Barnsley | Buzzin Championship Football

FA Cup 4th Round Preview

This weekend sees the remaining clubs from the Championship take their chances in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup, but with six of the eleven teams that successfully navigated the last round taking on Premier League opposition, it’s possible that interest will be down to a minimum next month.

Before we go any further, there are two Championship clubs playing League One sides, so if you want to read about the games involving Newcastle and Huddersfield you’ll have to visit Buzzin League 1 Football to read the previews. Otherwise I’ll break down the games in the usual format.

Televised games: Derby v Leicester (7:55pm this evening, BBC1), Liverpool v Wolves (12:30 tomorrow, BBC1), Sutton United v Leeds (2:00pm Sunday BT Sport 2), Manchester United v Wigan (4:00pm Sunday BBC1).

Championship v Premier League

Derby and Leicester meet in the FA Cup for the first time in almost 108 years, but despite their poor form in the Premier League Leicester have won eight of the last nine meetings between the clubs. Liverpool last met Wolves in the cup more recently – only 65 years ago – but Wanderers have only recorded one victory in eight games against Liverpool since the turn of the century. Wigan have only beaten Manchester United once in seventeen meetings, although they’ve never been drawn against each other in the FA Cup.

Non-televised games: Burnley v Bristol City, Chelsea v Brentford (both 3pm Saturday)

The theme continues: Bristol City have never played at Turf Moor in a cup tie of any sort. However, Brentford have played at Chelsea comparatively recently: in March 2013 they forced a 2-2 draw at Griffin Park before losing the replay 4-0 at Stamford Bridge.

Which leaves us with one possible surprise in this category – if you could call it that.

Fulham v Hull (Sunday 12:30pm)

The Cottagers have been on a decent run of at home recently (one defeat in eight) but they’ve not won an FA Cup tie in front of their own fans for three years. Having written that, the last time these sides met in the competition was in 1975, when Fulham reached the final after beating Hull in a second replay at Leicester’s old ground, Filbert Street. Could history repeat itself? Both clubs lost this week, but Fulham have had an extra day to recover.

Championship v League Two

Blackburn v Blackpool (tomorrow 3pm)

There have been some signs of life at Ewood Park recently. Rovers haven’t lost at home since before Christmas and are currently only in the bottom three on goal difference. The FA Cup probably isn’t a priority, but putting one over their Lancashire rivals could well be and although Blackpool have already knocked Barnsley out of the competition this season, the Tangerines haven’t beaten Blackburn in any of their three previous meetings in the competition. Last league meeting was a 1-1 draw at Ewood Park two years ago.

Championship v National League

Lincoln v Brighton (tomorrow 3pm)

The Imps dumped a very lacklustre Ipswich side out in the last round to reach this stage of the competition for the first time in over 40 years, when the late Graham Taylor was in charge at Sincil Bank. Brighton will be a much tougher task than the Tractor Boys, although Lincoln won the most recent FA Cup tie between the sides – despite being one division below Brighton.

Sutton v Leeds (see televised matches)

Only previous meeting: a Fourth Round tie in January 1970, which Leeds won 6-0. They went on to reach the final, which they lost in a replay at Old Trafford after a thrilling 2-2 draw on a Wembley in the last FA Cup final to be held in April – supposedly to help the England team have enough time to prepare for the defence of the World Cup in Mexico.

There are five league games tomorrow and a full midweek programme next week, but I’ll update as we go along and I’ll be back next Friday.

UPDATE

A ridiculous weekend. Derby began badly but nearly beat Leicester, Wolves lead for the entire game against Liverpool and recorded a memorable victory and Blackburn, Fulham and Huddersfield won comfortably.

Otherwise it was absolutely dismal. Brentford and Bristol City did as well as was expected, but the rest of the Championship teams were a disgrace. You know who you are: if promotion to the Premier League is your priority, perhaps you should just not bother playing at all and just pay a fine or similar.

Fifth Round Draw:

Blackburn v Manchester United, Fulham v Spurs, Huddersfield v Manchester City, Millwall v Derby or Leicester and Wolves v Chelsea

Game of the Week: Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday

I’ve long been a believer that although the Championship is capable of producing some surprising results in individual games, overall the table doesn’t lie – and despite defeats for Brighton at Preston and Norwich at Rotherham, we go into this weekend with the situation at the top more or less as it was.

Seeing as though Brighton won’t lose that many games this season and Preston did so well against Arsenal in the FA Cup, here’s the highlights – with commentary for a change – from last weekend’s game at Deepdale:

Last week’s game of the week finished in a 2-0 win for Sheffield Wednesday, although the score was 1-0 when Huddersfield‘s Jack Payne was dismissed for a rash challenge on Sam Hutchinson with twenty minutes left…which brings me nicely round to the game of the week: remarkably, it’s being televised.

Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday (this evening, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1 HD)

Last week’s defeat at Preston was the first away reverse for Chris Houghton’s side since losing at Newcastle at the end of August, but the Seagulls haven’t lost at the Amex since September, have kept clean sheets in eight of their twelve games this season and – according to the bookies – are nailed on for automatic promotion. The only apparent weaknesses in their home form is that they need to score more goals in the first half of their games and seem to be vulnerable defensively in the first 30 minutes.

Wednesday are a little bit easier to analyse. Despite winning without conceding a goal at both Newcastle and Huddersfield this season, they’ve struggled defensively against other sides currently in the top half of the table and they’ve average just less than one goal per game on the road, having only scored twice in one of their games away from Hillsborough this season. To put that into perspective, four of the current bottom six have scored more away goals than Wednesday have, which is one of the reasons that although they’re one of the better teams in the Championship, they aren’t one of the best.

Wednesday’s last win at Brighton was in the first game of the 2014/15 season, when Albion were ‘managed’ by Sami Hyppia and only finished six points clear of the relegation zone. This season, exactly half of the sixteen games between the current top six have ended in home wins and although I’m not expecting lots of goals later on, I’d be surprised if Brighton lost at home – although they are due another reverse at the Amex soon.

Honourable mention:

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City

I am on record as saying that Forest looked like strugglers before the season began and so it’s no surprise to me that they’ve performed exactly as I thought they would, even down to appointing – and then sacking – Phillipe Montanier. Furthermore, the unsuccessful takeover of the club seems to have been the last straw with the fans, who were also less than delighted when news broke that Henri Lansbury will probably be leaving. His move to Aston Villa hadn’t been confirmed when I posted this, but I expect it will have been when you read this.

Bristol City have been in free fall since October, having lost twelve of their last fifteen games – which includes blowing leads in four of those matches. So far this season several other clubs in the Football League have sacked managers that haven’t done as badly as Lee Johnson recently, so there must be something about him that the City board sees that the rest of us don’t.

Head to head: Forest have only lost two of their last ten home games in the league against City, but those defeats have come in the last three meetings – and the visitors haven’t lost to a team below them this season.

Televised games: QPR v Fulham (Saturday, 12:30pm) which confirms my theory that Sky Sports are incredibly lazy: the production team will be in the pub by 3:00pm. However Barnsley v Leeds (Saturday 5:30pm) will be an absolute cracker.

Back to the FA Cup again next week, so I’ll see you then.

FA Cup Third Round Preview

Just a quick look this time round as I’ve had some technical issues as well as a hacking cough for most of the last two weeks.

As I’ve been fond of repeating for the last few seasons, we’re lucky if half of the clubs in the Championship qualify for the fourth round and having not had a second tier winner for almost 40 years, there’s no point expecting one in 2016/17.

Championship v Premier League

Considering that six of the eight ties in this category involve the Championship teams travelling to clubs in the Promised Land, I can’t see much hope for an early upset. Sheffield Wednesday visit Middlesbrough in what could be a very competitive game and the Midlands derby between West Brom and…errr…Derby should be worth keeping an eye on, but does anyone genuinely fancy Burton, Reading or Preston causing upsets?

All Championship

With only four guaranteed places in the next round, there’s a chance that whoever takes their opportunities now may stand a chance of reaching the last sixteen. For that reason, Birmingham v Newcastle is potentially the tie of the round in this category: on the other hand, neither Wigan nor Nottingham Forest will want to hang around in the FA Cup if they’re serious about avoiding the drop.

Championship v League One

In one of those quirks of fate that happens when the draw is made, all four of the ties in this category have the Championship clubs at home. I can’t see Brighton or Huddersfield having much trouble with MK Dons and Port Vale respectively, but there’s a possibility that Bristol City and Rotherham might find Fleetwood or Oxford too much to handle.

There’s only one game where a Championship club takes on one from League 2: Barnsley travel to Blackpool. On paper, both of the ties between sides from the Championship and non-league teams ought to be straightforward for both Brentford and Ipswich, although neither Eastleigh or Lincoln are mugs.

Televised games: Manchester United v Reading (BT Sport 1, 12:30pm tomorrow), Preston v Arsenal (BT Sport 1, 5:30pm tomorrow) and Spurs v Aston Villa (BBC 1, 4:00pm Sunday). The draw for the fourth round will be on Monday, I’ll probably update as the weekend progresses and I’ll be back next week.

Update: Leeds, Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Huddersfield, Blackburn, Wolves, Derby and Wigan all won at the first time of asking over the weekend. Birmingham, Newcastle, Barnsley, Bristol City, Ipswich (against Lincoln!) and Norwich all face replays, so there are currently ten guaranteed places for Championship clubs in the fourth round.

So far the only confirmed fourth round ties involving Championship teams are:

Fulham v Hull, Chelsea v Brentford, Rochdale v Huddersfield, Derby v Leicester and Manchester United v Wigan. If Ipswich win at Lincoln in the replay, they’ll host Brighton in the next round and if Barnsley beat Blackpool in their replay they’ll travel to Blackburn.

I’ll be back on Thursday, in time for the Reading/QPR clash that evening.

2016 Sky Bet Championship Christmas Preview

I’m going to kick off this post with the news that Gary Rowett was sacked as Birmingham boss on Wednesday for no other apparent reason than the new Chinese owners wanted Gianfranco Zola to take over at St. Andrew’s. The Blues are currently eighth in the table, one point away from the top six: this is a classic case of something I’ve moaned about for years, so apart from registering my sympathy with Blues fans and being pretty sure that Zola – who hasn’t managed in the Championship for three years and has been sacked from his last two jobs – won’t last a full year.

Long term readers – if there are any – will know that how the table looks on Boxing Day usually has a profound impact on the rest of the season. The year I’m a bit pushed for time so I’m only going to look back at the past five seasons rather than the last ten, but even then the correlation between the table on December 26th and the final table is remarkable. Here are the highlights:

In four of the last five seasons, the team that was top of the table on Boxing Day was promoted – although not necessarily as Champions. Derby were top of the table on December 26th 2015 but eventually finished fifth.
In four of the last five seasons, three teams that were in the top six after the Boxing Day programme was complete were eventually promoted. Norwich were seventh on 26/12/14 but won the playoff final.
The club that is bottom of the table at the end of Boxing Day has been relegated in the last five seasons.
In three of the last five seasons, the clubs that were eventually relegated were already in the bottom six positions. In 2012/13 Wolves were 14th on Boxing Day but were eventually relegated after losing four of their last six matches: Portsmouth were relegated at the end of 2011/12 following their points deduction in February 2012 – they were 17th on Boxing Day 2011.

If we assume that those conditions won’t change substantially this season, then we have something of a problem making the rest of 2016/17 interesting. Either Brighton and Newcastle will be first or second on Boxing Day and considering that only two of the ten clubs in those positions have failed to go on to win promotion after occupying those slots at the end of December 26th, then we already have a good idea who will be playing in the Premier League next season.

At the bottom, Rotherham cannot overtake Wigan before December 26th, so I’m afraid going to have to write them off. That leaves two relegation spots and the key stat here seems to be that 13 of the 15 clubs relegated in the last five seasons had been either 20th or lower in the table on 26/12. In this respect, Wigan look as if they’re in trouble too but then it gets very murky. Considering only six points separate the Latics from QPR at the moment, it’s fair to say that one bad run of form could see any of the remaining clubs in the bottom seven playing in League One next season.

So does all of that really mean that the rest of the season is going to be about who wins the playoff final and who is relegated with Rotherham?

What to watch out for over Christmas:

Nottingham Forest could have a big impact on the Christmas programme: they host Wolves and Huddersfield before travelling to Newcastle.

Rotherham entertain Wigan and Burton after their local derby with Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but even if they win both of those home games the Millers still have a mountain to climb if they want to save themselves from relegation.

Blackburn have to play two of the current top six over the next week, with a trip to Barnsley in between.

Gianfranco Zola will go straight in at the deep end with Birmingham: Brighton on Saturday followed by a trip to Derby on Boxing Day – both of which will be televised (see below).

Here are the games to watch out for over the festivities, those in italic are televised, the others are significant matches between the current top/bottom six:

Saturday 17th December

Burton v Newcastle

Blackburn v Reading

Birmingham v Brighton (kick off 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Sunday 18th December

QPR v Aston Villa (kick off 12:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

Monday 26th December

Rotherham v Wigan

Newcastle v Sheffield Wednesday (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Tuesday 27th December

Brighton v QPR (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Derby v Birmingham (3:00pm, Sky Sports 1)

Thursday 29th December

Aston Villa v Leeds (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Rotherham v Burton

Friday 30th December

Brighton v Cardiff

Saturday 31st December

Huddersfield v Blackburn (12:30pm)

Derby v Wigan

Brentford v Norwich (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

I may very well be able to post updates but the next scheduled post will appear either on the last Thursday or Friday of this month. So I’d like to thank you all for reading and wish you a Happy Christmas!

Market Reports: December

Before I start on the market reports, last weekend provided some eventful moments, starting with Newcastle losing at Nottingham Forest and culminating in the three red cards at Sheffield Wednesday. If you’ve not already seen the highlights, here they are – although the incident that lead to Jermaine Beckford and Eoin Doyle being sent off for fighting each other isn’t that clear:

In the promotion market, Newcastle’s recent blip has had no impact whatsoever and if the bookies are correct, both they and Brighton are already as good as playing in the Premier League.

Despite beating Brentford 5-0 last weekend, after five consecutive defeats Norwich not only dropped out of the top six but have also drifted back to the price for promotion that they were before the season began. There are a couple of clubs that might be worth investing in now, but there’s a ‘buyer beware’ warning for both of them: last season’s play off final losers Sheffield Wednesday have remained consistently around the 4/1 mark since the start of the season. If Derby continue their revival under Steve McClaren then the 9/2 available now might look generous in a couple of months time, but as we’ve seen in previous seasons, if there’s one club that is almost guaranteed to blow it at completely the wrong time, it’s the Rams. Of the other contenders, Leeds currently look like legitimate dark horses for promotion. Aston Villa still look overrated to me.

The situation hasn’t changed that much at the bottom. Rotherham could lift themselves off the bottom of the table by Boxing Day, but it’s a long shot and I think it’s wise to assume that the Millers have had it. The remaining question is who will join them, but a new team has joined the contest over the last month. QPR have shortened for the drop since the start of last month and it’s not hard to see why: they don’t seem to be any better under Ian Holloway than they were when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was in charge.

As luck would have it, the top current top six are playing each other this weekend:

Only three of the nine games between them so far this season have ended in home wins (Newcastle beat Brighton and Reading): that might not look like good news for the hosts, but neither Leeds nor Sheffield Wednesday are at home this weekend. The Yorkshire duo haven’t won any of the four games in this category that they’ve hosted.

Brighton v Leeds (7:45pm this evening, Sky Sports 1)

Leeds’ last win at Brighton in a League Game was in a League One encounter at the very much unloved Withdean Stadium in November 2009: the visitors last goal at Brighton was was four years ago. Over the past year, Brighton have only lost four home games in the Championship: this might be more competitive than recent encounters, but if Leeds win it’ll be a surprise.

Newcastle v Birmingham

After losing at home to Huddersfield in mid-August, the Toon reeled off five consecutive wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond to last weekend’s defeat at Nottingham Forest. Birmingham’s win at Brentford at the end of last month was their first away victory since mid-September, but their surprise reverse at home to Barnsley last weekend wasn’t ideal preparation for their trip to St. James’ Park – where they haven’t won a league game since August 2003.

Reading v Sheffield Wednesday

Aston Villa are the only club to have won a league game at the Mad House this season, but the Royals have only scored more than two goals at home in one match in 2016/17. Wednesday have only lost three away games this season and haven’t been beaten since the start of November, but since the turn of the century they’ve only won once in Berkshire: in February 2014, Reading played 80 minutes with ten men after Alex Pearce was sent off and Wednesday won 2-0.

There’s a local rivalry theme to the remaining televised games this weekend: Preston entertain Blackburn at tea-time tomorrow (Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm kick off) and on Sunday it’s the East Midlands showdown between Derby and Nottingham Forest (noon kick off, Sky Sports 1). I don’t expect that either manager will lose his job if his team loses, but you never know…

Back on Tuesday for a quick look at the midweek programme, then it’s this year’s Christmas post next Friday.