end of next week with an overview of the games over the holiday period, but I’ll wish you all a Happy Christmas now just in case I get sidetracked by repeats of the Morecambe & Wise Show combined too many mince pies and glasses of port…

Seven clubs will be playing Premier League sides with half of them having home ties, although it seems odd writing about Burnley’s trip to Norwich as it was only last season that this would have been a league game. Barnley’s game against Swansea at Oakwell could be the best chance of an ‘upset’ even though once again this was league fixture in 2010/11. At the other end of the telescope, Portsmouth have to visit Chelsea in a repeat of the 2010 final but given Pompey’s poor away form I’d be surprised if that tie finished with a 1-0 scoreline this time round.

The Championship is guaranteed at least four clubs in the fourth round: Nottingham Forest play Leicester City, Southampton travel to Coventry, Derby entertain Crystal Palace and Hull take on Ipswich at the KC Stadium. That leaves nine clubs playing opposition below the Championship, although at the moment only Brighton (who will be playing Wrexham in the first FA Cup tie at the Amex Stadium) are the only club playing opposition outside the football league. If Fleetwood Town beat Yeovil in next Tuesday’s replay then Blackpool will have to make the seven mile trip north to visit the Trawlermen.

The FA Cup ties don’t take place until next month and so it’s back to league action – and there were some real coupon busters last weekend. Billy Sharp scored the only goal of the game as Doncaster Rovers beat Southampton and Burnley came from behind to beat West Ham at Upton Park for the first time since 1973. Those results meant that the goal that Kenny Miller scored for Cardiff against Birmingham on Sunday lunchtime was very significant: the Bluebirds could overtake West Ham this weekend but more of that later. Middlesbrough needed some questionable referring at Ashton Gate to record their sixth win away from home this season, while Hull’s two wins in the space of a week means they’re back in the top six.

At the bottom of the table, Coventry’s defeat at Portsmouth and Doncaster’s surprise win means that Sky Blues fans could be facing a very miserable Christmas as their team is now rock bottom. Nottingham Forest  join them in the bottom three – since Steve Cotterill took over in mid October, Forest have lost five of their nine league games and have failed to score in their last three.

There are two televised games this weekend: the first is between Southampton v Blackpool (Sky Sports 2, 12:45pm) both of whom were outside the Championship last season but have made good starts in 2011/12. Although the Tangerines won the last time these two met in the league, it’s not been a happy hunting ground for them over the years and considering Saints impressive home record Ian Holloway’s side could struggle at St. Mary’s.

Although there’s no outstanding candidate for game of the week, there are a couple of 3:00pm kick offs that could be worth keeping an eye on as they involve teams at either end of the table. If Cardiff City win at the New Den and West Ham lose at Reading, the Bluebirds will move into the second automatic promotion spot – although it’s a big if as the Welsh club haven’t won at Millwall since September 1982 and the last four league games between the sides in South London have ended all square.

Hull travel to the Ricoh Arena having lost two of their last three away games but there are some signs that caretaker manager Nicky Barmby has removed the ‘defence first’ mentality that characterised the Tigers under Nigel Pearson. To make matters even worse for the hosts, they’re still far too reliant on Lukas Jutkiewicz for goals: rumours are beginning to circulate that Coventry’s leading scorer could be on the way to Southampton during the transfer window – a move that would ensure the short term financial future of the club but would appear to cast doubts over their future as a Championship team.

The teatime game is Barnsley v Ipswich (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm) – under the management of former Rochdale boss Keith Hill the Tykes have quietly crept up the table and are now just three points off the playoff positions. There are no household names in the Barnsley side, but when you’ve got a promising young goalscoring defender like Jacob Butterfield playing behind Craig Davies and Ricardo Vaz Te then you probably don’t need them. I wasn’t very complimentary about the Tractor Boys last week and despite taking the lead against Watford on Saturday thanks to Keith Andrews, two goals in four minutes meant a seventh consecutive defeat for Paul Jewel’s side, who are now only outside the bottom three on goal difference.

The winners of manager of the month and player of the month awards for November were announced on Friday afternoon and although I don’t normally mention them, under the circumstances I think it’s worth highlighting that Billy Sharp of Doncaster Rovers won the award for player of the month.  In case anyone’s forgotten Sharp’s story, you can read it here: he deserves an award – however inconsequential – after the terrible few weeks he’s been through.

The Bluebirds reached the semi finals on Tuesday with a straightforward 2-0 win. Rovers’ manager Steve Kean seems to have confused the words ‘forfeit’ and ‘forego’ in his post match comments, but he cannot escape the fact that the Bluebirds deserved the win and are currently only three places behind Blackburn in the league.

On Wednesday evening goals from Darren Ambrose and Glenn Murray helped Crystal Palace beat Manchester United at Old Trafford. While not wishing to lessen Palace’s achievement, it’s probably fair to say that most of the teams in the Championship would have had a decent chance of beating the side Fergie Sr. picked to play the Eagles. As I pointed out last weekend, Palace have been struggling to score recently and the fact they scored two at the ‘Theatre of Dreams’ says more about the quality of United’s second string back four than Palace’s ability in front of goal.

The semi final draw means that there’ll be a club from the Championship in the Carling Cup final for the first time since 2001 as the draw paired the surviving clubs. The first leg will be held at Selhurst Park during the week commencing 9th January with the return two weeks later.

Back to the league programme this weekend and I’m going to make a rash prediction: the rest of this season is going to be about the playoff places and the last relegation place.

Southampton and West Ham have established what might be an insurmountable six point gap at the top: both clubs are averaging over two points per game, which is important as all of the last 20 sides to win the second tier title have averaged at least 2.03 points per game. It’s not unreasonable to expect that one of the top two will fall away slightly but the question is which one.

In playoff terms, the clubs that look likely to maintain their positions are Middlesbrough, Cardiff City (again!), Birmingham City and Leeds, although obviously plenty can happen before the end of the season.

At the bottom, Doncaster and Coventry are both eight points from safety and they’re currently on target to at least equal Rotherham’s meagre 29 point total in 2004/05: the Millers finished were relegated, having finished 15 points adrift at the bottom.

Tuesday’s results meant that there are only two points separating the clubs in 17th to 22nd position, but a glance at the form table shows a very different picture. I’ve mentioned Bristol City’s improvement under Derek McInnes recently, but Sean Dyche deserves a  mention for the work he’s done at Watford in the past month: the Hornets are have only lost one of their last six games and could have taken more than a point from Bristol City if Adam Mariappa and Scott Loach hadn’t combined to score a classic own goal.

The biggest headscratcher in the Championship at the moment is what on earth is going on at Ipswich Town. As recently as mid October the Tractor Boys were sixth: six consecutive defeats later and they’re one place above the relegation zone. The quick answer may be the worst defence in the division.

This weekend the games are spread over three days: Crystal Palace play their second televised game in 48 hours when they entertain Derby at Selhurst Park later on (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm). Although the Rams haven’t beaten the Eagles away from home since Septmber 2002, they must fancy their chances: injuries to Sean Scannell and Dean Moxey at Old Trafford could weaken a Palace side that may be exhausted both physically and mentally.

The first game on Saturday is between Leeds and Millwall tomorrow lunchtime but arguably the pick of the 3:00pm games is the  clash between Portsmouth and Coventry. The hosts well documented financial problems appeared to be over but Russian owner Vladimir Antonov stepped down on Tuesday after having been arrested following an inquiry into asset stripping; it remains to be seen if Antonov’s arrest will have any impact on Pompey’s immediate future.

On the pitch, things aren’t that bad at Fratton Park: Portsmouth haven’t lost at home since the end of September and have conceded fewer goals at home than five of the top six clubs. However, their away form is almost as bad as Coventry’s: the Sky Blues haven’t picked up all three points on their travels since beating Portsmouth in April – their only win away from home in the last year.

The last game on Saturday is at Ashton Gate, when Bristol City take on Middlesbrough (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm): the visitors have won two of their last three visits to the South West but haven’t won a game since the start of last month and can’t really afford to drop any more points if they’re going to keep up with the league leaders.

The weekend’s action finishes in Cardiff on Sunday lunchtime, when Birmingham City are the visitors in a game that was moved due to both a rugby union international and Blues’ game in Braga on Wednesday night. It’s an important game for both sides: although Cardiff can’t overtake West Ham they can establish themselves in third place if they win and Middlesbrough fail to win at the other end of the Severn Bridge on Saturday evening. Birmingham are running out of games in hand (they play Hull on Wednesday night) and could do their playoff chances a lot of good with a win: under those circumstances it’s probably pointing out that there’s not been a draw between these two in a league game in South Wales for nearly 40 years…

If you believe the bookies then only Cardiff City of our two remaining representatives have much chance of reaching the semi finals. The last time the Bluebirds met Blackburn Rovers in South Wales was in the FA Cup at Ninian Park in January 2005; the game finished 1-1 and Rovers won the replay at Ewood Park. However, poor form in the Premier League, fan unrest surrounding the manager and the board and the prospect of appearing in these posts next season mean that if Cardiff win it could be the last straw at Blackburn.

At the weekend, Bristol City’s victory over Southampton showed exactly how competitive and surprising the football league is, both Burnley and Reading came from behind to win away from home and Leeds managed to go up the table despite losing to Barnsley at Elland Road.

Overall, the gaps at the top and bottom have closed up: West Ham could overtake Southampton if results go the right way tonight, while the bottom half of the table could be unrecognisable by Sunday morning.

Unfortunately, we also had plastic bottles thrown on to the pitch at Selhurst Park during the South London derby and the entire weekend was overshadowed by Gary Speed’s untimely death. Speed began his short managerial career in the Championship with Sheffield United last season, but was at Bramhall Lane for less than two months before being appointed as Wales manager.

Game of the evening in the league is Middlesbrough against West Ham at the Riverside, but a quick look at the form book is inconclusive other than suggesting that a stalemate is highly likely – even though the Hammers have only won one of their last ten trips to Teeside.

Once again though, it’s the bottom of the table where the situation is most fluid. Coventry and Doncaster both lost on Saturday and are now six points behind Bristol City and seven points from safety: both clubs have one fewer point than Preston did at this stage last season and we all know how that turned out.

Doncaster travel to Millwall in their first away game against a team in the current bottom six: the Lions have already beaten both Coventry and Nottingham Forest at the New Den this season and even though they’re currently in the middle of the roughest patch of form since they were promoted, Kenny Jackett’s side don’t look as if they’ll lose this one.

The most intriguing game at the wrong end of the table is Bristol City’s trip to Watford: the Robins have won three of their last four trips to Vicarage Road and could move out of the bottom three with a win. Watford’s precarious position is based on their away form and although they’ve won three on the bounce at home and seem to have tightened up defensively in recent games, it’s probably the worst time for them to run into tonight’s opponents.

Tomorrow night Crystal Palace will be attempting the seemingly impossible at Old Trafford in the Carling Cup: they’ve not beaten Manchester United since December 1989, they haven’t scored an away goal since the end of last month and haven’t scored a goal in any competition since Jermain Easter’s penalty against Southampton in the Carling Cup.

I’ll be back later in the week with a roundup of the midweek action, which starts on Friday night when Palace – who’ll probably be exhausted by then – play Derby.