Buzzin Championship Football

One of the recurring themes in last season’s Championship campaign was that despite being handed repeated opportunities to overtake them, none of QPR’s rivals ever really took advantage when the eventual champions dropped points. The biggest culprits were Cardiff City: despite having spent most of the first half of last season in second place, the Bluebirds eventually melted down at the business end of the campaign and their dreams of automatic promotion were crushed when Middlesbrough won 3-0 at the City of Cardiff Stadium in May. The rematch is this weekend and is game of the week.

After having made a rash prediction a fortnight ago, I’ve obviously temporarily jinxed both Southampton and West Ham. Having taken the lead against Blackpool at St. Mary’s, the Saints only managed to salvage their unbeaten run thanks to an injury time equaliser by Rickie Lambert after the visitors had taken the lead thanks to a howler by Southampton’s Polish keeper Bartosz Bialkowski.

West Ham didn’t just lose at Reading, they imploded. You have to wonder if Big Sam wound his players up a little too tightly: Joey O’Brien can’t really complain about his two yellow cards for wild tackles, but although there was an element of taunting in Jimmy Kebe’s behaviour towards the end of the game, Jack Collison’s rush of blood was unpardonable and Neil Swarbrick was right to show the Welsh international a straight red card.

Hull won more comfortably at Coventry than the scoreline suggested and are in a good position going into Christmas programme. Despite the amazing comeback by Ipswich in the tea time game at Oakwell, the benefit of hindsight suggests that something spectacular might have been on the cards: prior to the game, there’d only been two other matches in the Championship this season that had featured eight goals: there are no prizes for guessing which teams were involved in a 5-3 defeat at Cardiff and a 7-1 drubbing at Peterborough.

This weekend is the penultimate Saturday programme for 2011 but with each club playing three games being played between Boxing Day and the 3^rd round of the FA Cup, you often hear pundits make the assumption that results over the festive season have a disproportionate impact of the success or failure of a club over the entire season. For example, this time year the three clubs that were eventually promoted were in the top six, while at the bottom half the clubs in the bottom six were eventually relegated. It was a similar story in 2009/10.

It might be more realistic to argue that results over the Christmas period give a long term indication of which direction a club could be heading. Last Christmas Coventry were in the last playoff place: after losing at Cardiff the Sky Blues only won one of their next sixteen games and have been in decline ever since. On the other hand, Middlesbrough were in the bottom six last Christmas but a 3-1 win at Preston was the start of a five game unbeaten run that effectively kick started their season.

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, Tony Mowbray’s finest 90 minutes in charge of Middlesbrough was their first win in Cardiff since October 1970. The end of season victory was as important for Boro as it was damaging for Cardiff: Mowbray’s side have shown that their form at the end of last season wasn’t a fluke. On the other hand, Cardiff have been rebuilt by Malky McKay – only two of the side that collapsed against Middlesbrough back in May played against Millwall last weekend – and are actually performing at a slightly better level than they were last season. There’s a clear incentive for both sides to go for the win this weekend as there’s a mathematical possibility that if this game produces a winner and West Ham fail to beat Barnsley, then either Cardiff or Boro could go second.

The big game at the wrong end of the table features two clubs that currently have a lot in common. Nottingham Forest are learning the same lesson as Bristol City did a year ago: when you have three managers in a calendar year, a collapse in home form and forget how to score goals it’s hard to be successful in the Championship. Although Messers McInnes and Cotterill were taken on to reverse the decline in South Bristol and the east bank of the Trent, it’s increasingly looking as if Steve Cotterill may have the harder job. The Forest boss could benefit from history this weekend though as Bristol City’s record against Forest at Ashton Gate is dire: the Robins haven’t beaten Forest in the league since December 1974 despite having had ten opportunities to do so. Four of the last six games between the sides in South Bristol have ended in draws – a result that neither side needs right now.

There are two televised games this weekend: if you don’t mind interrupting your Sunday lunch, the South Coast derby between Portsmouth and Southampton should be worth watching on (BBC2, 1:00pm) especially as it’s only the fourth league meeting at Fratton Park since Southampton won the FA Cup in 1976 and the third meeting in all competitions this century. Pompey’s home form is as good as any of the promotion contenders while it’s worth remembering that Southampton haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since August and lost their last two away games to sides in the bottom six.

On Monday night The Bleak Old Shop Of Stuff is on BBC2, which might have been a better name for Crystal Palace v Birmingham City (Sky Sports 7:45pm), which is the last game in the Championship before Christmas. Neither club has been in a particularly good run of form recently – despite knocking Manchester United out of the Carling Cup Palace haven’t won at Selhurst Park or scored more than one goal in a league game since mid October, while Birmingham have lost four of their last five games and have failed to score in three of those.

All being well I’ll be back before the end of next week with an overview of the games over the holiday period, but I’ll wish you all a Happy Christmas now just in case I get sidetracked by repeats of the Morecambe & Wise Show combined too many mince pies and glasses of port…

The FA Cup presents a unique set of challenges for Championship clubs: the extra revenue generated by a run in the oldest knockout competition in the world is always welcome, but as it’s been over three decades since a second tier side won the cup. The competition is also a distraction from the league but having said that, five of the last 20 finalists are currently playing in the Championship (Cardiff, Millwall, Portsmouth, Southampton and West Ham) with both Cardiff and Millwall reaching the final as Championship clubs in the last decade.

Seven clubs will be playing Premier League sides with half of them having home ties, although it seems odd writing about Burnley’s trip to Norwich as it was only last season that this would have been a league game. Barnley’s game against Swansea at Oakwell could be the best chance of an ‘upset’ even though once again this was league fixture in 2010/11. At the other end of the telescope, Portsmouth have to visit Chelsea in a repeat of the 2010 final but given Pompey’s poor away form I’d be surprised if that tie finished with a 1-0 scoreline this time round.

The Championship is guaranteed at least four clubs in the fourth round: Nottingham Forest play Leicester City, Southampton travel to Coventry, Derby entertain Crystal Palace and Hull take on Ipswich at the KC Stadium. That leaves nine clubs playing opposition below the Championship, although at the moment only Brighton (who will be playing Wrexham in the first FA Cup tie at the Amex Stadium) are the only club playing opposition outside the football league. If Fleetwood Town beat Yeovil in next Tuesday’s replay then Blackpool will have to make the seven mile trip north to visit the Trawlermen.

The FA Cup ties don’t take place until next month and so it’s back to league action – and there were some real coupon busters last weekend. Billy Sharp scored the only goal of the game as Doncaster Rovers beat Southampton and Burnley came from behind to beat West Ham at Upton Park for the first time since 1973. Those results meant that the goal that Kenny Miller scored for Cardiff against Birmingham on Sunday lunchtime was very significant: the Bluebirds could overtake West Ham this weekend but more of that later. Middlesbrough needed some questionable referring at Ashton Gate to record their sixth win away from home this season, while Hull’s two wins in the space of a week means they’re back in the top six.

At the bottom of the table, Coventry’s defeat at Portsmouth and Doncaster’s surprise win means that Sky Blues fans could be facing a very miserable Christmas as their team is now rock bottom. Nottingham Forest  join them in the bottom three – since Steve Cotterill took over in mid October, Forest have lost five of their nine league games and have failed to score in their last three.

There are two televised games this weekend: the first is between Southampton v Blackpool (Sky Sports 2, 12:45pm) both of whom were outside the Championship last season but have made good starts in 2011/12. Although the Tangerines won the last time these two met in the league, it’s not been a happy hunting ground for them over the years and considering Saints impressive home record Ian Holloway’s side could struggle at St. Mary’s.

Although there’s no outstanding candidate for game of the week, there are a couple of 3:00pm kick offs that could be worth keeping an eye on as they involve teams at either end of the table. If Cardiff City win at the New Den and West Ham lose at Reading, the Bluebirds will move into the second automatic promotion spot – although it’s a big if as the Welsh club haven’t won at Millwall since September 1982 and the last four league games between the sides in South London have ended all square.

Hull travel to the Ricoh Arena having lost two of their last three away games but there are some signs that caretaker manager Nicky Barmby has removed the ‘defence first’ mentality that characterised the Tigers under Nigel Pearson. To make matters even worse for the hosts, they’re still far too reliant on Lukas Jutkiewicz for goals: rumours are beginning to circulate that Coventry’s leading scorer could be on the way to Southampton during the transfer window – a move that would ensure the short term financial future of the club but would appear to cast doubts over their future as a Championship team.

The teatime game is Barnsley v Ipswich (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm) – under the management of former Rochdale boss Keith Hill the Tykes have quietly crept up the table and are now just three points off the playoff positions. There are no household names in the Barnsley side, but when you’ve got a promising young goalscoring defender like Jacob Butterfield playing behind Craig Davies and Ricardo Vaz Te then you probably don’t need them. I wasn’t very complimentary about the Tractor Boys last week and despite taking the lead against Watford on Saturday thanks to Keith Andrews, two goals in four minutes meant a seventh consecutive defeat for Paul Jewel’s side, who are now only outside the bottom three on goal difference.

The winners of manager of the month and player of the month awards for November were announced on Friday afternoon and although I don’t normally mention them, under the circumstances I think it’s worth highlighting that Billy Sharp of Doncaster Rovers won the award for player of the month.  In case anyone’s forgotten Sharp’s story, you can read it here: he deserves an award – however inconsequential – after the terrible few weeks he’s been through.

God Speed – a tribute to Gary Speed from Roy Stannard

God Speed you. Black and white Emperor.
Pure breath of granite hewed from the ground of Flintshire
where dragons fly and the hills sigh for the business of dreaming.
You were already formed as a warrior
As the Merlin alchemists mixed your being together
In the days before the men of Harlech began to sing your name
when your promise whirled and eddied from the valleys,
tendrils of smoke from the miners’ fires gathered
and formed on the terraces of Leeds, Everton, Newcastle and Bolton
where working men admired the chiselled stare, the rapier pass and the Aquila dribble
A club man that darted, never clubbed.
You served in the football trenches with McAllister, Batty and Strachan,
going over the top with them,
comrades in no man’s land, where even the enemy ceased firing to admire you.
You were the midfield General, the Captain and Sergeant of armbands
You played them at your own game
You did not go gently into the night
You were the black on the white, the raven hair and pithead eyes burning coals on the turf.
You saw the whites of their eyes and flayed them with black and white stripes.
And yet, the gentle cleft of your jaw, the downhill saunter of your nose,
were a softer frame for the imperial neck, a pedestal, a clenched life raised in victory,
the full motion slide on grass, cutting your legend into the soil,
a fighter blooding his territory with over 500 battle cries.
Many were victories, but you couldn’t win them all.
Your legend will grow in your passing.
When your foe faced you, you vanquished him.
But when he came to live within, you vanished.
God Speed you. The Emperor who did not fade to grey.

(c) Roy Stannard. 30th November 2011 (for Gary Speed 8.9.69 – 27.11.11)

Well done to both Cardiff City and Crystal Palace who both reached the semi finals of the Carling Cup this week after beating Blackburn Rovers and Manchester United on consecutive evenings.

The Bluebirds reached the semi finals on Tuesday with a straightforward 2-0 win. Rovers’ manager Steve Kean seems to have confused the words ‘forfeit’ and ‘forego’ in his post match comments, but he cannot escape the fact that the Bluebirds deserved the win and are currently only three places behind Blackburn in the league.

On Wednesday evening goals from Darren Ambrose and Glenn Murray helped Crystal Palace beat Manchester United at Old Trafford. While not wishing to lessen Palace’s achievement, it’s probably fair to say that most of the teams in the Championship would have had a decent chance of beating the side Fergie Sr. picked to play the Eagles. As I pointed out last weekend, Palace have been struggling to score recently and the fact they scored two at the ‘Theatre of Dreams’ says more about the quality of United’s second string back four than Palace’s ability in front of goal.

The semi final draw means that there’ll be a club from the Championship in the Carling Cup final for the first time since 2001 as the draw paired the surviving clubs. The first leg will be held at Selhurst Park during the week commencing 9th January with the return two weeks later.

Back to the league programme this weekend and I’m going to make a rash prediction: the rest of this season is going to be about the playoff places and the last relegation place.

Southampton and West Ham have established what might be an insurmountable six point gap at the top: both clubs are averaging over two points per game, which is important as all of the last 20 sides to win the second tier title have averaged at least 2.03 points per game. It’s not unreasonable to expect that one of the top two will fall away slightly but the question is which one.

In playoff terms, the clubs that look likely to maintain their positions are Middlesbrough, Cardiff City (again!), Birmingham City and Leeds, although obviously plenty can happen before the end of the season.

At the bottom, Doncaster and Coventry are both eight points from safety and they’re currently on target to at least equal Rotherham’s meagre 29 point total in 2004/05: the Millers finished were relegated, having finished 15 points adrift at the bottom.

Tuesday’s results meant that there are only two points separating the clubs in 17th to 22nd position, but a glance at the form table shows a very different picture. I’ve mentioned Bristol City’s improvement under Derek McInnes recently, but Sean Dyche deserves a  mention for the work he’s done at Watford in the past month: the Hornets are have only lost one of their last six games and could have taken more than a point from Bristol City if Adam Mariappa and Scott Loach hadn’t combined to score a classic own goal.

The biggest headscratcher in the Championship at the moment is what on earth is going on at Ipswich Town. As recently as mid October the Tractor Boys were sixth: six consecutive defeats later and they’re one place above the relegation zone. The quick answer may be the worst defence in the division.

This weekend the games are spread over three days: Crystal Palace play their second televised game in 48 hours when they entertain Derby at Selhurst Park later on (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm). Although the Rams haven’t beaten the Eagles away from home since Septmber 2002, they must fancy their chances: injuries to Sean Scannell and Dean Moxey at Old Trafford could weaken a Palace side that may be exhausted both physically and mentally.

The first game on Saturday is between Leeds and Millwall tomorrow lunchtime but arguably the pick of the 3:00pm games is the  clash between Portsmouth and Coventry. The hosts well documented financial problems appeared to be over but Russian owner Vladimir Antonov stepped down on Tuesday after having been arrested following an inquiry into asset stripping; it remains to be seen if Antonov’s arrest will have any impact on Pompey’s immediate future.

On the pitch, things aren’t that bad at Fratton Park: Portsmouth haven’t lost at home since the end of September and have conceded fewer goals at home than five of the top six clubs. However, their away form is almost as bad as Coventry’s: the Sky Blues haven’t picked up all three points on their travels since beating Portsmouth in April – their only win away from home in the last year.

The last game on Saturday is at Ashton Gate, when Bristol City take on Middlesbrough (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm): the visitors have won two of their last three visits to the South West but haven’t won a game since the start of last month and can’t really afford to drop any more points if they’re going to keep up with the league leaders.

The weekend’s action finishes in Cardiff on Sunday lunchtime, when Birmingham City are the visitors in a game that was moved due to both a rugby union international and Blues’ game in Braga on Wednesday night. It’s an important game for both sides: although Cardiff can’t overtake West Ham they can establish themselves in third place if they win and Middlesbrough fail to win at the other end of the Severn Bridge on Saturday evening. Birmingham are running out of games in hand (they play Hull on Wednesday night) and could do their playoff chances a lot of good with a win: under those circumstances it’s probably pointing out that there’s not been a draw between these two in a league game in South Wales for nearly 40 years…

What an eventful weekend in the nPower Championship; tonight’s midweek games in two different competitions should be just exciting and may have implications outside the competition.

If you believe the bookies then only Cardiff City of our two remaining representatives have much chance of reaching the semi finals. The last time the Bluebirds met Blackburn Rovers in South Wales was in the FA Cup at Ninian Park in January 2005; the game finished 1-1 and Rovers won the replay at Ewood Park. However, poor form in the Premier League, fan unrest surrounding the manager and the board and the prospect of appearing in these posts next season mean that if Cardiff win it could be the last straw at Blackburn.

At the weekend, Bristol City’s victory over Southampton showed exactly how competitive and surprising the football league is, both Burnley and Reading came from behind to win away from home and Leeds managed to go up the table despite losing to Barnsley at Elland Road.

Overall, the gaps at the top and bottom have closed up: West Ham could overtake Southampton if results go the right way tonight, while the bottom half of the table could be unrecognisable by Sunday morning.

Unfortunately, we also had plastic bottles thrown on to the pitch at Selhurst Park during the South London derby and the entire weekend was overshadowed by Gary Speed’s untimely death. Speed began his short managerial career in the Championship with Sheffield United last season, but was at Bramhall Lane for less than two months before being appointed as Wales manager.

Game of the evening in the league is Middlesbrough against West Ham at the Riverside, but a quick look at the form book is inconclusive other than suggesting that a stalemate is highly likely – even though the Hammers have only won one of their last ten trips to Teeside.

Once again though, it’s the bottom of the table where the situation is most fluid. Coventry and Doncaster both lost on Saturday and are now six points behind Bristol City and seven points from safety: both clubs have one fewer point than Preston did at this stage last season and we all know how that turned out.

Doncaster travel to Millwall in their first away game against a team in the current bottom six: the Lions have already beaten both Coventry and Nottingham Forest at the New Den this season and even though they’re currently in the middle of the roughest patch of form since they were promoted, Kenny Jackett’s side don’t look as if they’ll lose this one.

The most intriguing game at the wrong end of the table is Bristol City’s trip to Watford: the Robins have won three of their last four trips to Vicarage Road and could move out of the bottom three with a win. Watford’s precarious position is based on their away form and although they’ve won three on the bounce at home and seem to have tightened up defensively in recent games, it’s probably the worst time for them to run into tonight’s opponents.

Tomorrow night Crystal Palace will be attempting the seemingly impossible at Old Trafford in the Carling Cup: they’ve not beaten Manchester United since December 1989, they haven’t scored an away goal since the end of last month and haven’t scored a goal in any competition since Jermain Easter’s penalty against Southampton in the Carling Cup.

I’ll be back later in the week with a roundup of the midweek action, which starts on Friday night when Palace – who’ll probably be exhausted by then – play Derby.