Yesterday’s win means that Swansea become the third team in the last five seasons to have been promoted via the playoffs after having finished the regular season in third place. However, six of the last ten Championship playoff winners have been relegated from the Premier League after one season, with eight of those ten sides finishing in the bottom five.

However, Swansea’s outstanding defensive record this season could stand them in good stead - Ipswich also only conceded 42 goals when they were promoted to the Premier League via the playoffs in 2000 and the Tractor Boys finished 5th the following season.

Reading have now lost both of their second tier play off finals – Bolton beat them in 1995 – and face a challenge of their own next season. Only once in the last two decades has a losing Championship playoff finalist reached the final the following season (Leicester in 1992/93) and seven of the last ten losers failed to qualify for the playoffs. Since 2001, only WBA (champions)and West Ham (playoffs) have been promoted the season after losing the final.

There’s only one thing that your club has to do if you want to be promoted via the Championship play offs.

Don’t finish fourth.

The stark situation facing Cardiff City is that the last time a club that finished fourth in the second tier of English football was promoted via the play offs was twelve seasons ago. In May 1998, Charlton beat Sunderland on penalties after extra time in one of the most remarkable games ever seen at the old Wembley Stadium. Since then, Barnsley, Preston, West Ham, WBA, Bristol City and Cardiff themselves have finished fourth, reached the playoff final and lost.

Some other interesting trends are that the last three playoff final winners were making their first appearance in the Championship playoffs and two of them (Burnley and Blackpool) had been absent from the top tier for some time. Both trends are encouraging for Swansea – who last played in the old first division almost 30 years ago – and the latter is good news for Cardiff: it’s been almost 50 years since they were relegated to the old second division.

Reading can take heart from the fact that if they reach the final they’re far more likely to win promotion: fifth placed teams have provided half of the finalists in the last decade, with Burnley (2008/9), Wolves (2002/3) and Birmingham City (2001/2) progressing to the Premier League. It’s a similar story with sixth placed clubs – three of the last four clubs that qualified for the final won it - and even better news for Forest and Reading is that since 2000/01 the clubs finish fifth and six have won more finals since the team finishing third.

It’s easy for fans of the other Championship to look at the playoffs and either wonder about what might have been or could be next season, but for the fans of the teams that have reached the post season it’s torture. In some respects it may be better to be overwhelmed in the first round: having had recent experience of the highs and lows of the playoffs, the worst thing that can happen is an unexpected away win, a home win that only materialises in extra time and then having your hopes crushed at Wembley.

Rather than dwelling on the past, let’s take a look at the first legs of the semi finals. This evening Nottingham Forest host Swansea (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) and it looks as if Forest could have a slim advantages. Swansea’s away form this season has declined slightly from 2009/10 and the Swans have only won two of their last ten games at the City Ground, losing 3-1 to Forest at the end of September. On the other hand, Billy Davies’ side have only lost twice at home in the Championship this season: the key statistic in this game might be that Swansea have conceded a goal in 16 of their 23 away games this season. Although we’re probably not likely to see a goal fest at the City Ground there a couple of unlikely scorelines: 0-0 and a repeat of the game in the old second division in September 1952, which Forest won 6-4!

Cardiff’s trip to Reading  on Friday evening (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm) looks as if it will be a much more difficult game to predict, especially as both sides actually performed at a higher level this season than they did in 2009/10. Although the Bluebirds have only won once in their last five trips to Berkshire, Reading haven’t beaten Cardiff at the Madjewski since January 2006 and both league games were drawn this season. Once again, a goalless draw looks unlikely, especially as Shane Long andJay Bothroyd have been banging the goals in for both clubs this season.

Finally, congratulations to Southampton for being promoted to the Championship after finishing runners up to Brighton in League 1. The Saints return to second tier football after two seasons and will no doubt be hoping to ‘do a Norwich’ next season.

No doubt about the story of the week: having been thoroughly beaten by Norwich in the ‘Old Farm’ derby on Sunday lunchtime – the game was effectively over after Damien Delaney’s first half sending off – Ipswich reached the semi finals of the Carling Cup with 1-0 victory over WBA on Wednesday evening.

The Tractor Boys were on a four game losing streak going into the game against the Baggies but a Grant Leadbitter penalty twenty minutes from time saw them reach the semi finals for the first time in a decade – although Ipswich were a Premiership side at the time, they were knocked out by eventual runners up Birmingham City, who were playing in the Championship that season! Roy Keane’s side will face Arsenal in the two-legged semi final, first leg at Portman Road in mid January.

Back to a full programme on Saturday: Ipswich play their third televised game in a week when Swansea visit at lunchtime (12:45pm Sky Sports 2). Despite taking an early lead courtesy of a Craig Beattie goal, the Swans lost a golden opportunity to move into second place after losing at home to Portsmouth on Friday night: QPR moved five points clear at the top of the table after beating Cardiff the following day.

It’s a bit early to start using clichés such as ‘if the season ended today’, but it’s beginning to look as if QPR are safe bet for the playoffs at the very least: unless Darren Ferguson can make some magic happen at Deepdale, Preston look as if they are already in a relegation battle. The competitive nature of the Championship means that everything else is still pretty much up for grabs.

There were three games scheduled this weekend where clubs in the top six were supposed to play teams in the bottom six: Preston travel to Cardiff, but the Bluebirds have lost three of their last five games and will be looking for a morale boosting victory against the current basement dwellers.

If it’s not postponed, arguably the most interesting one of these games is Coventry v Middlesbrough: it’s still something of a surprise to see Coventry in the playoff spots and Middlesbrough in the bottom three, but the Sky Blues took full advantage of Scunthorpe’s lamentable home record last week and – not for the first time this season – Boro had to come from behind twice to earn a point at home to Hull. It was supposed to be the Tigers turn to try to beat QPR this week but that game – along with three others – has been postponed due to the atrocious weather conditions affecting most of Britain.

Game of the week is Derby against Norwich: both clubs are currently in the playoff places and only goal difference separates them. Despite a wobbly start at Pride Park, the Rams have won six consecutive home games but Norwich have kept pace with the other clubs in the top half a dozen despite not having won an away game since the beginning of October.

After Luke Moore had given his side the lead, two goals in the last ten minutes at Turf Moor last weekend meant Derby had a pointless afternoon at Burnley and – as mentioned earlier – Norwich beat Ipswich 4-1 for the Canaries first win in six games and their biggest win over their local rivals since March 1995.

Last game on Saturday is the teatime clash between Millwall and Scunthorpe (5:20pm, Sky Sports 2),  a repeat of the memorable League 1 playoff final from 2009. The Lions have only won once in their last five games, but the trip to south London further evidence of Scunthorpe’s schizophrenic performance away from home: the Iron have won on their last four trips to the New Den!

Apart from Hull v QPR, as of late Friday morning there were four confirmed postponements this weekend:

•    Doncaster v Barnsley
•    Nottingham Forest v Bristol City
•    Portsmouth v Burnley
•    Sheffield United v Reading

Needless to say, if you’re thinking of going to any of the remaining games it’s always worth checking  to see if your game is on before you leave.

The slim chance of a club from outside the top tier of English football winning the FA Cup for the first time since 1980 were reduced even further following the draw for the 3^rd Round on Sunday evening. Twelve Championship sides were drawn against Premiership opposition; two ties are between Championship sides, leaving only seven clubs with games against opposition from the lower divisions.

Arguably the best chance of a third round upset from a Championship point of view is QPR’s trip to Blackburn – if Rangers can maintain their Championship form then at the very least they should be able to force a replay, although presumably Neil Warnock’s priority will be promotion rather than cup glory. West Ham may not be looking forward to a visit from Barnsley: the Tykes don’t have a particularly good away record in the league but knocked Chelsea out of the competition a couple of seasons ago. At the other end of the scale, although there’ll be plenty of media attention at the Walker’s Stadium for Leicester’s game against Manchester City, Sven-Goran Eriksson will probably realise that his new side may have to concentrate on the league rather than look forward to the fourth round. Although Scunthorpe will enjoy a big crowd when Everton visit, the Iron’s home form in the Championship has been very poor so far.

The all Championship games could provide a distraction for two of the current bottom three. Crystal Palace have a good record at Coventry and have already beaten the Sky Blues this season: despite being three points adrift at the bottom of the table after this weekend’s games, Preston host Nottingham Forest at Deepdale.

On paper Swansea, Watford, Burnley and Norwich look as if they may have the best chances of progressing to the fourth round: Colchester United are currently just outside the playoff positions in League 1 but at time of writing have only lost once away from home and might fancy their chances at the Liberty Stadium. The Hornets will have to wait for a replay between Hartlepool and Yeovil before knowing their opponents but Burnley will need to be at their best when Port Vale come to Turf Moor – the Valiants are currently top of League 2 and have a very impressive away record. Norwich also need to wait for a replay, but should be able to get past either Droylsden or Leyton Orient.

If you’re looking for a possible shock involving a Championship team, Middlesbrough’s trip to Burton Albion might be the tie worth looking at, but if Brighton beat FC United of Manchester, they would ensure a tasty looking South Coast Derby with Portsmouth that – given Brighton’s position in League 1 – could be a Championship game next season.

Ipswich – away at Chelsea – probably won’t be able to repeat their performance in the Carling Cup. Wednesday night’s quarter final against West Bromwich Albion is the first time the Tractor Boys have played top tier opposition in this season’s competition – and having lost 4-1 at Norwich the day after the Baggies won 4-1 at Everton, it looks as if the semi finalists will all come from the Premiership.

“He sought no compensation and walked away from the club with empty hands and it’s a measure of the man.” Gibson told the BBC.  But Sky Sports News spun a different story.  According to their report, Strachan tore up his contract before Gibson accepted his resignation.  This isn’t the first time that I have heard Sky put a different slant on a football news story. Either way Gordon Strachan has left the club in 20th place in the nPower Championship, their lowest position for the past 20 years.

As part of my annual pre-season accumulator bet, I had Middlesboro to win the Championship.  Now they are struggling to avoid relegation to League One.

Strachan’s departure comes less than three months after Steve Coppell’s resignation at Bristol City.  Both teams had been tipped to do well this season, but with hindsight maybe they should have considered both managers had previously walked away from football management and surprised many with their return.

If I were to consider Strachan’s replacement at the Riverside, I would not hesitate to place a free bet on former Middlesboro player Tony Mowbray, the man who replaced Gordon Strachan at Celtic.

Since replacing Gareth Southgate in October 2009, Strachan only won 13 of his 46 games in charge.  The final straw was a 2-1 home defeat to Leeds United last Saturday.  Ironically, as the sections of the Middlesbrough crowd were hurling abuse at Strachan, the travelling Leeds fans were singing his praise.  Strachan acknowledged the Leeds support but I wonder if he knew before the game that this would be his last.

Though Tony Mowbray had a torrid time managing Celtic, he had previously taken West Brom into the Premier League as runaway champions of the Championship whilst playing exciting attacking football. Mowbray had a successful playing career with Middlesboro scoring 25 goals in 348 appearances between 1982 and 1991 before moving to Celtic and then Ipswich Town.

Chairman Steve Gibson said yesterday, following Strachan’s departure that Middlesboro had to get the next appointment right. And though Middlesboro are currently hovering just above the relegation zone, they are only seven points adrift of the play-off places.  Remember when Crystal Palace appointed Iain Dowie in December of 2003 and he took them from 19th position to win promotion to the Premiership?

Many top flight football clubs are faced with the prospect of being earmarked for relegation during the festive period. With the Premiership tables being crammed full of football clubs with wealthy backers, it seems somewhat a dreadful situation for them to know to have spent millions on players and managers only to see results fall flat. Ultimately relegation looms. We can just look at Newcastle United for such a classic example last season. Newcastle was a sad story of mismanagement which actually started off as being quite promising. A rich multi-millionaire in Mike Ashley with a long standing clothing business bought the club in 2006 but where things turned sour was the continuation of the infamous revolving door policy for managers which led to all kinds of instability in the dressing room. Players lost interest and the club’s results slid until they were demoted in 2009 to the Championship via a lack lustre performance against Aston Villa – a match they had needed to win.

A club like Newcastle United, who enjoyed 16 years of the premiership football and they have begun their Championship campaign with gusto, much to the surprise of sports pundits. Some football bookmakers on the online betting circuit had faith in seeing the Toon promoted with odds of 15/8 back in August 09. Not bad considering that Newcastle United had just dumped its talisman, Alan Shearer, in favour of the untested Chris Hughton as manager at the time. However, the last thing a club would want to know is the betting odds; the first priority for any ex-Premiership club was to get rid of the excesses and there usually are plenty of them in player wages.

Players who expressed no desire to play on were quickly shown the door. In the case of Newcastle, those players were Damien Duff (undisclosed), Obafemi Martins (£9m) and Shay Given (£6m). Obviously, the sale of high profile players would help cushion some of the blow of reduced income from TV and sponsorship deals. That coupled with a parachute payment which totalled around £12m for dropping a league down.

Compare this to being in the Premiership, where a club get £38m just for being in that league and that’s discounting other lucrative deals on top. Ticket prices are normally affected as well with 8-10% price reductions to try and entice disgruntled fans back into stadiums as well as keeping those all important season ticket holders. Right now, Newcastle can comfortably fill around 42-49,000 spectators for a home match which is nothing to be sniffed at. Newcastle United has always been credited for having a large hardcore fan-base and this season so far has proved nothing less.

Both West Brom and Newcastle have adapted well to life in the Championship whilst Middlesbrough have been the surprise strugglers despite the help of the newly recruited, Gordon Strachan. Newcastle had to do much more to bolster its chances for promotion at the start. Much to their credit, there work has so far paid dividends, with a club managing to keep a lot of its past season’s players who have so far proved that a class above the rest in this league.

A higher wage bill will probably be the price to pay for returning to the Premiership.  Some may argue that playing in the Championship has done Newcastle more good then if they experienced another hapless season in the Premiership. Just look at them now as they have got rid of some deadwood and now play with certain ambition in them that has led to back-to-back wins – a feat they could not achieve in the past few years in the top flight league.

The Premiership 2009-2010 season is just as tight at this stage with three out a possible 11 teams trying to avoid the drop. Like Newcastle United before them, Portsmouth have been handed the uphill task of trying to regain some kind of form against a dire backdrop of boardroom controversies.

Will they be relegated to the Championship? A betting man will no doubt put money on it.

kevin nolan sends magpies top

Preston will have every right to feel hard done by following last night’s Championship game at home to Newcastle, the hosts produced the better football throughout the game but succumbed to a Kevin Nolan goal in the 74th minute that saw all three points go to the Magpies.

Newcastle are now two points clear at the top of the table, ahead of West Bromwich Albion and six clear of third placed Leicester City, and manager Chris Hughton will no doubt claim, Alan Hansen style, that playing badly and winning is the sign of a true championship contending team.

Preston had made the better chances during a fairly drab affair at Deepdale with Neil Mellor forcing good saves from Steve Harper on two occasions and firing wide on another attempt when he was clear on goal. Michael Tonge making his first appearance since joining Preston on a loan deal, also made an impact and should have been rewarded following a long range effort that shaved the crossbar.

But it was Kevin Nolan’s eighth goal of the season that secured the points for Newcastle, pleasing Hughton but leaving Preston manager Alan Irvine ruing his teams misfortune, he said after the game;

“I don’t think we should have lost the game, certainly. I thought that we matched Newcastle for many parts of the game. I felt as if we had some good chances to score ourselves. But we didn’t take our chances and Kevin Nolan finished his chance, which was maybe not even that much of a chance, very well.”

Preston are currently in 12th place in the Championship with 24 points, one point behind Middlesbrough and only three points off the play off positions with a long way to go in the season.

Newcastle were easy winners against a Peterborough side who are struggling for form and find themselves unceremoniously dumped at the bottom of the table, thanks to Roy Keane’s Ipswich picking up a point from the 1-1 draw with Reading.

West Brom who faced a recent dip in fortune found their way back to winning ways at Leicester, who despite the 2-1 loss remain in the dogfight for promotion play off places in sixth. Albion are clinging to Newcastle’s shirt tails in second place, two points behind the Magpies.

The game of the weekend in the Championship, for me anyway, was the clash between Welsh clubs Swansea and Cardiff. Cardiff have been scoring goals for fun as Ron Atkinson might say and were favourites going into the tie. Swansea have been doing pretty well themselves following the adjustments at the club following the departure of Roberto Martinez.

New manager Paulo Sousa has instilled a winning mentality into the Swans and before Saturday’s derby they were unbeaten in nine games, having conceded only ten goals and five points adrift of Cardiff but heading in the right direction.

Cardiff manager Dave Jones on the other hand has a team that had scored 31 goals, the division’s top scorers, and had just picked up the Manager of the Month award for guiding the team to third in the Championship.

On the day it was Swansea who came out on top in an enthralling encounter which they won 3-2, with two goal Darren Prately the player of the match.  It is hard to argue with the result, Swansea just having that extra edge throughout an excellent and exciting game, for a neutral.

Elsewhere, Middlesbrough continue their free fall from the top of the league, even Gordon Strachan needs time it seems, Crystal Palace taking three points from them with a 1-0 win.

As ever in the Championship, at least half of the table are within early sight of the automatic and promotion play off places, leaving the other half desperately trying to accumulate enough points not to be dragged into a relegation place.

Barnsley

It is the second defeat on the trot in the Championship and third in a week including the Carling Cup loss at Arsenal for the Baggies and has put a temporary dent in their attempt at marching straight back to the Premiership.

Barnsley, who are at the other end of the Championship table, were much the better team and deserved the win with a performance that belies their position in the league.

Michael Chopra scored four in Cardiff’s mauling of Derby County as the Welsh team found their early season form and thrashed Nigel Clough’s side 6-1.

Promotion hopefuls Middlesbrough and Preston were both beaten, the latter by lowly strugglers Reading who won away 1-2 and lifted themselves up the table but will need to build on this result to avoid a relegation battle later in the season.

Gareth Southgate was booed by the home crowd following the 0-1 defeat by Leicester who are now just one point behind Middlesbrough after an indifferent start to the campaign.

Roy Keane’s Ipswich were robbed yet again as Sheffield United scored an equalising goal in injury time to make the score 3-3. Ipswich had led 3-1 and will be disappointed at letting the game slip away, although one point is better than none.

Ipswich Town’s Simon Clegg was quick to dispel any rumours that Keane’s time at the club was coming to an end by issuing a statement to say there is no pressure on the Irishman.

Coventry staged a late comeback to take all the points from their visit to Watford, trailing 2-1 the Sky Blues scored twice in the last ten minutes or so to seal the win 2-3.

Bristol City beat Blackpool 2-0 who are now both on 16 points just outside the play off places which is becoming very congested with five teams on the same points.

Crystal Palace were held to a 0-0 against visitors Sheffield Wednesday, the same result as at Doncaster who entertained Swansea. The bottom of the table clash between Darren Ferguson’s Peterborough and Plymouth was won by the south west team 1-2, their first win of the season.

Newcastle have the chance to stretch their lead to five points at the top of the league when they take on QPR tonight, while Nottingham Forest will host Scunthorpe in the other game.

Football betting tends to peak at this time of year too, as football fans attempt to forecast what is going to happen over the next 9 months.

As far as this season’s Championship goes, I really can’t see there being clear favourites for promotion to the Premier League.

Bookmakers have made Newcastle United favourites to bounce straight back to the Premiership but even with a convincing display against Reading at the weekend, I still don’t fancy them for automatic promotion all the time there is board room and ownership turmoil at St James Park.

I believe Sheffield United and Cardiff City will kick on from last season.  But what effect will Roy Keane have on Ipswich Town’s chances to return to the top league in English football nad likewise, Nigel Clough at Derby County?

Of the three teams relegated from the Premier League last season, I can only really see West Bromich Albion as possible champions, even with new manager Roberto Di Matteo.  Until Mike Ashley sells Newcastle I think they will be destined to lose their best players and remain a Championship side.  While at Middlesbrough, I’d like to see Gareth Southgate do well but I really don’t think they will be equipped for life in the Championship this season, and will have to accommodate a different style of play.

As previously mentioned on this blog, I think Leicester City had such a good season winning promotion from League One that they could quite easily win two promotions on the bounce.

The internet is full of good quality websites offering football news services to keep fans buzzing throughout the season.  But as football fans, we all know only too well that there can only be one winner at the end of the season.