A Busy Weekend For Huddersfield

Back to the league after last week’s disastrous showing in the FA Cup.

As I’ve got another family commitment this weekend, I’ve only got time for a short post – but the main issue is that Huddersfield have got to play twice in four days and both of their games are against promotion rivals.

Huddersfield v Brighton (this evening, 7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Town have a couple of games in hand over most of the other promotion contenders – except Brighton, who have earned 11 points over the same number of matches as the Terriers. Although the hosts have only lost twice at home this season, their next three scheduled games at the John Smith’s Stadium are against teams above them, starting with this one. Brighton shouldn’t expect to have it their own way this evening: they’ve only recorded three wins at Huddersfield in the last sixteen years and lost 7-1 in August 2009.

Saturday’s games include two that will have an impact at both ends of the table:

Newcastle v Derby

It’ll be interesting to see how Newcastle do after Ciaran Clarke’s late own goal earned QPR a share of the points at St. James’ Park last night. The Toon are still firm favourites to go up, but have only won half of their last six home matches. Last weekend’s win at Ipswich was Derby’s first away victory since mid-December: the Rams have only won one of their last 13 games at Newcastle.

Bristol City v Rotherham

Having seemingly steadied the ship against Sheffield Wednesday earlier this week, the hosts go into this one look for their first home win since the start of December. Rotherham have lost all but one of their away games this season and haven’t scored on the road since Joe Newell gave the Millers the lead at Fulham in mid-December.

Then on Sunday, it’s time for Huddersfield to entertain Leeds. Pontus Jansson’s dramatic late winner at Blackburn last night gave United their first away win sin Boxing Day and this season they’ve won both of the Yorkshire derbies where they’ve been the visitors. Leeds have only three of their last ten visits to Huddersfield for league games, but Huddersfield have only won once in the last five meetings.

Other televised games:

Wigan v Sheffield Wednesday (tomorrow, 7:45pm, Sky Sports Mix), Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa (Saturday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports Mix)

I’ll be back next week with a longer post, enjoy the weekend. I’m going to be in Stevenage for my sister in law’s 40th…

Game of the Week: Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday

I’ve long been a believer that although the Championship is capable of producing some surprising results in individual games, overall the table doesn’t lie – and despite defeats for Brighton at Preston and Norwich at Rotherham, we go into this weekend with the situation at the top more or less as it was.

Seeing as though Brighton won’t lose that many games this season and Preston did so well against Arsenal in the FA Cup, here’s the highlights – with commentary for a change – from last weekend’s game at Deepdale:

Last week’s game of the week finished in a  2-0 win for Sheffield Wednesday, although the score was 1-0 when Huddersfield‘s Jack Payne was dismissed for a rash challenge on Sam Hutchinson with twenty minutes left…which brings me nicely round to the game of the week: remarkably, it’s being televised.

Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday (this evening, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1 HD)

Last week’s defeat at Preston was the first away reverse for Chris Houghton’s side since losing at Newcastle at the end of August, but the Seagulls haven’t lost at the Amex since September, have kept clean sheets in eight of their twelve games this season and – according to the bookies – are nailed on for automatic promotion. The only apparent weaknesses in their home form is that they need to score more goals in the first half of their games and seem to be vulnerable defensively in the first 30 minutes.

Wednesday are a little bit easier to analyse. Despite winning without conceding a goal at both Newcastle and Huddersfield this season, they’ve struggled defensively against other sides currently in the top half of the table and they’ve average just less than one goal per game on the road, having only scored twice in one of their games away from Hillsborough this season. To put that into perspective, four of the current bottom six have scored more away goals than Wednesday have, which is one of the reasons that although they’re one of the better teams in the Championship, they aren’t one of the best.

Wednesday’s last win at Brighton was in the first game of the 2014/15 season, when Albion were ‘managed’ by Sami Hyppia and only finished six points clear of the relegation zone. This season, exactly half of the sixteen games between the current top six have ended in home wins and although I’m not expecting lots of goals later on, I’d be surprised if Brighton lost at home – although they are due another reverse at the Amex soon.

Honourable mention:

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City

I am on record as saying that Forest looked like strugglers before the season began and so it’s no surprise to me that they’ve performed exactly as I thought they would, even down to appointing – and then sacking – Phillipe Montanier. Furthermore, the unsuccessful takeover of the club seems to have been the last straw with the fans, who were also less than delighted when news broke that Henri Lansbury will probably be leaving. His move to Aston Villa hadn’t been confirmed when I posted this, but I expect it will have been when you read this.

Bristol City have been in free fall since October, having lost twelve of their last fifteen games – which includes blowing leads in four of those matches. So far this season several other clubs in the Football League have sacked managers that haven’t done as badly as Lee Johnson recently, so there must be something about him that the City board sees that the rest of us don’t.

Head to head: Forest have only lost two of their last ten home games in the league against City, but those defeats have come in the last three meetings – and the visitors haven’t lost to a team below them this season.

Televised games: QPR v Fulham (Saturday, 12:30pm) which confirms my theory that Sky Sports are incredibly lazy: the production team will be in the pub by 3:00pm. However Barnsley v Leeds (Saturday 5:30pm) will be an absolute cracker.

Back to the FA Cup again next week, so I’ll see you then.

Game of the Week: Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield

Before I go any further, in case you haven’t heard, former Aston Villa, Lincoln City, Watford, Wolves and England manager Graham Taylor died today.

News of Mr Taylor’s death emerged as I was finishing this post, which is an early one as Reading are entertaining QPR this evening (8:00pm kick off, Sky Sports 1) although if the last ten meetings between them in Berkshire are anything to go by, the visitors won’t win and there won’t be many goals.

Looking back at Christmas, the following points are worth passing on:

  • Newcastle were in pole position on Boxing Day, but after two defeats in their last three games, Brighton have take over the lead and now have a two point lead at the top. Right now, I can’t see any outside those two for automatic promotion.
  • Reading, Huddersfield and Leeds have all made big improvements since last season whereas Sheffield Wednesday have maintained last season’s level. With three of the four playoff teams coming from Yorkshire, the rest of the season could be intense – starting with this weekend’s game of the week.
  • Rotherham were five points adrift of Wigan on Boxing Day and I think both clubs will continue to struggle. It’s not abundantly clear who else looks likely for the drop though: Blackburn look most likely to drop out of the section at the moment, but both Bristol City and Nottingham Forest are struggling badly at the moment and could end up flirting with disaster.

In managerial news, no-one got the chop over Christmas although Paul Warne still hasn’t been confirmed as manager of Rotherham despite having had a favourable impact on and off the field since he took over from Kenny Jackett on a part time basis.

On to the game of the week:

Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield (3:00pm Saturday)

With the clubs being separated by four points and 30 miles, the twelfth Yorkshire derby of the season should be a cracker.

Having only won two of the five games they’ve played against the teams immediately above them, this isn’t exactly a gimmee for Wednesday. Although they’re currently on a four game unbeaten streak at Hillsborough and haven’t conceded a goal for 278 minutes, Huddersfield haven’t lost on the road since mid-November and have conceded just two goals in their last four aways.

Head to head: the clubs have met eight times in the league at Hillsborough since the turn of the century, but Wednesday have only won two of those games including the last meeting in November 2015. Despite the recent defensive prowess of both teams, there’s a chance that this one could feature some goals, but you’ll have to read to the end of the next paragraph to understand why.

Bonus fun facts: none of the previous Yorkshire derbies this season have ended in a draw and there’s only been one undecided match between the protagonists in the last eight games at Hillsborough – when Jordan Rhodes scored all four goals for Huddersfield in a 4-4 draw just over five years ago. Also, only one of the fifteen games between the current top six has ended in a draw: Reading v Brighton in August.

Honourable Mention:

Burton v Wigan

After a solid start at the Pirelli Stadium, the wheels have come off recently. Burton have lost their last three at home and their lack of a proven goalscorer at this level should be something Nigel Clough addresses during what’s left of the transfer window. Wigan have only lost two of their last ten away games in the division but their home form has been bad enough to keep them in the bottom six for almost the entire season. The only other league meeting between the clubs at Burton took place last April when both sides were pushing for promotion and finished all square.

Other televised games: there are only five points between Leeds and Derby (tomorrow, 7:45pm, Sky Sports 1) so that looks like a decent game to watch. Remarkably, Wolves have never played Aston Villa at Molineux in a second tier game (Saturday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1) but the occasion will be overshadowed by the death of Graham Taylor, who managed both of the clubs during his career and was in charge at Villa Park when Aston Villa last played at this level. RIP.

FA Cup Third Round Preview

Just a quick look this time round as I’ve had some technical issues as well as a hacking cough for most of the last two weeks.

As I’ve been fond of repeating for the last few seasons, we’re lucky if half of the clubs in the Championship qualify for the fourth round and having not had a second tier winner for almost 40 years, there’s no point expecting one in 2016/17.

Championship v Premier League 

Considering that six of the eight ties in this category involve the Championship teams travelling to clubs in the Promised Land, I can’t see much hope for an early upset. Sheffield Wednesday visit Middlesbrough in what could be a very competitive game and the Midlands derby between West Brom and…errr…Derby should be worth keeping an eye on, but does anyone genuinely fancy Burton, Reading or Preston causing upsets?

All Championship

With only four guaranteed places in the next round, there’s a chance that whoever takes their opportunities now may stand a chance of reaching the last sixteen. For that reason, Birmingham v Newcastle is potentially the tie of the round in this category: on the other hand, neither Wigan nor Nottingham Forest will want to hang around in the FA Cup if they’re serious about avoiding the drop.

Championship v League One

In one of those quirks of fate that happens when the draw is made, all four of the ties in this category have the Championship clubs at home. I can’t see Brighton or Huddersfield having much trouble with MK Dons and Port Vale respectively, but there’s a possibility that Bristol City and Rotherham might find Fleetwood or Oxford too much to handle.

There’s only one game where a Championship club takes on one from League 2: Barnsley travel to Blackpool. On paper, both of the ties between sides from the Championship and non-league teams ought to be straightforward for both Brentford and Ipswich, although neither Eastleigh or Lincoln are mugs.

Televised games: Manchester United v Reading (BT Sport 1, 12:30pm tomorrow), Preston v Arsenal (BT Sport 1, 5:30pm tomorrow) and Spurs v Aston Villa (BBC 1, 4:00pm Sunday). The draw for the fourth round will be on Monday, I’ll probably update as the weekend progresses and I’ll be back next week.

Update: Leeds, Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Huddersfield, Blackburn, Wolves, Derby and Wigan all won at the first time of asking over the weekend. Birmingham, Newcastle, Barnsley, Bristol City, Ipswich (against Lincoln!) and Norwich all face replays, so there are currently ten guaranteed places for Championship clubs in the fourth round.

So far the only confirmed fourth round ties involving Championship teams are:

Fulham v Hull, Chelsea v Brentford, Rochdale v Huddersfield, Derby v Leicester and Manchester United v Wigan. If Ipswich win at Lincoln in the replay, they’ll host Brighton in the next round and if Barnsley beat Blackpool in their replay they’ll travel to Blackburn.

I’ll be back on Thursday, in time for the Reading/QPR clash that evening.

Market Reports: December

Before I start on the market reports, last weekend provided some eventful moments, starting with Newcastle losing at Nottingham Forest and culminating in the three red cards at Sheffield Wednesday. If you’ve not already seen the highlights, here they are – although the incident that lead to Jermaine Beckford and Eoin Doyle being sent off for fighting each other isn’t that clear:

In the promotion market, Newcastle’s recent blip has had no impact whatsoever and if the bookies are correct, both they and Brighton are already as good as playing in the Premier League.

Despite beating Brentford 5-0 last weekend, after five consecutive defeats Norwich not only dropped out of the top six but have also drifted back to the price for promotion that they were before the season began. There are a couple of clubs that might be worth investing in now, but there’s a ‘buyer beware’ warning for both of them: last season’s play off final losers Sheffield Wednesday have remained consistently around the 4/1 mark since the start of the season. If Derby continue their revival under Steve McClaren then the 9/2 available now might look generous in a couple of months time, but as we’ve seen in previous seasons, if there’s one club that is almost guaranteed to blow it at completely the wrong time, it’s the Rams. Of the other contenders, Leeds currently look like legitimate dark horses for promotion. Aston Villa still look overrated to me.

The situation hasn’t changed that much at the bottom. Rotherham could lift themselves off the bottom of the table by Boxing Day, but it’s a long shot and I think it’s wise to assume that the Millers have had it. The remaining question is who will join them, but a new team has joined the contest over the last month. QPR have shortened for the drop since the start of last month and it’s not hard to see why: they don’t seem to be any better under Ian Holloway than they were when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was in charge.

As luck would have it, the top current top six are playing each other this weekend:

Only three of the nine games between them so far this season have ended in home wins (Newcastle beat Brighton and Reading): that might not look like good news for the hosts, but neither Leeds nor Sheffield Wednesday are at home this weekend. The Yorkshire duo haven’t won any of the four games in this category that they’ve hosted.

Brighton v Leeds (7:45pm this evening, Sky Sports 1)

Leeds’ last win at Brighton in a League Game was in a League One encounter at the very much unloved Withdean Stadium in November 2009: the visitors last goal at Brighton was was four years ago. Over the past year, Brighton have only lost four home games in the Championship: this might be more competitive than recent encounters, but if Leeds win it’ll be a surprise.

Newcastle v Birmingham

After losing at home to Huddersfield in mid-August, the Toon reeled off five consecutive wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond to last weekend’s defeat at Nottingham Forest. Birmingham’s win at Brentford at the end of last month was their first away victory since mid-September, but their surprise reverse at home to Barnsley last weekend wasn’t ideal preparation for their trip to St. James’ Park – where they haven’t won a league game since August 2003.

Reading v Sheffield Wednesday

Aston Villa are the only club to have won a league game at the Mad House this season, but the Royals have only scored more than two goals at home in one match in 2016/17. Wednesday have only lost three away games this season and haven’t been beaten since the start of November, but since the turn of the century they’ve only won once in Berkshire: in February 2014, Reading played 80 minutes with ten men after Alex Pearce was sent off and Wednesday won 2-0.

There’s a local rivalry theme to the remaining televised games this weekend: Preston entertain Blackburn at tea-time tomorrow (Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm kick off) and on Sunday it’s the East Midlands showdown between Derby and Nottingham Forest (noon kick off, Sky Sports 1). I don’t expect that either manager will lose his job if his team loses, but you never know…

Back on Tuesday for a quick look at the midweek programme, then it’s this year’s Christmas post next Friday.