Buzzin Championship Football

Cardiff City lost last Sunday’s Carling Cup Final but – as I mentioned last week – it was a close game. The Bluebirds took the lead with a goal from Joe Mason and then Ben Turner managed to force home a dramatic short range equaliser with two minutes left in injury time. Unfortunately Anthony Gerrard missed the crucial penalty and that was that for 2011/12.

The Welsh side won a lot of new friends on Sunday with their performance (especially amongst the pundits who only ever seem to watch Championship teams when they play Premier League opposition) but the real challenge facing Malky Mackay and his team is winning promotion. In the eight seasons since their return to second tier football, the Bluebirds have only finished outside the top half of the table three times. We have an immediate opportunity to see how they react to their defeat but I’ll come to that later.

In the league, last weekend didn’t see much change at the top: Southampton won 3-0 at Vicarage Road and victory saw them move back to pole position. Despite being held at home by Crystal Palace, West Ham are a point behind the Saints with a game in hand but the key stat to keep an eye on as the season begins to reach a climax is Southampton’s vastly superior goal average.

In the battle for the playoff spots goals from Noel Hunt and Ian Harte at Middlesbrough propelled Reading into third place and Brian McDermott’s decision to sign a new contract strongly implies that he’s committed to winning promotion with the Berkshire club, who have now kept five consecutive clean sheets. Arguably the biggest surprise last weekend was Birmingham City losing their unbeaten home record to Nottingham Forest, for whom Dexter Blackstock scored twice. Forest aren’t exactly safe yet but may have timed their escape perfectly.

If anything, the situation at the bottom of the table has become even more desperate. As well as Forest’s win at St Andrews, Millwall fully deserved their victory at Burnley. If Coventry can pull off a shock win at Leicester and Bristol City lose at Ipswich, the Sky Blues will be out of the bottom three since the end of October. Manager Andy Thorn won’t be at the King Power Stadium tomorrow: he was taken to hospital yesterday after falling ill during training but his illness does not seem to be serious.

The other issue that could have an impact on the relegation battle are this week’s new revelations about the increasingly desperate situation at Portsmouth. Administrator Trevor Birch has admitted that Pompey may face liquidation before the end of the season: if the club’s record is expunged, the landscape at both ends of the table could change dramatically – but hopefully that’s an issue that I won’t have to write about.

This weekend’s action begins tonight with Blackpool playing Hull at Bloomfield Road (Sky Sports 2, 7:45pm kick off) in a game between two sides who are still in the running for promotion, even though they look more like playoff contenders right now. Hull have the better recent form but I’ve always thought that they don’t have enough firepower to overwhelm their opponents. The Tigers are primarily a defensive team, especially away from home: there hasn’t been more than one goal in a Hull away game since the end of November. Blackpool have only lost twice in their last ten home games against Hull and their recent battering by West Ham was their first home defeat since October.

The highlight of tomorrow’s games of the week is Reading’s trip to Millwall: the hosts did themselves a favour last week when Andy Keogh, Josh Wright and Harry Kane scored at Burnley. The Lions’ problem at the moment is that they’ve been horrible at home: since beating Portsmouth on Boxing Day they’ve lost four of their five league games at the New Den and as I mentioned above, Reading are in very good form at the moment. In addition to their defensive prowess, the Royals have won their last three road trips and have also won three of the last five games between the sides in East London.

After the 3:00pm kick offs have finished, Leeds v Southampton (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm) looks as if it could be worth watching – it’s exactly the sort of game that Neil Warnock relishes. Leeds have had the better of recent meetings between these two at Elland Road (only two defeats in the last ten) but only managed to beat Doncaster last time out thanks to a late goal. The Saints are unbeaten in four away games and have kept clean sheets in three of them.

As I mentioned above, we have an opportunity to see if Cardiff have recovered from their Wembley disappointment when they entertain West Ham on Sunday lunchtime, the only game this weekend between two clubs in the top six and one of the occasional forays the BBC1 makes into broadcasting live football. The Hammers aren’t regular visitors to the Welsh capital – they’ve only played there twice since the turn of the century – and haven’t won in Cardiff since April 1980. It’s also worth mentioning that although we’ve seen a lot of different clubs in the top six recently, Cardiff always seem to have the best head to head record against the other contenders for promotion – last month’s home defeat by Blackpool is their only defeat against another team from the current top six this season – but the Bluebirds always manage to somehow blow it at the worst possible moment.

There’s a full midweek programme next week, but rather than concentrating on individual games I’m going to be taking a slightly different angle: I was surprised to see that the average goals per game this season has plummeted this season – it’s gone largely unnoticed and I’m curious about why it’s happened. Hopefully I’ll be able to provide some answers.

First of all, good luck to Cardiff City in Sunday’s Carling Cup Final against Liverpool. It’s been 11 seasons since a side from outside the top tier reached the final: strangely enough, that was when Birmingham City lost to Liverpool at the Millennium Stadium.

I’ll be taking a look at that game later on – with three of the top six and four of the bottom six in the nPower Championship at home today we might see some changes at the top and bottom of the table. Southampton could go back to the top if West Ham don’t beat Crystal Palace at lunchtime (Sky Sports 2, 12:45pm). It’s unlikely that Palace will win – they’ve only won once at West Ham and that was almost 20 years ago.

After that, it looks like a race for playoff places which will probably last for the rest of the season. Any of the clubs between third and ninth position could move into the playoff berths, but with most teams still having roughly fourteen games to play anything could happen. As I mentioned last week, keep an eye on Leeds now that Neil Warnock has taken over at Elland Road.

At the bottom, Portsmouth are probably lucky that they’ve got a far superior goal difference to Coventry and Doncaster: if they beat Leeds at Fratton Park and Nottingham Forest lose at Birmingham, Michael Appleton’s side will be out of the bottom three. However, it’s beginning to look as if the battle to avoid relegation is going to be a dogfight between the bottom six: Peterborough’s 3-0 win over Bristol City last weekend plus Pompey’s points deduction means there’s a six point gap between the Posh and Millwall that could make all the difference in the run in.

There are two games this afternoon that might give us a long term clues about who is likely to be playing in the Championship rather than the Premier League or League 1 next season – Nottingham Forest had a fine run of six consecutive league wins at St. Andrews that began at Christmas 1983 but they’ve not won there since New Years Day 2001. Birmingham City are the only team left in the Championship that haven’t lost at home: they’ve also beaten Coventry, Millwall and Portsmouth without conceding a goal: so even though Forest seem to have rediscovered the art of goals, they’re going to be up against it.

Middlesbrough v Reading could be a potential playoff final in May but the trip to Teeside isn’t one that the Royals haven’t enjoyed over the years – they’ve won twice in ten games. As you might expect given their positions, in terms of recent form, there’s not much between them but the key aspect of this game that it’s only Reading’s second away game at a club in the current top six and the encounter could tell us a lot about their recovery from the playoff final defeat last May.

The main event on Sunday afternoon is the Carling Cup Final between Cardiff and Liverpool (BBC1, 4:00pm) and sadly it’s unlikely that the Bluebirds will be returning to South Wales with the trophy. In the last twenty years, four second tier sides have reached the final and all lost: to make matters worse, Bolton (1995) and Birmingham (2001) both lost to Liverpool.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom – Cardiff have actually played at Wembley more recently than Liverpool have and although it’s been a while since a club from outside the top tier has won the trophy (Sheffield Wednesday in 1991), it’s not unheard of. Having said that, I think it has the potential to be a close game – possibly just one goal in it – and Liverpool haven’t exactly been consistent away from home since the beginning of the year.

Looking at how both clubs reached the final, it’s striking that Cardiff only had to play one Premier League team on their way to Wembley and that was the understrength Blackburn Rovers side they defeated in the quarter finals. In the earlier rounds, it’s fair to say that Malky McKay wasn’t taking the competition too seriously either – Cardiff needed penalties to beat Oxford and Leicester and extra time to beat Huddersfield and used 24 different players in those three games. In contrast, it’s fair to say that Liverpool did it the hard way – they defeated Stoke, Chelsea and Manchester City away from Anfield – and the final probably represents their best chance of European football next season and their first chance of winning a major domestic trophy since 2006.

It’s only Wednesday and it’s already been another busy week in the Championship – it’s unusual to have games on consecutive days in the middle of the week but with a televised game tomorrow night, it’s worth pausing to catch breath and take a slightly more detailed look at the two big stories that have broken in the last week.

Portsmouth are back in administration and were automatically docked ten points: to make a bad week for the club even worse, Michael Appleton was only able to name three subs for the game against Barnsley during which Dave Kitson was sent off and Pompey lost 2-0.  After last weekend’s results, the South Coast club are now in the bottom three for the first time since the beginning of last season and – along with Doncaster and Coventry – are the bookies favourites to be relegated from the Championship. If Pompey go down, it’ll be the first time in almost three decades that they’ll have competed in the third tier but there are still a lot of points to play for and their fate is by no means guaranteed. The crucial period for the club appears to be just before Easter: home games against Bristol City and Birmingham City are followed by a trip to Coventry, but Portsmouth’s fate may well be decided by the outcome of the last game of the season – when they’re away at fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest.

Neil Warnock’s return to management with Leeds United is almost like welcoming back an old friend – there were rumours last summer that his days at QPR were numbered and that his old club’s less than convincing form since they’ve been promoted made the decision to get rid of him easier. As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Leeds have been underwhelming recently and even though Warnock wasn’t technically in charge at Elland Road last weekend, he spoke to the players before the game and at half time. At least that’s what was reported: at half time Leeds were two goals behind to Doncaster Rovers, so I can’t imagine Warnock gently encouraged his new team at the break. Whatever he said, it appeared to work as Leeds won 3-2: Warnock’s main task appears to be to turn Elland Road into the fortress it has been over the past few seasons – Leeds have already lost more home games this season than they did in 2010/11 and have failed to beat any of the current top six sides at Elland Road.

Last weekend’s results in the FA Cup were probably better than I’d anticipated: Birmingham City took the lead at Chelsea and will relish the replay at St Andrew’s on 6th March, while Leicester City won at Norwich City to ensure that there will be at least one Championship club in the quarter finals – if Birmingham can beat Chelsea, they’ll entertain Leicester. That was as good as it got: Millwall and Blackpool both lost, while Brighton were hammered at Anfield on Sunday afternoon and made a valuable contribution to pub quizzes by scoring three own goals – Liam Bridcutt ’scored’ twice for Liverpool with Lewis Dunk adding the third.

Southampton briefly went back to the top of the table following their 4-0 win over Derby on Saturday, but West Ham overtook them following their 4-1 win at Blackpool last night. Unbelievably, the Hammers went down to ten men for the third consecutive game although this time they made it to the second half before Robert Green was dismissed for a professional foul on Robert Bednar: Henri Lansbury took over in goal and kept a clean sheet.

It’s a familiar story going into this weekend’s games: West Ham and Southampton can’t be overtaken but the playoff situation is very fluid indeed and will be complicated by Cardiff’s trip to Wembley for the Carling Cup final on Sunday. Hull play Brighton this evening and if the Tigers win by one goal or more they’ll move into the top six at the expense of Middlesbrough: Nick Barmby’s side don’t have a game this weekend as they were originally scheduled to play Cardiff – the game has now been re-scheduled for the middle of next month.

At the bottom, Nottingham Forest beat Coventry 2-0 last weekend and are now out of the bottom three for the first time since the end of November, but have a tricky looking trip to Birmingham on Saturday. Both Portsmouth and Coventry are at home this weekend and could potentially move out of the relegation spots but I’ll take a closer look at the situation on Friday.

Unusually, the ‘weekend’ starts tomorrow evening when Leicester visit Derby (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1) – I’ve got no idea why the game has been switched to Thursday, presumably it’s to attract casual TV viewers away from the more exotic delights of the Europa League – and both teams need a win to keep in touch with the playoff contenders. Derby were beaten by Reading in their last game at Pride Park, but that was their first home defeat in five games and Nigel Clough’s side is the most improved side at home in the Championship this season: Leicester’s recent away form has been patchy (three wins in their last ten) but is an improvement on last season – it’s their form at the King Power Stadium that has prevented them from living up to their billing as pre-season favourites.

I’ll be back on Friday (promise!) when I’ll be taking an in depth look at the Carling Cup Final between Cardiff City and Liverpool as well as the remaining league games – which begin on Saturday lunchtime when Crystal Palace travel to the Boleyn Ground to play West Ham.

Portsmouth went into administration for the second time on Friday morning, although at time of writing there had been no confirmation of the widely expected points deduction. Rather than making any comment about the situation right now, I’m tempted to leave it until next week when the situation should be clearer.

(Update: the ten point deduction was applied on Friday night – Portsmouth are now fourth from bottom and are ahead of Coventry City on goal difference.)

(Update 2: Neil Warnock returned to the Championship on Saturday morning, when he was named as the new manager of Leeds United.)

The headlines from Valentine’s Day: Hull still haven’t won at Birmingham…Blackpool won 3-1 at Doncaster…and West Ham’s disciplinary problems continued as Matt Taylor was sent off in the 1-1 draw with Southampton, even though his push on Billy Sharp looked a bit like something you might see in the WWE.

With West Ham not in action until Tuesday night, Southampton only need a point at home to Derby tomorrow to go back to the top of nPower Championship. Cardiff also have a chance to make up some ground, if they can avoid losing at Ipswich – which is something they’ve not managed to do in five of their last ten trips to Portman Road.

With five teams left in the FA Cup, there are only eight games this weekend and they start this evening when Reading entertain Burnley (Sky Sports 2, 8:00pm) in a game between two sides that are in the mix for the playoffs. A single goal from The Royals’ Jem Karacan (in the ninth minute of injury time!) was enough to separate the sides in October and since then both sides have been in good form. Burnley’s defeat at Southampton last weekend was only their second in the last ten games – which is the same number that Reading have lost in the same period.

The important games this weekend are at the bottom of the table and so game of the week is the Midlands derby between Coventry and Nottingham Forest at the City Ground, which is a genuine relegation six pointer. Forest slipped into the relegation places at the end of November, while Coventry haven’t been outside the bottom three since the Autumn: neither of them have reached the giddy heights of mid table in 2011/12.

It’s not too hard to see what’s gone wrong with both of these clubs this season – almost exactly a year ago, Billy Davies was manager, Forest were fourth in the table and were the only club in the nPower Championship that hadn’t lost at home. Forest eventually only lost two home league games last season, but consecutive play off semi final defeats and the worst sort of managerial instability have obviously taken their toll. Between the end of November and last weekend they’d not scored in six consecutive home games and had lost all six. Garath McCleary broke that duck last weekend when he opened the scoring against Watford, but even then Forest had to make do with a point.

Coventry’s decline began last season: a spell of 17 games last season in which the Sky Blues only won once seems to have heralded this season’s catastrophic form: they’ve not won a game on the road since beating Portsmouth in April and this season their away form is the worst in the Championship. Selling Lukas Jutkiewicz to Middlesbrough looked like one of the last nails in the coffin, but ironically, it’s Portsmouth’s potential points deduction that may hand Coventry a lifeline, although there are some signs of life: two Gary McSheffery penalties earned Coventry all three points against Leeds on Tuesday night.

A win is arguably more important for Forest – three points would take them above Coventry and possibly Portsmouth if the points deduction is applied this weekend – but recent games between these two have been close and a draw is the result no-one wants. It’s also worth re-emphasizing that the Sky Blues haven’t won away from home this season and this could be their best chance of ending that streak.

Away from the battle to stay in the Championship, it’s hard to get any enthusiasm going about the FA Cup. With four of the remaining five Championship teams away to Premier League opposition, it looks as if the best hope for the second tier is Millwall, who play Bolton at The New Den: although they’ve not played each other since March 1995, the Premier League side have only won once in their last ten trips to South London. The last time Bolton travelled to Millwall for an FA Cup tie was in February 1915: two days before, the German government had declared a submarine blockade of Great Britain.

The televised FA Cup games involving Championship sides are both on ESPN: Birmingham’s trip to Chelsea is live on Saturday lunchtime, while 24 hours later Brighton’s game at Anfield that’s live. It’s worth pointing out that the Blues have lost all but two of their last ten games at Stamford Bridge and haven’t beaten Chelsea since September 1979: Brighton’s away record at Liverpool isn’t that much better, although the last time the Seagulls travelled to Anfield for an FA Cup game they drew 2-2 before losing the replay by the odd goal in five.

There are a couple of catch up games during the week and I’ll be back on Tuesday with a look at how this weekend played out and whether or not there’s been any update on the situation at Fratton Park.

The big news in the nPower Championship this week is that for the second time in the last three seasons it looks as if Portsmouth will have to go into administration. Although it wasn’t abundantly clear how – or even if – the fraud charges against current owner Vladimir Antonov would affect the future of the football club, Portsmouth have been unable to pay both the taxman or their playing staff.

On the field, after approximately one week where everyone had played the same number of games, the recent postponements have ruined the symmetry of the nPower Championship. Three games were called off last weekend, but Middlesbrough fans made the trip down to Ipswich on the understanding that the game was going ahead, only for the pitch to become unplayable once it was exposed to the elements. Referee Dean Whitestone abandoned the game with about ten minutes left in the first half with the score at 0-0.

Southampton made the most of West Ham’s unexpected week off (the Hammers’ game at Peterborough was amongst those postponed) by beating Burnley at St Mary’s to move into second place. The Saints have now played one more game than three of their nearest rivals, which might be a disadvantage as the season plays out. Birmingham’s game at Barnsley was postponed while Cardiff lost at Leicester, which means that the top two will stay as they are regardless of this evening’s results.

There were no changes at the bottom but there could be big changes in the next week. Although there seems to be confusion about how many points Portsmouth will forfeit and when that punishment will applied, it looks as if the relegation battle may very go down to the wire.

You can tell we’re getting to the end of the season as there are only three full Tuesday night programmes left – so whichever genius programmed fixtures for Valentine’s Day seems to have made up for it by ensuring that there are three big games. Birmingham entertain Hull and the hosts haven’t lost at home this season – in fact the Blues have not lost a league game at St Andrew’s since May – while this is only Tigers second away game against a side in the current top six this season. It’s a bit early to start talking in terms of ‘run ins’ but there’s a real possibility that the Blues could go undefeated at home this season: although they’ve still got to play Middlesbrough, Cardiff & Reading their other remaining home games don’t look that tricky. Tonight’s fascinating stat: Hull have have only won once at St Andrews since the end of the First World War.

Doncaster’s game against Blackpool could be much closer than people think, depending on what kind of side Ian Holloway decides to select. The Tangerines are playing at Everton in the FA Cup on Saturday but they can’t really afford to take risks in the league at this stage. Rovers are on seven game undefeated streak at the Keepmoat Stadium, have only lost one home game to a side in the top six this season and beat Southampton in December.

The big game tonight is West Ham v Southampton. Looking at games between the top six sides, Saints have the best record but that could well because they’ve already played the other five sides at St Mary’s: they’ve been less successful on their travels, losing to Cardiff in September and drawing with Birmingham ten days ago. Historically draws between these two at the Boleyn Ground are few and far between (the last one was in February 1983) but with Southampton having kept consecutive clean sheets on the road and West Ham’s recent habit of grinding out close wins at home it’s entirely within reason that this game could finish all square.

I’ll be back on Friday to look at the games in both the League and FA Cup this weekend, along with any updates on Portsmouth’s financial situation.