Seven clubs will be playing Premier League sides with half of them having home ties, although it seems odd writing about Burnley’s trip to Norwich as it was only last season that this would have been a league game. Barnley’s game against Swansea at Oakwell could be the best chance of an ‘upset’ even though once again this was league fixture in 2010/11. At the other end of the telescope, Portsmouth have to visit Chelsea in a repeat of the 2010 final but given Pompey’s poor away form I’d be surprised if that tie finished with a 1-0 scoreline this time round.

The Championship is guaranteed at least four clubs in the fourth round: Nottingham Forest play Leicester City, Southampton travel to Coventry, Derby entertain Crystal Palace and Hull take on Ipswich at the KC Stadium. That leaves nine clubs playing opposition below the Championship, although at the moment only Brighton (who will be playing Wrexham in the first FA Cup tie at the Amex Stadium) are the only club playing opposition outside the football league. If Fleetwood Town beat Yeovil in next Tuesday’s replay then Blackpool will have to make the seven mile trip north to visit the Trawlermen.

The FA Cup ties don’t take place until next month and so it’s back to league action – and there were some real coupon busters last weekend. Billy Sharp scored the only goal of the game as Doncaster Rovers beat Southampton and Burnley came from behind to beat West Ham at Upton Park for the first time since 1973. Those results meant that the goal that Kenny Miller scored for Cardiff against Birmingham on Sunday lunchtime was very significant: the Bluebirds could overtake West Ham this weekend but more of that later. Middlesbrough needed some questionable referring at Ashton Gate to record their sixth win away from home this season, while Hull’s two wins in the space of a week means they’re back in the top six.

At the bottom of the table, Coventry’s defeat at Portsmouth and Doncaster’s surprise win means that Sky Blues fans could be facing a very miserable Christmas as their team is now rock bottom. Nottingham Forest  join them in the bottom three – since Steve Cotterill took over in mid October, Forest have lost five of their nine league games and have failed to score in their last three.

There are two televised games this weekend: the first is between Southampton v Blackpool (Sky Sports 2, 12:45pm) both of whom were outside the Championship last season but have made good starts in 2011/12. Although the Tangerines won the last time these two met in the league, it’s not been a happy hunting ground for them over the years and considering Saints impressive home record Ian Holloway’s side could struggle at St. Mary’s.

Although there’s no outstanding candidate for game of the week, there are a couple of 3:00pm kick offs that could be worth keeping an eye on as they involve teams at either end of the table. If Cardiff City win at the New Den and West Ham lose at Reading, the Bluebirds will move into the second automatic promotion spot – although it’s a big if as the Welsh club haven’t won at Millwall since September 1982 and the last four league games between the sides in South London have ended all square.

Hull travel to the Ricoh Arena having lost two of their last three away games but there are some signs that caretaker manager Nicky Barmby has removed the ‘defence first’ mentality that characterised the Tigers under Nigel Pearson. To make matters even worse for the hosts, they’re still far too reliant on Lukas Jutkiewicz for goals: rumours are beginning to circulate that Coventry’s leading scorer could be on the way to Southampton during the transfer window – a move that would ensure the short term financial future of the club but would appear to cast doubts over their future as a Championship team.

The teatime game is Barnsley v Ipswich (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm) – under the management of former Rochdale boss Keith Hill the Tykes have quietly crept up the table and are now just three points off the playoff positions. There are no household names in the Barnsley side, but when you’ve got a promising young goalscoring defender like Jacob Butterfield playing behind Craig Davies and Ricardo Vaz Te then you probably don’t need them. I wasn’t very complimentary about the Tractor Boys last week and despite taking the lead against Watford on Saturday thanks to Keith Andrews, two goals in four minutes meant a seventh consecutive defeat for Paul Jewel’s side, who are now only outside the bottom three on goal difference.

The winners of manager of the month and player of the month awards for November were announced on Friday afternoon and although I don’t normally mention them, under the circumstances I think it’s worth highlighting that Billy Sharp of Doncaster Rovers won the award for player of the month.  In case anyone’s forgotten Sharp’s story, you can read it here: he deserves an award – however inconsequential – after the terrible few weeks he’s been through.

Yesterday’s win means that Swansea become the third team in the last five seasons to have been promoted via the playoffs after having finished the regular season in third place. However, six of the last ten Championship playoff winners have been relegated from the Premier League after one season, with eight of those ten sides finishing in the bottom five.

However, Swansea’s outstanding defensive record this season could stand them in good stead - Ipswich also only conceded 42 goals when they were promoted to the Premier League via the playoffs in 2000 and the Tractor Boys finished 5th the following season.

Reading have now lost both of their second tier play off finals – Bolton beat them in 1995 – and face a challenge of their own next season. Only once in the last two decades has a losing Championship playoff finalist reached the final the following season (Leicester in 1992/93) and seven of the last ten losers failed to qualify for the playoffs. Since 2001, only WBA (champions)and West Ham (playoffs) have been promoted the season after losing the final.

However, there’s a slight difference in this season’s final – Reading reached the quarter finals of the FA Cup by beating two teams from the Premier League and were only beaten 1-0 by eventual winners Manchester City. Despite the obvious distraction, the Royals were never outside the top ten places for the last third of the season and have only lost once in their last eighteen games.

Swansea had no distractions – early exits in both the Carling Cup and the FA Cup look as if they may have helped Brendan Rogers’ side – and they’ve been automatic promotion candidates all season. It’s not hard to see why: a fearsome home record with the second best defence in the Championship. Only Cardiff, Portsmouth and Bristol City won at the Liberty Stadium this season and only Pompey and Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal there. Additionally, their fourteen home clean sheets was the best in the Championship this season.

Sadly for Swansea, the playoff final doesn’t take place at the Liberty Stadium and this could be a major disadvantage for them this afternoon. Their 2-0 win at Millwall at the end of April was their first away win in six games and despite drawing with ten men against Nottingham Forest in the first leg of the playoff semi final, it was Swansea’s away form that ultimately cost them automatic promotion: they lost at all three of the clubs that will be playing in League 1 next season.

Reading were the Championship’s away draw specialists in 2010/11 and their ability to grind out results away from the Madjewski stadium is one of the main reasons they find themselves one game away from a return to the Premier League. Their last away defeat was at Norwich in February: since then they’ve won four and drawn four of their regular season road trips.

Sixteen of last 20 Championship play off finals have been settled in normal time, the last game that went to extra time was when Birmingham City beat Norwich in 2002, which was also the last final to go to a penalty shoot out. Until last year’s spectacular final, nine of the last ten games had been either been tight (five 1-0 victories) or one sided blowouts (3-0 wins for Bolton, Wolves and Watford) with only one team scoring in nine of the last ten games.

Although a repeat of a five goal first half would be fun to watch from a neutral point of view, seven of the last ten games (including Blackpool v Cardiff) have been settled by one goal – and considering that Swansea beat Reading 1-0 at home and away this season, this game looks as if it could be a return to the low scoring finals of recent seasons. Both teams have competed in the Championship since 2008/09 but Reading haven’t beaten Swansea since a 4-0 win in Berkshire in September 2008 and Swansea have won three of the last five – and all of those games featured under two goals.

Finally, congratulations to Peterborough United, who returned to the Championship after one season in League 1 following a 3-0 win over Huddersfield Town in yesterday’s play off final. The Posh’s all out attacking style could be fun to watch next season, although the only team that conceded more goals than them in League 1 (Bristol Rovers) were relegated and the club doesn’t have a history of success in the second tier, having been relegated in two of their three seasons at Championship level in the last two decades.

Upate No.1: It was announced on Monday lunchtime that Dave Jones has left Cardiff City. Sean O’Driscoll of Doncaster Rovers becomes the longest tenured manager in the Championship.

However, at times during the game at the City Ground it was difficult to tell which team had ten men – Forest were shut out at home for the fourth time this season as the Swans demonstrated why they had the second best defence in the division last season. Only QPR conceded fewer goals.

The second leg looks as if it could be just as tight. Swansea have won two of the last three league games against Forest, with the visitors having only won once since 2005/2006: a single goal from David McGoldrick was enough to earn Nottingham Forest all three points in December 2009.

Scoring was a problem for Forest last week and it could well be the same issue this evening: Swansea kept fourteen home clean sheets in the league this season  and only two teams (Forest and Portsmouth) scored more than one goal at the Liberty Stadium. Forest kept six clean sheets on the road in 2010/11 but only managed two in the last ten games and lost 3-2 to Swansea in March.

The other tie is also balanced on a knife edge. It was absolutely impossible to separate Reading and Cardiff City on Friday evening and tomorrow’s game (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) might be the one that has to go to extra time. The Bluebirds have only beaten the visitors three times in their last ten meetings with three of the last six games being drawn – and Reading were this year’s away draw specialists in the Championship, are currently on an eight game unbeaten streak away from the Madejski and haven’t conceded a four of their last five road trips.

Despite holding home advantage in the second leg, Cardiff’s recent home form hasn’t been that good. The 3-0 home defeat by Middlesbrough was surrounded by controversy about the behaviour of some of the players before and after the game and the hosts have only won two of their last six games at the Cardiff City stadium. Although this is a tremendously important game for both sides, the pressure is on Cardiff to perform – another failure to win promotion to the Premier League after their recent near misses could have a profoundly negative impact on the side from the Welsh capital next season. The possible loss of home town hero Craig Bellamy may be crucial: he limped off after 17 minutes in the first game.

With the playoffs underway and battle to stay Premier League reaching a climax next weekend, West Ham’s return to the Championship had looked inevitable from the start of the season. The Hammers last period in the Championship lasted two seasons and they reached the playoff final in consecutive seasons, losing to Crystal Palace in 2004 and beating Preston in 2005. It’s too early to say how they’ll do next season, but it might be the final chance for fans of Championship teams to visit The Boleyn Ground: it’s also highly likely that West Ham will feature in a lot of next season’s televised games – including a few that will have early kick offs following police advice.

UPDATE: Reading will play Swansea in the final at Wembley on Monday May 30th.

There’s only one thing that your club has to do if you want to be promoted via the Championship play offs.

Don’t finish fourth.

The stark situation facing Cardiff City is that the last time a club that finished fourth in the second tier of English football was promoted via the play offs was twelve seasons ago. In May 1998, Charlton beat Sunderland on penalties after extra time in one of the most remarkable games ever seen at the old Wembley Stadium. Since then, Barnsley, Preston, West Ham, WBA, Bristol City and Cardiff themselves have finished fourth, reached the playoff final and lost.

Some other interesting trends are that the last three playoff final winners were making their first appearance in the Championship playoffs and two of them (Burnley and Blackpool) had been absent from the top tier for some time. Both trends are encouraging for Swansea – who last played in the old first division almost 30 years ago – and the latter is good news for Cardiff: it’s been almost 50 years since they were relegated to the old second division.

Reading can take heart from the fact that if they reach the final they’re far more likely to win promotion: fifth placed teams have provided half of the finalists in the last decade, with Burnley (2008/9), Wolves (2002/3) and Birmingham City (2001/2) progressing to the Premier League. It’s a similar story with sixth placed clubs – three of the last four clubs that qualified for the final won it - and even better news for Forest and Reading is that since 2000/01 the clubs finish fifth and six have won more finals since the team finishing third.

It’s easy for fans of the other Championship to look at the playoffs and either wonder about what might have been or could be next season, but for the fans of the teams that have reached the post season it’s torture. In some respects it may be better to be overwhelmed in the first round: having had recent experience of the highs and lows of the playoffs, the worst thing that can happen is an unexpected away win, a home win that only materialises in extra time and then having your hopes crushed at Wembley.

Rather than dwelling on the past, let’s take a look at the first legs of the semi finals. This evening Nottingham Forest host Swansea (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) and it looks as if Forest could have a slim advantages. Swansea’s away form this season has declined slightly from 2009/10 and the Swans have only won two of their last ten games at the City Ground, losing 3-1 to Forest at the end of September. On the other hand, Billy Davies’ side have only lost twice at home in the Championship this season: the key statistic in this game might be that Swansea have conceded a goal in 16 of their 23 away games this season. Although we’re probably not likely to see a goal fest at the City Ground there a couple of unlikely scorelines: 0-0 and a repeat of the game in the old second division in September 1952, which Forest won 6-4!

Cardiff’s trip to Reading  on Friday evening (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) looks as if it will be a much more difficult game to predict, especially as both sides actually performed at a higher level this season than they did in 2009/10. Although the Bluebirds have only won once in their last five trips to Berkshire, Reading haven’t beaten Cardiff at the Madjewski since January 2006 and both league games were drawn this season. Once again, a goalless draw looks unlikely, especially as Shane Long andJay Bothroyd have been banging the goals in for both clubs this season.

Finally, congratulations to Southampton for being promoted to the Championship after finishing runners up to Brighton in League 1. The Saints return to second tier football after two seasons and will no doubt be hoping to ‘do a Norwich’ next season.

Whether you agree with the outcome, no one can disagree that once again the FA have proved how incompetent an organisation they are by leaving this importance decision to the very last day of the Championship season.

The result not only affected Queen’s Park Rangers promotion to the Premiership but also the play-off matches.

So QPR are promoted as champions even though they were beaten today by Leeds United; and following today’s other results, Swansea will play Nottm Forest and Cardiff will play Reading with the possibility of an all-Welsh final if Swansea and Cardiff.  That would be a great game for the neutral and a nightmare to police. But whoever gets through to the Play-off final it will no doubt be a fitting finale to yet another exciting Championship season.

The first issue to be settled this season was not a huge surprise: Prestonwere relegated on Monday. Having been promoted in 1999/2000, the Lillywhites reached the playoffs four times and had six top ten finishes during their stay in the Championship, but only spent one week outside the bottom five places this season and had been in the relegation zone since mid November. Their recent mini revival (one defeat in seven games) was ended abruptly when they were hammered at Millwall and a home defeat by Cardiff confirmed their fate.

Five clubs won both games over the Easter holiday: Nottingham Forest, Millwall and Norwich all collected six points, but Sheffield United’s two wins - the first time they’ve won back to back games since November -probably came too late to save them. Middlesbrough finally seem to have found the type of form that had them installed as pre-season favourites: they’ve only lost one of their last ten games and perhaps 2011/12 might be the time to back them for promotion.

At the other end of the success scale, three teams other than Preston lost both their games. Ipswich and Bristol City haven’t exactly set the competition alight this season and although Derby were beaten by Burnley and Norwich, they are more or less safe.

Before we look at this weekend’s matches, it’s worth recapping what’s at stake. Norwich can still overtake QPR but Cardiff can only equal their points total – but for either of those scenarios to happen, the leaders would have to lose both their remaining games. The last play off place looks like a four way competition between Forest, Millwall, Burnley and Leeds, but anything could – and probably will – happen over the next couple of weeks.

The situation at the bottom is a lot clearer. If Doncaster beat Leicester on Saturday afternoon, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe are both down. If Doncaster don’t beat Leicester, the Blades and the Iron must win both of their remaining games to stand any chance of avoiding the drop, but as both of them have one game against teams that are chasing promotion this looks unlikely. Doncaster and Crystal Palace could still be relegated but there would have to be a couple of ridiculous scorelines to overturn the advantage they have in terms of both points and goal difference.

The weekend’s games kick off at 12:45pm (Sky Sports 2) on Saturday when Burnley travel to Leeds – neither team are out of contention for the playoffs but on current form the Clarets look the more likely to be battling for a place in the Premier League next month.

The games of the week are at the City Ground and the New Den, where all four sides need to win for different reasons. In another one of those surprising stats that have cropped up this season, Scunthorpe have won two of their their last three league visits to Nottingham Forest and won the game at Glanford Park in February so Forest need to be at their best.

Swansea haven’t won at Millwall since March 1930 and have lost nine of the twelve games there since since, so it’s probably just as well that the Swans have a guaranteed playoff place. The Lions have probably outperformed expectations this season and although they’ve been outside the top six since the autumn, there always seems to be one surprise team in contention for promotion at the end of the season and Millwall certainly fit the bill.

This week’s games finish on Monday, when Cardiff host Middlesbrough and Norwich travel to Portsmouth in another double header on Sky Sports 1 (5:00pm onwards). They may be playing for the automatic promotion place by then.

There were no big changes following last week’s games although Reading broke the 70 point barrier and the race for the last playoff spot is even more wide open after Swansea, Leeds and Nottingham Forest all dropped points after taking the lead. Swansea and Forest both lost and Leeds were lucky to escape with a point at home to Watford at Elland Road when the Hornets’ Troy Deeney scored a late own goal.

Leeds were also the subjects of one of the more intriguing off-field stories of the week: following questions asked by MPs on the Culture, Media and Sport committee that’s currently carrying out an enquiry on how football is being run, the FA was forced to admit that they did not know who actually owned the club – which could have some very serious implications, especially if United are promoted this season.

At the foot of the table, Sheffield United will have to win all of their remaining games to stand any chance of staying up, but with two of their last four games at Reading and Swansea that looks like a tall order. The last two spots could come down to a classic end of season relegation scrap. Since he took over at Preston, Phil Brown’s side have hit form at exactly the right time to escape the bottom three – the Lillywhites have only lost once in the last six games and don’t have a particularly difficult looking run in. On the other hand, Doncaster Roverscould be in real trouble if they don’t start winning soon – one victory in the last fifteen games and no wins at the Keepmoat Stadium since the beginning of February.

The Easter programme starts with the East Anglia derby this evening, but Good Friday sees the first of the games that are important in a wider context. In the afternoon Crystal Palace travel to Doncaster in an absolutely vital game for both teams: the Eagles’ away form has been just as bad as Doncaster’s has been at home. Palace have lost all of their away games against the current bottom six and although Donny have beaten Scunthorpe and Sheffield United this season, those wins seem a long time ago now.

 As soon as that game is over, there’s a Championship double header on Sky Sports 1. Nottingham Forest v Leicester (5:15pm) features two sides that could still qualify for the playoffs, but the outstanding game on Friday is Leeds v Reading (7:45pm). The Royals have never won at Elland Road but if Forest beat Leicester, Leeds will be out of the playoff places and will need to win this game to regain a top six spot.

On Saturday lunchtime it’s the biggest game of the season so far: QPR travel to Cardiff. There is an awful lot riding on this game: the Bluebirds could still overtake QPR but they need to win this game to stand any chance of both winning the title and ensuring automatic promotion. Unfortunately, the leaders have won five of the last ten league meetings in the Welsh capital but the last time these clubs met in such an important game, a single goal at the Millennium Stadium meant that Cardiff won the 2002/03 League 1 play off final.

The Championship team of the year was announced earlier this week and it wasn’t that much of a surprise, with eight of the 11 players coming from teams in the current top ten positions. More surprising was the absence of any players from Cardiff or Leeds and the inclusion of Grant Holt, especially as Reading’s Shane Long has scored more goals for his club this season – it’s plausible that Holt was included as he’s been on TV more often this season.

So what sort of punishment can QPR face if they’re found guilty? If – as widely expected – they win the Championship before the end of the season, the possible sanctions include points deductions and/or fines, but whether the FA consider the alleged offenses serious enough to prevent the club from being promoted to the Premier League is another matter. It’s more likely that QPR face a points deduction that could have a serious impact next season – regardless of which division they’re playing in.

On the field, having beaten Scunthorpe 6-0 last Saturday Norwich became the second club to reach the 70 point barrier and pretty much guarantee a play off spot. The Canaries have a four point lead over Cardiff (who beat Derby) and Swansea (who lost at Preston); after having been in the top six since the end of January, Nottingham Forest dropped out of the play off positions following their 4-1 thrashing at Leeds and were replaced by Reading.

At the bottom of the table, a 2-0 win over Watford ended a spell of seven games without a win for Coventry and should be enough ensure Championship football at the Ricoh Arena next season. Like Derby, Doncaster also lost but barring some sensation results before the end of the month they should also be safe.

The first of the games of the week is Reading’s trip to Nottingham Forest which is vital for any promotion hopes that Forest might have: they’ve only picked up one point from the last fifteen available and cannot really afford to drop any more with both Burnley and Millwall just behind them. Most Championship sides would have been happy with Reading’s season (a solid mid table team with a decent cup run), but the Royals haven’t lost since February and have won their last five games.

There are two games between teams in the top six and bottom six this weekend: Doncaster’s home record against Cardiff is dreadful, with Rovers having won just two of their fourteen league games in Yorkshire against the Bluebirds since 1947/48. Scunthorpe’s home record against QPR is just as bad – Saturday’s game will be the sixth time that they’ve met in the league in Lincolnshire and the Iron have only won once.

The second game of the week should be a cracker – Swansea and Norwich (Sky Sports 1, 5:20pm) could be a play off semi final in a few weeks time but if that’s going to happen the hosts need to win. The Swans have beaten Leeds and Reading at home this season but failed to win the other two games at the Liberty Stadium against the other sides in the current top six: Norwich have drawn at Leeds, QPR and Reading and a low scoring draw isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

If Queens Park Rangers continue at their current pace – exactly two points per game – they’ll finish on 92 points, a total that would have won four of the last Championship titles. There’s still plenty to play for though: arguably any team in the top half of the table could put together a string of results that could mean a chance of promotion.

70 points might be too much to ask for the bottom half dozen teams, who could all still find themselves staring relegation in the face at the end of this month. An average of over one point per game should be enough to guarantee safety, but it doesn’t always work like that: at the end of 2007/08, Leicester City were relegated with 52 points.

This weekend’s programme contains four games that will have an impact on the top and bottom of the table: fortunately for fans of teams in the nPower Championship, a rare alignment of the planets means that this week’s game of the week is not only the first game of the weekend but is also being broadcast live on BBC1!

Leeds v Nottingham Forest (BBC1, 12:45pm) is the first of five games this month between sides in the current top six and should be far more competitive than the Premier League game on Sky Sports. Although both league games in Yorkshire since the turn of the century have been draws, Forest haven’t won at Elland Road since April 1996: Leeds’ last home defeat was in October – when Cardiff beat them 4-0 – but Simon Grayson’s side have only won half of their home games since then.

Of games that kick off at 3:00pm, Swansea’s trip to Preston looks like it could be crucial for the long term ambitions of both teams. The Phil Brown inspired revival seems to have started at Deepdale: North End are on a two game winning streak and although they’ve yet to beat any of the top six sides at home, Swansea’s 1-0 defeats at Scunthorpe and Sheffield United earlier this season show that the South Wales side are not invincible. The problem for Preston is after tomorrow’s game they have three away games in a row before Sheffield United visit on April 16th.

It would be a major surprise if Scunthorpe got anything from their trip to Norwich City, which will be Alan Knill’s first game in charge since his appointment on Thursday. The Iron have failed to score in any of their away games against the current top six this season and Michael Collins’ consolation goal at Barnsley last month is the away only goal they’ve scored the Championship in 2011.

The last game of the weekend is QPR v Sheffield United on Monday night (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm): although the Blades have drawn their last three visits to Loftus Road, having lost nine of their last ten away games in the Championship indicates that it would take a minor miracle for United take take any points back up the M1 with them this time.